Development of a Real-Time Regional Ocean Forecast System with Application to a Domain off the U.S. East Coast

2004 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence C. Breaker ◽  
Desiraju B. Rao ◽  
John G.W. Kelley ◽  
Ilya Rivin
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The U.S

This paper discusses the needs to establish a capability to provide real-time regional ocean forecasts and the feasibility of producing them on an operational basis. Specifically, the development of a Regional Ocean Forecast System using the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) as a prototype and its application to the East Coast of the U.S. are presented. The ocean forecasts are produced using surface forcing from the Eta model, the operational mesoscale weather prediction model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). At present, the ocean forecast model, called the East Coast-Regional Ocean Forecast System (EC-ROFS) includes assimilation of sea surface temperatures from in situ and satellite data and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimeters. Examples of forecast products, their evaluation, problems that arose during the development of the system, and solutions to some of those problems are also discussed. Even though work is still in progress to improve the performance of EC-ROFS, it became clear that the forecast products which are generated can be used by marine forecasters if allowances for known model deficiencies are taken into account. The EC-ROFS became fully operational at NCEP in March 2002, and is the first forecast system of its type to become operational in the civil sector of the United States.

scholarly journals A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (4) ◽  
pp. 1669-1694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley G. Benjamin ◽  
Stephen S. Weygandt ◽  
John M. Brown ◽  
Ming Hu ◽  
Curtis R. Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract The Rapid Refresh (RAP), an hourly updated assimilation and model forecast system, replaced the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as an operational regional analysis and forecast system among the suite of models at the NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in 2012. The need for an effective hourly updated assimilation and modeling system for the United States for situational awareness and related decision-making has continued to increase for various applications including aviation (and transportation in general), severe weather, and energy. The RAP is distinct from the previous RUC in three primary aspects: a larger geographical domain (covering North America), use of the community-based Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (ARW) replacing the RUC forecast model, and use of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system (GSI) instead of the RUC three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar). As part of the RAP development, modifications have been made to the community ARW model (especially in model physics) and GSI assimilation systems, some based on previous model and assimilation design innovations developed initially with the RUC. Upper-air comparison is included for forecast verification against both rawinsondes and aircraft reports, the latter allowing hourly verification. In general, the RAP produces superior forecasts to those from the RUC, and its skill has continued to increase from 2012 up to RAP version 3 as of 2015. In addition, the RAP can improve on persistence forecasts for the 1–3-h forecast range for surface, upper-air, and ceiling forecasts.

scholarly journals Assimilation of SST Data into a Real-Time Coastal Ocean Forecast System for the U.S. East Coast*

2002 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 670-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
John G. W. Kelley ◽  
David W. Behringer ◽  
H. Jean Thiebaux ◽  
Bhavani Balasubramaniyan
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessie C. Carman ◽  
Daniel P. Eleuterio ◽  
Timothy C. Gallaudet ◽  
Gerald L. Geernaert ◽  
Patrick A. Harr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Department Of Energy ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Interagency Coordination ◽  
Research Technology ◽  
Prediction Capability ◽  
The U.S

Abstract The United States has had three operational numerical weather prediction centers since the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit was closed in 1958. This led to separate paths for U.S. numerical weather prediction, research, technology, and operations, resulting in multiple community calls for better coordination. Since 2006, the three operational organizations—the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Navy, and the National Weather Service—and, more recently, the Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, have been working to increase coordination. This increasingly successful effort has resulted in the establishment of a National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) office with responsibility to further interagency coordination and collaboration. It has also resulted in sharing of data through an operational global ensemble, common software standards, and model components among the agencies. This article discusses the drivers, the progress, and the future of interagency collaboration.

scholarly journals Characteristics of convective snow bands along the Swedish east coast

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Jeworrek ◽  
Lichuan Wu ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Anna Rutgersson
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Precipitation Rate ◽  
Shallow Convection

Abstract. Convective snow bands develop in response to a cold air outbreak from the continent or the frozen sea over the open water surface of lakes or seas. The comparatively warm water body triggers shallow convection due to increased heat and moisture fluxes. Strong winds can align with this convection into wind-parallel cloud bands, which appear stationary as the wind direction remains consistent for the time period of the snow band event, delivering enduring snow precipitation at the approaching coast. The statistical analysis of a dataset from an 11-year high-resolution atmospheric regional climate model (RCA4) indicated 4 to 7 days a year of moderate to highly favourable conditions for the development of convective snow bands in the Baltic Sea region. The heaviest and most frequent lake effect snow was affecting the regions of Gävle and Västervik (along the Swedish east coast) as well as Gdansk (along the Polish coast). However, the hourly precipitation rate is often higher in Gävle than in the Västervik region. Two case studies comparing five different RCA4 model setups have shown that the Rossby Centre atmospheric regional climate model RCA4 provides a superior representation of the sea surface with more accurate sea surface temperature (SST) values when coupled to the ice–ocean model NEMO as opposed to the forcing by the ERA-40 reanalysis data. The refinement of the resolution of the atmospheric model component leads, especially in the horizontal direction, to significant improvement in the representation of the mesoscale circulation process as well as the local precipitation rate and area by the model.

