A 10 km North American precipitation and land-surface reanalysis based on the GEM atmospheric model

Environment and Climate Change Canada has initiated the production of a 1980–2018, 10 km, North American precipitation and surface reanalysis. ERA-Interim is used to initialize the Global Deterministic Reforecast System (GDRS) at a 39 km resolution. Its output is then dynamically downscaled to 10 km by the Regional Deterministic Reforecast System (RDRS). Coupled with the RDRS, the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) and Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) are used to produce surface and precipitation analyses. All systems used are close to operational model versions and configurations. In this study, a 7-year sample of the reanalysis (2011–2017) is evaluated. Verification results show that the skill of the RDRS is stable over time and equivalent to that of the current operational system. The impact of the coupling between RDRS and CaLDAS is explored using an early version of the reanalysis system which was run at 15 km resolution for the period 2010–2014, with and without the use of CaLDAS. Significant improvements are observed with CaLDAS in the lower troposphere and surface layer, especially for the 850 hPa dew point and absolute temperatures in summer. Precipitation is further improved through an offline precipitation analysis which allows the assimilation of additional observations of 24 h precipitation totals. The final dataset should be of particular interest for hydrological applications focusing on transboundary and northern watersheds, where existing products often show discontinuities at the border and assimilate very few – if any – precipitation observations.

Estimation of the observation standard deviation error formula thanks to the a posteriori diagnosis

<p><em>Within the UERRA project, a daily precipitation reanalysis at a 5,5km resolution has been realized from 1961 to 2015. The reanalysis was obtained by the MESCAN analysis system which combines an a priori estimate of the atmosphere – called background – and observations using an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme. Such method requires the specification of observations and background errors. In general, constant standard deviation errors are used but more errors are made when high precipitation are observed. Then, to take this effect into account and to avoid a model over-estimation in case of light precipitation, a variable formula of the observation standard deviation error was purposed with a small value for null precipitation and greater values when precipitation are higher, following a linear equation.</em></p><p><em> Desroziers et al proposed a method to determine observations and background errors called a posteriori diagnosis. To use this iterative method, the analysis has to be ran several times until it converged. In this study, the a posteriori diagnosis is used per precipitation class to determine the observation standard deviation error formula. MESCAN was tested using the French operational model AROME at 1,3km resolution and the atmopsheric UERRA analysis downscaled to 5,5km background and combined to the French observational network over the 2016-2018 period. The observation standard deviation error formula obtained by the a posteriori diagnosis is then used in the MESCAN analysis system to produce precipitation analysis over the 2016-2018 period. Results are compared to UERRA precipitation reanalysis over independant observations by comparing bias, RMSE and scores per precipitation class.</em></p>

Evaluation of Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) precipitation analysis using a dense rain-gauge network in southeastern Austria

An accurate estimate of precipitation is essential to improve the reliability of hydrological models and helps in decision making in agriculture and economy. Merged radar–rain-gauge products provide precipitation estimates at high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, we assess the ability of the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) precipitation analysis product provided by ZAMG (the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics) in detecting and estimating precipitation for 12 years in southeastern Austria. The blended radar–rain-gauge INCA precipitation analyses are evaluated using WegenerNet – a very dense rain-gauge network with about one station per 2 km2 – as “true precipitation”. We analyze annual, seasonal, and extreme precipitation of the 1 km × 1 km INCA product and its development from 2007 to 2018. From 2007 to 2011, the annual area-mean precipitation in INCA was slightly higher than WegenerNet, except in 2009. However, INCA underestimates precipitation in grid cells farther away from the two ZAMG meteorological stations in the study area (which are used as input for INCA), especially from May to September (“wet season”). From 2012 to 2014, INCA's overestimation of the annual-mean precipitation amount is even higher, with an average of 25 %, but INCA performs better close to the two ZAMG stations. Since new radars were installed during this period, we conclude that this increase in the overestimation is due to new radars' systematic errors. From 2015 onwards, the overestimation is still dominant in most cells but less pronounced than during the second period, with an average of 12.5 %. Regarding precipitation detection, INCA performs better during the wet seasons. Generally, false events in INCA happen less frequently in the cells closer to the ZAMG stations than in other cells. The number of true events, however, is comparably low closer to the ZAMG stations. The difference between INCA and WegenerNet estimates is more noticeable for extremes. We separate individual events using a 1 h minimum inter-event time (MIT) and demonstrate that INCA underestimates the events' peak intensity until 2012 and overestimates this value after mid-2012 in most cases. In general, the precipitation rate and the number of grid cells with precipitation are higher in INCA. Considering four extreme convective short-duration events, there is a time shift in peak intensity detection. The relative differences in the peak intensity in these events can change from approximately −40 % to 40 %. The results show that the INCA analysis product has been improving; nevertheless, the errors and uncertainties of INCA to estimate short-duration convective rainfall events and the peak of extreme events should be considered for future studies. The results of this study can be used for further improvements of INCA products as well as for future hydrological studies in regions with moderately hilly topography and convective dominance in summer.

