International economic structures, government interests, and international coordination of macroeconomic adjustment policies

1991 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael C. Webb
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Adjustment ◽  
Adjustment Policies ◽  
International Coordination

Analysts have commonly argued that there has been a decline in international coordination of the kinds of policies that governments can use to manage the international payments imbalances that emerge when different governments pursue different macroeconomic policies. The decline typically has been attributed to a posited decline in American hegemony. In contrast, this article argues that international coordination of macroeconomic adjustment policies (trade and capital controls, exchange rate policies, balance-of-payments financing, and monetary and fiscal policies) was at least as extensive for much of the 1980s as it had been in the 1960s. There was, however, a shift away from coordination of balance-of-payments financing and other policies that have limited direct consequences for domestic economic and political conditions and a concurrent shift toward coordination of monetary and fiscal policies that are critically important for domestic politics and economics. This change is best explained as a consequence of changes in the structure of the international economy. Most important, international capital market integration encouraged governments to coordinate monetary and fiscal policies because balance-of-payments financing and exchange rate coordination alone are insufficient to manage the enormous payments imbalances that emerge when capital is able to flow internationally in search of higher interest rates and appreciating currencies.

scholarly journals Effect of some economic indicators on external debt in Sudan from 2002-2017: أثر بعض المؤشرات الاقتصادية على الدين الخارجي في السودان للفترة 2002-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gosay Mahgoub mohammedsalih Baba,  Abdulazim Suliman Almahal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Paris Club

    aim to determine the type and tracks of the correlation between variables of deficit of government budget، current account deficit of the balance of payments، exchange rate، Gross Domestic Product(GDP) on the total external debt and clarify the impact of separation or independence of South Sudan in September 2011،also the financial crisis in 2008 on variables of paper، the hypotheses included a positive correlation & impact between the independents variables deficit variables in the general budget and the deficit in the current account of balance of payments، GDP on dependent variable external debt of Sudan as the inverse correlation & impact between the exchange rate with total external debt for the period 2006-2017،used historical approach to describe reasons and evolution of the external debt problem of Sudan causes، in addition، analytical descriptive method by correlation test between the independent variables and the dependent variable to determine the relationship type، also used multiple regression model in measuring and estimating the effect of independent variables on the dependent. The results outcome،the cumulative value of bilateral debt and high interest rates (contractual interest and delayed interest) significantly affect the accumulation of Sudan's total foreign debt،،maintain both the deficits in budget and in current account also GDP values a positive correlation of statistical significance and a degree of impact on Sudan's external debt، with Reverse correlation exchange rate، caused from Both of the world financial crisis and the independence of South Sudan in 2011 the، indirect impact on the external debt through its effect of increasing the value of the dollar with a decline of local currency and increasing the budget deficit and its impact on external debt، However، refers the weakness of impact in current account due to growth of gold exports in the period under study. Also the high ratio of bilateral debt owed to non-members of the Paris Club and its high interest rates it is complicated possibility of a solution through the HIPC and others initiatives، The necessary of structural reforms in economic policies by focusing on supporting national production elements as to overcome the obstacles of domestic investment and the abolition of taxes and customs on Alumni projects، microfinance projects، exporters projects as well as trying to follow a rational economic policy using foreign loans in the narrowest limits، and focus on loans on concessional terms،necessary to create an economic partnership between Sudan and creditors countries focus of largest proportion of debts، which is the official bilateral debt (non-members of the Paris Club)، to promote and facilitate the position of Sudan in negotiation of initiative of the HIPC or With regard of interest rate because it is largest and most significant obstruction in Sudan external debt.    

scholarly journals Remittances and exchange rate - Empirical evidence from emerging economies

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-51
Author(s):  
Canh Phuc Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Macroeconomic Risks

The exchange rate plays an important role to trade, investment and macroeconomic risks of open economies. There are many factors that affect the exchange rate such as inflation, interest rates, balance of payments where remittance flows receive more and more attention of economists due to their increase in their values, particularly in emerging economies. This study uses data from 21 countries which are classified as emerging markets in the period between 2001 and 2013 to investigate the impacts of remittances on exchange rate. Through panel data estimations, we found that remittances increase the value of the local currencies, which is not altered by the 2008 global financial crisis.

scholarly journals Albania's Monetary Policy and the Basic Indicators that Effect the Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Bernard Balla
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Consumer Prices

Macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the economy by achieving their goal of price stability, full employment and economic growth. Price stability is the responsibility of macroeconomic policies that are developed to maintain a low inflation rate, contribute to the solidity of the domestic product and maintain an exchange rate that can be predictable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Albania's monetary policy by highlighting the main indicators that can be used as a measurement of the efficiency of this policy in the economic development. The literature review shows that there are many attitudes regarding the factors that need to be taken into consideration when analyzing monetary policies, including the elements of fiscal policies. In the Albanian economy, the prices and the level of inflation are the most important aspects. The Bank of Albania uses the inflation targeting regime, considering that the main indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy is the deviation of inflation forecasted in the medium term by its target level. In numerical terms, the bank intends to maintain its annual growth in consumer prices at the level of 3%. According to the latest reports published by the Bank of Albania in 2019, monetary policy continues to contribute positively to a financial environment with a low interest rate and an annual inflation rate of 2%. Although the inflation rate hit the lowest value of 1.8 % in 2018, a balanced rate was achieved through the reduction of interest rates and risk premiums in financial markets and, more recently, through the tightening of the exchange rate. These monetary conditions are appropriate to support the growth of domestic demand and the strengthening of inflationary pressures.

