Floods in a Changing Climate: Extreme Precipitation

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh S. V. Teegavarapu
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Changing Climate

scholarly journals Trend of Extreme Precipitation over Sumatera Island for 1981-2010

Agromet ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
. Misnawati ◽  
Mega Perdanawanti
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Ecosystem Health ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Climate Events

Extreme climate events have significant impacts on various sectors such as agriculture, ecosystem, health and energy. The issue would lead to economic losses as well as social problems. This study aims to investigate the trend of extreme precipitation in Sumatera Island based on observed data during 30-year period, 1981–2010. There are ten indices of climate extreme as defined by ETCCDMI, which were tested in this study, including PRCPTOT, SDII, CDD, CWD, R10, R50, R95p, R99p, Rx1day and Rx5day. Then, the trend was analyzed based on the Mann-Kendall statistic, performed on the time series of precipitation data. The result shows that there was positive trend of extreme precipitation found in most stations over Sumatera, either statistically significant or insignificant. In each extreme precipitation indices, the number of observed stations indicating the insignificant change is higher than the significant one. This research also found that some indices including SDII, Rx1day, R50, R95p and R99p, showed a significantly-positive trend followed by a higher intensity of wetter and heavier events of extreme precipitation over Sumatera. On the other hand, the wet spell (CWD) index shows a negative trend (α=0.05).

scholarly journals Cut-Off Lows and Extreme Precipitation in Eastern Spain: Current and Future Climate

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 835
Author(s):  
Rosana Nieto Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Synoptic Climatology ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Event Simulations ◽  
Main Producer

This study presents a seasonal synoptic climatology of cut-off lows (COLs) that produced extreme precipitation in the Valencia region of Spain during 1998–2018 and uses simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study how extreme COL precipitation may change in a future warmer climate. COLs were shown to be the main producer of extreme precipitation in the Valencia region, especially during the transition seasons. The strongest raining COL events occurred during September–November. Six-day composites of thermodynamic and dynamic fields and precipitation show that COLs that produce extreme precipitation in this region remain stationary over Spain for 2–3 days and tend to produce precipitation over the Valencia region for at least two consecutive days. In the low levels these COLs are characterized by low pressure over the Mediterranean sea and winds with an easterly, onshore component thus fueling precipitation. Comparison of current and future climate ensembles of WRF simulations of 14 September–November extreme precipitation producing COL events suggest that in a warmer climate extreme COL precipitation may increase by as much as 88% in northeastern Spain and 61% in the adjoining Mediterranean Sea. These projected increases in extreme COL precipitation in the northeast of Spain present additional challenges to a region where COL flooding already has significant socio-economic impacts. Additionally, about half of the future climate COL event simulations showed increases in precipitation in the Valencian region of eastern Spain. These results provide important nuance to projections of a decreasing trend of total precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula as the climate warms.

scholarly journals Extreme Precipitation and Runoff under Changing Climate in Southern Maine

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene Yan ◽  
Alissa Jared ◽  
Vinod Mahat ◽  
Mark Picel ◽  
Duane Verner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Changing Climate

Extreme summer precipitation in Central Europe over the past millennium: role of external forcing in enseble of simulations with Earth System models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Zorita
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Earth System ◽  
The Past ◽  
Summer Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Past Millennium

<p>Extreme precipitation in Europe over summer time is one type of climate extreme with strongest impact on societies, at present and over the past centuries. In contrast to mean and extreme temperatures, it is still unclear to what extant the external forcing may modulate the intensity and frequency of this type of hydrological extremes. This contribution focuses on the identification of the impact of external forcing on European extreme precipitation over the past millennium in one small ensembles of simulations with the Earth System model MPI-ESM-P and in the Large Millennium Ensemble with the model CESM.</p><p>Both models realistically simulate the meteorological conditions that give rise to sustained (over several days) strong precipitation, compared to present conditions. The analysis of both ensembles indicates that the role of the external forcing over the past millennium has been weak at most, with individual members of the ensemble providing different timings for period with high and low probability of extreme summer precipitation in this region. This conclusion is also valid for mean summer precipitation.</p><p>This result confirms the evidence obtained from analysis of proxy records, mostly palaeoclimatological records but also historical evidence. This analysis indicates that the frequency and intensity of extreme summer precipitation has been so far independent of the mean climate state.</p>

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