Towards an operational nowcast/forecast system for the U.S. east coast

Abstract Short- to medium-range (1–5 day) forecasts of extratropical cyclones around North America and its adjacent oceans are verified within the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during the 2002–07 cool seasons (October–March). Cyclones in the immediate lee of the Rockies and U.S. Great Plains have 25%–50% smaller pressure errors than other regions after hour 36. The central pressure and displacement errors are largest over the central and eastern Pacific for the 42–72-h forecast, while the western and central Atlantic pressure errors for 96–120 h are similar to the central and eastern Pacific. For relatively strong cyclones, the western Atlantic and central/eastern Canada pressure errors are larger than those for the Pacific by 108–120 h. There are large spatial variations in the central pressure biases at 72–120 h, with overdeepened GFS cyclones (negative errors) extending from the northern Pacific and Bering Strait eastward to western Canada, while underdeepened GFS cyclones (positive errors) occur across northeast Canada and just east of the U.S. east coast. GFS cyclone tracks and spatial composites using the daily NCEP reanalysis are used to illustrate flow patterns and source regions for some of the large GFS cyclone errors and biases. Relatively large central pressure errors over the central Pacific early in the forecast (30 h) spread eastward over Canada by 66 h and the eastern United States by 84 h. The underdeepened GFS cyclone errors (>1.5 standard deviations) at day 4 over the western Atlantic are associated with an anomalous ridge over the western United States and trough over the eastern United States, and most of the underdeepening occurs with cyclones tracking east-northeastward across the Gulf Stream. Many of the overdeepened cyclones have tracks more parallel to the U.S. east coast. The underdeepened cyclones over the central and eastern Pacific tend to occur farther south (35°–45°N) than the overdeepened events.

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Development of a Real-Time Regional Ocean Forecast System with Application to a Domain off the U.S. East Coast

Marine Technology Society Journal ◽

10.4031/002533204787522424 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 38 (1) ◽

pp. 61-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Laurence C. Breaker ◽

Desiraju B. Rao ◽

John G.W. Kelley ◽

Ilya Rivin

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

East Coast ◽

Weather Prediction ◽

Forecast Model ◽

The United States ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Forecast System ◽

Environmental Prediction ◽

The U.S

This paper discusses the needs to establish a capability to provide real-time regional ocean forecasts and the feasibility of producing them on an operational basis. Specifically, the development of a Regional Ocean Forecast System using the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) as a prototype and its application to the East Coast of the U.S. are presented. The ocean forecasts are produced using surface forcing from the Eta model, the operational mesoscale weather prediction model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). At present, the ocean forecast model, called the East Coast-Regional Ocean Forecast System (EC-ROFS) includes assimilation of sea surface temperatures from in situ and satellite data and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimeters. Examples of forecast products, their evaluation, problems that arose during the development of the system, and solutions to some of those problems are also discussed. Even though work is still in progress to improve the performance of EC-ROFS, it became clear that the forecast products which are generated can be used by marine forecasters if allowances for known model deficiencies are taken into account. The EC-ROFS became fully operational at NCEP in March 2002, and is the first forecast system of its type to become operational in the civil sector of the United States.

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Assimilation of SST Data into a Real-Time Coastal Ocean Forecast System for the U.S. East Coast*

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0670:aosdia>2.0.co;2 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 670-690 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

John G. W. Kelley ◽

David W. Behringer ◽

H. Jean Thiebaux ◽

Bhavani Balasubramaniyan

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

East Coast ◽

Coastal Ocean ◽

Forecast System ◽

The U.S

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Digital mosaics of the GLORIA sidescan sonar data of the U.S. Atlantic East Coast

Open-File Report ◽

10.3133/ofr97853 ◽

1997 ◽

Author(s):

V.F. Paskevich

Keyword(s):

East Coast ◽

Sidescan Sonar ◽

The U.S

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Carbon Capture and Storage Potential Offshore the U.S. East Coast: New Methods and Insights from Legacy Seismic Data

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3365637 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Will Fortin ◽

Dave Goldberg ◽

Angela Slagle

Keyword(s):

Seismic Data ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

East Coast ◽

Carbon Capture And Storage ◽

New Methods ◽

Storage Potential ◽

And Storage ◽

The U.S

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LACK OF TAPHONOMIC BIAS IN THE RECORD OF DRILLING PREDATION FOR PLEISTOCENE BIVALVES FROM NORTH CAROLINA AND THE GASTROPOD CREPIDULA FROM BEACH ASSEMBLAGES ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST

10.1130/abs/2018se-312245 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Patricia H. Kelley ◽

◽

Kimberly A. Cooke ◽

Bridget T. Kelly ◽

Christy C. Visaggi

Keyword(s):

North Carolina ◽

East Coast ◽

Drilling Predation ◽

The U.S

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Social Samaritan Justice: When and Why Needy Fellow Citizens Have a Right to Assistance

American Political Science Review ◽

10.1017/s0003055415000490 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 109 (4) ◽

pp. 735-749 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

LAURA VALENTINI

Keyword(s):

East Coast ◽

Double Standard ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Material Resources ◽

Resource Transfers ◽

Political Communities ◽

The Needy ◽

The U.S ◽

Do So

In late 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the U.S., causing much suffering and devastation. Those who could have easily helped Sandy's victims had a duty to do so. But was this a rightfully enforceable duty of justice, or a nonenforceable duty of beneficence? The answer to this question is often thought to depend on the kind of help offered: the provision of immediate bodily services is not enforceable; the transfer of material resources is. I argue that this double standard is unjustified, and defend a version of what I call “social samaritanism.” On this view, within political communities, the duty to help the needy—whether via bodily services or resource transfers—is always an enforceable demand of justice, except when the needy are reckless; across independent political communities, it is always a matter of beneficence. I defend this alternative double standard, and consider its implications for the case of Sandy.

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Predicting Temperature Shifts off the U.S. East Coast

Eos ◽

10.1029/2016eo054307 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 97 ◽

Author(s):

Sarah Stanley

Keyword(s):

East Coast ◽

Relative Importance ◽

Ocean Temperature ◽

Middle Atlantic Bight ◽

Atmospheric Processes ◽

Middle Atlantic ◽

New Research ◽

The U.S

New research reveals the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric processes in year-to-year changes in ocean temperature along the Middle Atlantic Bight.

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