Motivated reasoning when assessing the effects of refugee intake

Behavioural Public Policy ◽

10.1017/bpp.2018.41 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 1-24 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

THÉRÈSE LIND ◽

ARVID ERLANDSSON ◽

DANIEL VÄSTFJÄLL ◽

GUSTAV TINGHÖG

Keyword(s):

Crime Rate ◽

Motivated Reasoning ◽

Numerical Information ◽

Emotional Cues ◽

Percentage Points ◽

Lower Crime Rate

AbstractDo differences in worldview ideology hinder people from objectively interpreting the effect of immigration? In an experiment with Swedish adults (n = 1015), we investigate whether people display motivated reasoning when interpreting numerical information about the effects of refugee intake on crime rate. Our results show clear evidence of motivated reasoning along the lines of worldview ideology (i.e., whether people identify themselves primarily as nationally oriented or globally oriented). In scenarios where refugee intake was associated with higher crime rate, nationally oriented people were 18 percentage points more likely to make the correct assessment compared to globally oriented people. Likewise, in scenarios where refugee intake was associated with lower crime rate, nationally oriented people were 20 percentage points less likely to make the correct assessment compared to globally oriented people. Individuals with higher numeric ability were less likely to engage in motivated reasoning, suggesting that motivated reasoning more commonly is driven by feelings and emotional cues rather than deliberate analytical processes.

Download Full-text

Motivated reasoning, fast and slow

Behavioural Public Policy ◽

10.1017/bpp.2021.34 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-16

Author(s):

Camilla Strömbäck ◽

David Andersson ◽

Daniel Västfjäll ◽

Gustav Tinghög

Keyword(s):

Time Pressure ◽

Motivated Reasoning ◽

Crime Rates ◽

Situational Factors ◽

Behavioral Experiment ◽

Gender Quotas ◽

Numerical Information ◽

Percentage Points ◽

Analytical Thinking ◽

Swedish Sample

Abstract Are people more likely to (mis)interpret information so that it aligns with their ideological identity when relying on feelings compared to when engaging in analytical thinking? Or is it the other way around: Does deliberation increase the propensity to (mis)interpret information to confirm existing political views? In a behavioral experiment, participants (n = 1207, Swedish sample) assessed numerical information concerning the effects of gender quotas and immigration either under time pressure or under no time pressure. To measure trait differences in cognitive sophistication, we also collected data on numeric ability. We found clear evidence of motivated reasoning when assessing both the effects of gender quotas on companies’ financial results and the effect of refugee intake on crime rates. Subjects who prioritized equality over liberty on the labor market were 13 percentage points less likely to correctly assess numerical information depicting that companies that used gender quotas when hiring made less profit. Subjects who classified themselves as ‘Swedes’ rather than ‘World citizens’ were 14 percentage points less likely to correctly assess numerical information depicting that crime rates decreased following immigration. Time pressure did not affect the likelihood to engage in motivated reasoning, while subjects with higher numeric ability were less likely to engage in motivated reasoning when analyzing information concerning refugee intake, but more likely to engage in motivated reasoning when analyzing information regarding the effect of gender quotas. Together these results indicate that motivated reasoning is primarily driven by individual differences in analytical thinking at the trait level and not by situational factors such as time pressure, and that whether motivated reasoning is primarily driven by analysis or feelings depends on the topic at hand.