Chapter 1. The Home Economy

1989 ◽  
Vol 127 ◽  
pp. 7-25
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Regional Pattern ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
The Past ◽  
Alternative Scenarios

On this occasion we have adopted a rather different format for this chapter from the customary one. Part One begins with an analysis of some of the most important developments of the past few years, with notes on the deterioration in the balance of payments, on the fall in the savings ratio and on the acceleration of inflation. Next we discuss some of the problems associated with economic forecasting. We analyse the errors made last year and compare them with the error margins normally associated with short-term forecasts of this kind. We look at the behaviour of the economy at the corresponding stage of previous economic cycles. And we consider the best way of forecasting GDP when there are discrepancies between the measures of its growth in the past. Our central forecasts for 1989 and 1990 are described briefly in the text of Part Two, and more fully set out in the usual tables. We end in Part Three with a discussion of alternative scenarios for the medium term, with particular reference to their implications for interest rates and the exchange rate. An appendix describes the regional pattern of unemployment and the way it has changed since the early 1980s.

The persistence of moderate inflation in the czech republic and the czk crisis of may 1997

1999 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef C. Brada ◽  
Ali M. Kutan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Speculative Attack ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper deals with the exchange rate policy being implemented in combination with the mix of monetary and fiscal measures prior to the speculative attack on the CZK in 1997. The fixed nominal exchange rate may have been retained for too long and the monetary and fiscal policies were inappropriate. It explains the relation between Czech inflation, exchange rate and macroeconomic policies until the crisis of May 1997. <P>While the Czech Republic weathered its currency crisis much better than did most other emerging economies, with the worst damage being a USD 2 billion loss of foreign reserves, the crisis failed to resolve all of the fundamental problems. It gives also some explanations for the persistence of inflation at a level around 10 % until mid-1998.

International Coordination of Fiscal Policies

1988 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vito Tanzi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Controversial Issue ◽  
Main Issue ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
International Coordination

ABSTRACTInternational coordination of macroeconomic policies has attracted much attention in recent years. The main issue has been whether economic performance can be improved by coordination. Although still a controversial issue, many economists have argued that coordination would make a positive contribution to economic performance. This paper deals with the requirements for successful fiscal coordination. It concludes that those requirements are such that the best fiscal policies that countries can pursue are those aimed at putting their house in order.

scholarly journals Financial Market Integration in Pakistan: Evidence Using Post-1999 Data

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1041-1053
Author(s):  
Ahmed M. Khalid ◽  
Gulasekaran Rajaguru
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Multinational Firms ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Pass Through

The recent wave of financial sector reforms and internationalisation in emerging markets has increased perceived interlinkages within various sectors of national financial markets. For example, the existence of a strong linkage between stock prices and exchange rates is a popular topic in academic research. Similarly, changes in stock prices and exchange rates are expected to influence movements in interest rates. A number of hypotheses suggest such a causal relationship. For instance, using a goods market approach, any changes in the value of currency would affect the competitiveness of multinational firms and hence influence stock prices [Dornbusch and Fischer (1980)]. Similarly, the hypotheses of ‘exchange rate pass-through’ and ‘interest rate pass-through’ suggest that changes in exchange rates and/or interest rates could affect stock prices. The portfolio balance model suggests that fluctuations in stock prices influence exchange rate changes.

To devalue or not to devalue?

2011 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-279
Author(s):  
V. Popov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
East European ◽  
Domestic Prices

If there is a negative terms of trade or financial shock leading to the deterioration in the balance of payments, there are two basic options for a country that has limited foreign exchange reserves. First, a country can maintain a fixed exchange rate (or even a currency board) and wait until the reduction of foreign exchange reserves leads to the reduction of money supply: this will drive domestic prices down and stimulate exports, raise interest rates and stimulate the inflow of capital, and finally will correct the balance of payments. Second, the country can allow the devaluation of national currency — flexible exchange rate will automatically bring the balance of payments back into the equilibrium. Because national prices are less flexible than exchange rates, the first type of adjustment is associated with the greater reduction of output.The empirical evidence on East European countries and other transition economies for the 1998–99 period (outflow of capital after the 1997 Asian and 1998 Russian currency crises and slowdown of output growth rates) suggests that the second type of policy response (devaluation) was associated with smaller loss of output than the first type (monetary contraction). The 2008–09 developments provide additional evidence for this hypothesis.

scholarly journals Implications of New Keynesian Theory for Benchmarking of Monetary Efficiency

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oghenovo Adewale Obrimah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Theory ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate

Relative to free floating exchange rate regimes, I find the adoption of a hybrid exchange rate regime induces alternate monetary policy responses within the context of new Keynesian theory. Specifically, while the efficiency with which an economy is managed can be derived from comparisons of effects of inflation or balance of payments on exchange rates within a cross-section of countries that run free floating exchange rate regimes, this is not the case within a cross-section of countries that operate hybrid exchange rate regimes. In countries that operate hybrid exchange rate regimes, the efficiency with which an economy is managed is derived from comparisons of the effects of exchange rates on inflation or balance of payments situations. In so far as measurement of economic distortions are concerned, while relations between deposit or lending interest rates and inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into countries with hybrid exchange rate regimes yield insights into the extent to which inflows of foreign capital induce distortionary effects on price equilibriums, these relations do not yield similar insights within a cross-section of countries that run free floating exchange rate regimes. These findings, generated within the context of new Keynesian theory, identify theoretically appropriate differences in benchmarking of economic efficiency conditional on differences in exchange rate regimes.

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