NWP verification against own analysis by using a Data Assimilation confidence mask

<p>Numerical Model Prediction (NWP) verification against station measurements from a surface network is affected by sub-tile representativeness issues. Moreover, the station network is often not representative of the whole verification domain (e.g. usually coastal stations are predominant) and large unpopulated regions (such as oceans, Polar regions, deserts) are under-sampled. Verification against gridded analyses mitigate these issues, since they partially address the sub-tile representativeness, and sample homogeneously the verification domain. Moreover, gridded analyses merge station network measurements to radar and satellite retrieval estimates, in a physical coherent fashion, over the same NWP grid. Verification against own analysis, despite quite convenient, is however hampered by its dependence on the NWP background model, which renders the verification “incestuous”, further than being affected by the uncertainties introduced by retrieval algorithms and Data Assimilation (DA) procedures.</p><p>In this study we investigate the use of a gridded NWP own analysis for verification, by applying a mask to reduce the background model contribution. The mask weights the verification scores to account for the amounts of observations assimilated and their associated uncertainty, as estimated from DA. We illustrate the approach by using the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), which assimilates station measurements, radar and satellite-based (IMERG) observations. The CaPA confidence (weighting) mask is dynamic and changes depending on the daily available (assimilated) observations, and on their corresponding DA error statistics; it is defined as</p><p>                                             mask = 1 - var(A-O)/var(B-O)</p><p>where A=analysis, B=Background, O=observations. Where the analysis is identical to the background model, the weighting mask is zero.</p><p>We evaluate the Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), which is the NWP system used as background model for CaPA. As expected, the verification results obtained by using the weighting mask lay between the verification results obtained verifying against the analysis over the full domain, and the results obtained verifying against station measurements. The effects of sub-tile representativeness are quantified by comparing verification results against station measurements to verification results against CaPA for the grid-points co-located with the stations. Finally, the comparison of the verification results against CaPA over the full domain versus the verification results against CaPA for the grid-points co-located with stations, estimates to which extent the station network is representative of the full domain.</p><p>The approach aims to propose a simple -yet effective- better practice for verification against own analysis.</p>

Pluviometric variability, water balance and risk of dry spells in the basin of Paraná River III, Brazil

For the agriculture context, the water balance and precipitation analysis are essential for planning and decision-making. The objective of this work was to carry out the analyse of pluviometric variability, climatological water balance (CLIMWB) and the occurrence of dry spells in the Basin of Paraná River III, Paraná State, Brazil. For this purpose, 43 meteorological data from 43 stations, from 1976 to 2018, were used. Geoprocessing techniques were applied to regionalize rain data, in addition to box plots and probabilities to analyze precipitation and the occurrence of dry spells. A signficant precipitation variability was identified with regional and temporal discrepancies. Despite the Basin of Paraná River III is a rainy region in the Paraná State, the occurrence of dry spells was identified. Periods of 20 to 30 days with no precipitation event in the region they were also frequent, due the annual occurrence risks ranging from 80 to 50 %, respectively. The risk of 40 consecutive days without rain has already proved to be nil. The water balance exhibited sufficient values for agricultural practice with water surplus along the Basin. However, when analyzing dry years, a water deficit of more than 100 mm in a single month can occur.

A 10 km North American Precipitation and Land Surface Reanalysis Based on the GEM Atmospheric Model

Environment and Climate Change Canada has initiated the production of a 1980–2018, 10 km, North American precipitation and surface reanalysis. ERA-Interim is used to initialize the Global Deterministic Reforecast System (GDRS) at a 39 km resolution. Its output is then dynamically downscaled to 10 km by the Regional Deterministic Reforecast System (RDRS). Coupled with the RDRS, the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) and Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) are used to produce surface and precipitation analyses. All systems used are close to operational model versions and configurations. In this study, a 7-year sample of the reanalysis (2011–2017) is evaluated. Verification results show that the skill of the RDRS is stable over time, and equivalent to that of the current operational system. The impact of the coupling between RDRS and CaLDAS is explored using an early version of the reanalysis system which was run at 15 km resolution for the period 2010–2014, with and without the use of CaLDAS. Significant improvements are observed with CaLDAS in the lower troposphere and surface layer, especially for the 850 hPa dew point and absolute temperatures in summer. Precipitation is further improved through an offline precipitation analysis which allows the assimilation of additional observations of 24-h precipitation totals. The final dataset should be of particular interest for hydrological applications focusing on trans-boundary and northern watersheds, where existing products often show discontinuities at the border and assimilate very few – if any – precipitation observations.