Download Full-text

Crime rate, real earnings management and managerial ability

Corporate Governance ◽

10.1108/cg-02-2021-0079 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Alex Johanes Simamora

Keyword(s):

Earnings Management ◽

Crime Rate ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Efficiency Score ◽

Real Earnings Management ◽

Data Envelopment ◽

Managerial Ability ◽

Content Type ◽

Effect Regression ◽

Lower Crime Rate

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effect of managerial ability (MA) on real earnings management and the effect of real earnings management by higher ability managers on future profitability, at a different level of the crime rate. Design/methodology/approach The research sample includes 864 manufacturing firms-years listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. MA uses an efficiency score by data envelopment analysis. Real earnings management is measured by abnormal activities. The crime rate is measured by logarithm natural of the number of crimes per 100.000 citizens in the region where the firm is headquartered. Data analysis uses fixed-effect regression. Findings MA increases real earnings management in the region where the firm is headquartered with a higher crime rate while MA will reduce real earnings management in the region where the firm is headquartered with a lower crime rate. Also, real earnings management by higher-ability managers gives a signal of better future profitability in the region where the firm is headquartered with a lower crime rate. Originality/value This research contributes to filling the previous gap of managerial characteristics ability-related on real earnings management by providing regional crime rate as a determinant factor of managers’ ethical behavior. This research is the first one to considers the regional crime rate treatment to the relationship between MA and real earnings management especially in Indonesia. This research also provides new evidence of efficient real earnings management for a lower crime rate group of samples to give a signal of better future profitability.

Download Full-text

No Need for Draco’s Code: Evidence from China’s “Strike Hard” Campaigns

Issues & Studies ◽

10.1142/s1013251118500029 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 54 (02) ◽

pp. 1850002

Author(s):

FANG WANG ◽

SHUO CHEN ◽

DAN WANG

Keyword(s):

Measurement Error ◽

Panel Data ◽

Crime Rate ◽

Detection Rate ◽

Crime Rates ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Empirical Results ◽

Pooled Mean Group ◽

Reported Data ◽

Lower Crime Rate

The occasional “strike hard” campaigns against crime launched by the Chinese government provide an opportunity to isolate the separate effects of severity and certainty of punishment on the crime rate. The “strike hard” campaigns increase the severity of the punishment but keep the certainty of the punishment unchanged. We use provincial panel data from 1988 to 2015 to examine the impacts of the two strategies on the crime rate with pooled mean group models. The empirical results show that a significant decrease in crime rates is associated with greater certainty of detection, but greater severity has no significant effect. A 1% increase in the detection rate (a measurement of certainty) predicts about 2.7% lower crime rate. The results are robust even after considering the endogenous nature of punishment policies and controlling for the measurement error in the officially reported data.

Download Full-text

BEZROBOCIE JAKO CZYNNIK KSZTAŁTUJĄCY WSKAŹNIKI PRZESTĘPCZOŚCI

Zeszyty Prawnicze ◽

10.21697/zp.2012.12.3.07 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 165

Author(s):

Maria Szczepaniec

Keyword(s):

Present Article ◽

Empirical Research ◽

Crime Rate ◽

Criminal Behaviour ◽

Research Issue ◽

Main Research ◽

Unemployment And Crime ◽

Lower Crime Rate

UNEMPLOYMENT: A FACTOR IMPACTING ON CRIME RATE Summary The article presents the correlation between unemployment and crime. The main research issue in the present article is the hypothesis that unemployment is a factor determining criminal behaviour. The article presents empirical research which shows that unemployment may affect crime rate in various ways. Sometimes unemployment may lower crime rate, but there are also situations when it raises the crime rate.

Download Full-text

Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime

The American Economic Review ◽

10.1257/aer.20150355 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 107 (1) ◽

pp. 138-168 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

Paolo Pinotti

Keyword(s):

Crime Rate ◽

Regression Discontinuity ◽

Regression Discontinuity Design ◽

Criminal Records ◽

Individual Level ◽

Percentage Points

We estimate the effect of immigrant legalization on the crime rate of immigrants in Italy by exploiting an ideal regression discontinuity design: fixed quotas of residence permits are available each year, applications must be submitted electronically on specific “click days,” and are processed on a first come, first served basis until the available quotas are exhausted. Matching data on applications with individual-level criminal records, we show that legalization reduces the crime rate of legalized immigrants by 0.6 percentage points on average, on a baseline crime rate of 1.1 percent. (JEL J15, J61, K37, K42)

Download Full-text