50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (5) ◽  
pp. 639-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristine Harper ◽  
Louis W. Uccellini ◽  
Eugenia Kalnay ◽  
Kenneth Carey ◽  
Lauren Morone
Keyword(s):  
Air Force ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
50Th Anniversary ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The United States ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
American Meteorological Society ◽  
College Park ◽  
The U.S

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), National Weather Association, and American Meteorological Society (AMS) cosponsored a “Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction,” on 14–17 June 2004 at the University of Maryland, College Park in College Park, Maryland. Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the United States started with the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) on 1 July 1954, staffed by members of the U.S. Weather Bureau, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy. The origins of NCEP, AFWA, and FNMOC can all be traced to the JNWPU. The symposium celebrated the pioneering developments in NWP and the remarkable improvements in forecast skill and support of the nation's economy, well being, and national defense achieved over the last 50 years. This essay was inspired by the presentations from that symposium.

Towards an operational nowcast/forecast system for the U.S. east coast

1996 ◽  
pp. 347-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Aikman ◽  
G.L. Mellor ◽  
T. Ezer ◽  
D. Sheinin ◽  
P. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Coast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
The U.S

scholarly journals Increasing vertical resolution in US models to improve track forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin with HWRF as an example

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (42) ◽  
pp. 11765-11769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banglin Zhang ◽  
Richard S. Lindzen ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada ◽  
Fuzhong Weng ◽  
Qingfu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Vertical Resolution ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Impacts

The atmosphere−ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model (HWRF) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as an example to illustrate the impact of model vertical resolution on track forecasts of tropical cyclones. A number of HWRF forecasting experiments were carried out at different vertical resolutions for Hurricane Joaquin, which occurred from September 27 to October 8, 2015, in the Atlantic Basin. The results show that the track prediction for Hurricane Joaquin is much more accurate with higher vertical resolution. The positive impacts of higher vertical resolution on hurricane track forecasts suggest that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/NCEP should upgrade both HWRF and the Global Forecast System to have more vertical levels.

scholarly journals A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Real-Time Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF Model*

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (3) ◽  
pp. 964-986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Initial Position ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Forecast Models

Abstract To improve the initial conditions of tropical cyclone (TC) forecast models, a dynamical initialization (DI) scheme using cycle runs is developed and implemented into a real-time forecast system for northwest Pacific TCs based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. In this scheme, cycle runs with a 6-h window before the initial forecast time are repeatedly conducted to spin up the axisymmetric component of the TC vortex until the model TC intensity is comparable to the observed. This is followed by a 72-h forecast using the Global Forecast System (GFS) prediction as lateral boundary conditions. In the DI scheme, the spectral nudging technique is employed during each cycle run to reduce bias in the large-scale environmental field, and the relocation method is applied after the last cycle run to reduce the initial position error. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DI scheme, 69 forecast experiments with and without the DI are conducted for 13 TCs over the northwest Pacific in 2010 and 2011. The DI shows positive effects on both track and intensity forecasts of TCs, although its overall skill depends strongly on the performance of the GFS forecasts. Compared to the forecasts without the DI, on average, forecasts with the DI reduce the position and intensity errors by 10% and 30%, respectively. The results demonstrate that the proposed DI scheme improves the initial TC vortex structure and intensity and provides warm physics spinup, producing initial states consistent with the forecast model, thus achieving improved track and intensity forecasts.

scholarly journals Atmosphere-Driven Cold SST Biases Over The Western North Pacific in The GloSea5 Seasonal Forecast System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajin Cho ◽  
Hajoon Song ◽  
Yong-Jin Tak ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Soon-Il An ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Sst Bias

Abstract The predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast systems is crucial for accurate seasonal predictions. In this study, we evaluate the prediction of SST in the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5) hindcast with particular interest over the western North Pacific (WNP) in which the SST can modify atmospheric convection and the East Asian weather. GloSea5 has a cold SST bias in the WNP that grows over at least 7 months. The bias originates from the surface heat flux in which the latent heat flux bias shows the biggest contribution. We identify the overestimated cloud in the first few days after initialization that causes insufficient shortwave radiation and negative bias of the surface net heat flux. Uncoupled ocean model experiments infer that the ocean model is unlikely the primary source of the SST bias.

scholarly journals A Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model: Theory and an Application to Heavy Rainfall Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (4) ◽  
pp. 1503-1517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fumin Ren ◽  
Chenchen Ding ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Deliang Chen ◽  
Hong-li Ren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Typhoon Track ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall

Abstract Combining dynamical models with statistical algorithms is an important way to improve weather and climate prediction. In this study, a concept of a perfect model, whose solutions are from observations, is introduced, and a dynamical-statistical-analog ensemble forecast (DSAEF) model is developed as an initial-value problem of the perfect model. This new analog-based forecast model consists of the following three steps: (i) construct generalized initial value (GIV), (ii) identify analogs from historical observations, and (iii) produce an ensemble of predictands. The first step includes all appropriate variables, not only at an instant state but also during their temporal evolution, that play an important role in determining the accuracy of each predictand. An application of the DSAEF model is illustrated through the prediction of accumulated rainfall associated with 21 landfalling typhoons occurring over South China during the years of 2012–16. Assuming a reliable forecast of landfalling typhoon track, two different experiments are conducted, in which the GIV is constructed by including (i) typhoon track only; and (ii) both typhoon track and landfall season. Results show overall better performance of the second experiment than the first one in predicting heavy accumulated rainfall in the training sample tests. In addition, the forecast performance of both experiments is comparable to the operational numerical weather prediction models currently used in China, the United States, and Europe. Some limitations and future improvements as well as comparisons with some existing analog ensemble models are also discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document