Monitoramento de seca meteorológica com dados TRMM para uma região produtora de grãos do Brasil

Dentre todos os desastres naturais, a seca caracteriza-se como um dos mais complexo e pouco entendido. Seus efeitos impactam várias áreas da sociedade, como agropecuária, indústria, saúde, distribuição de água e geração de energia. Os índices de seca utilizados para monitorar, identificar e quantificar a anomalia de precipitação tem como principal limitação a falta de dados representativos da área de ocorrência. As medições de variáveis hidro meteorológicas por satélites oferecem uma boa alternativa na falta de dados de superfície. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar se o uso do produto 3B43 V7 da missão Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) é eficaz na geração da precipitação mensal e de mapas de seca a partir do Índice de Precipitação Padronizado mensal na região médio norte de Mato Grosso. Os dados foram comparados a uma base dados de superfície no período de 1998 a 2017. A validação dos mapas de seca foi feita com base na seca que ocorreu durante a safra de 2015/16. Os resultados indicaram que o produto 3B43 V7superestima a precipitação, mas pode ser utilizado na ausência de dados de superfície, uma vez que o valor do coeficiente Nash-Sutcliffe (ENS) foi de 0,75 e do índice de concordância de Willmott (d) foi 0,93. O SPI estimado correspondeu ao observado, apresentando ENS e índice d iguais a 0,63 e 0,92, respectivamente. Os mapas de seca confirmaram a situação relatada nos boletins do Instituto Mato-grossense de Economia Agropecuária que indicaram diminuição da produtividade em decorrência da falta de chuva nos períodos críticos das culturas da soja e do milho.

Evaluation of INCA precipitation analysis using a very dense rain gauge network in southeast Austria

An accurate estimate of precipitation is essential to improve the reliability of hydrological models and helps for decision-making in agriculture and economy. Merged radar–rain-gauge products provide precipitation estimates at high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, we assess the ability of the INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis) precipitation analysis product provided by ZAMG (the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics) in detecting and estimating precipitation for 12 years in southeast Austria. The blended radar–rain-gauge INCA precipitation analyses are evaluated using WegenerNet – a very dense rain gauge network with about 1 station per 2 km2 – as true precipitation. We analyze annual, seasonal, and extreme precipitation of the 1 km × 1 km INCA product and its development from 2007 to 2018. Based on the results, the performance of INCA can be divided into three different periods. From 2007 to 2011, the annual area-mean precipitation in INCA was slightly higher than WegenerNet, except in 2009. However, INCA underestimates precipitation in grid cells farther away from the two ZAMG meteorological stations in the study area (which are used as input for INCA), especially from May to September (wet season). From 2012 to 2014, INCA's overestimation of the annual-mean precipitation amount is even higher, with an average of 25 %, but INCA performs better close to the two ZAMG stations. From 2015 onwards, the overestimation is still dominant in most cells but less pronounced than during the second period, with an average of 12.5 %. Regarding precipitation detection, INCA performs better during the wet seasons. Generally, false events in INCA happen less frequently in the cells closer to the ZAMG stations than in other cells. The number of true events, however, is comparably low closer to the ZAMG stations. The difference between INCA and WegenerNet estimates is more noticeable for extremes. We separate individual events using a 1-hour minimum inter-event time (MIT) and demonstrate that INCA underestimates the events' peak intensity until 2012 and overestimates this value after mid-2012 in most cases. The overestimation of the peak-intensity is more pronounced during July. In general, the precipitation rate and the number of grid cells with precipitation are higher in INCA. Furthermore, 40 % of the individual events start earlier, and 50 % end later in INCA. Considering four extreme convective short-duration events, there is a time shift in peak intensity detection. The relative differences in the peak intensity in these events can change from approximately −40 % to 40 %. The results of this study can be used for further improvements of INCA products as well as for future hydrological studies in this area.