Known Unknowns: Power Shifts, Uncertainty, and War

2013 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Debs ◽  
Nuno P. Monteiro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Power Shifts ◽  
Preventive War ◽  
Fait Accompli ◽  
Known Unknowns ◽  
Invasion Of Iraq

AbstractLarge and rapid power shifts resulting from exogenous economic growth are considered sufficient to cause preventive wars. Yet most large and rapid shifts result from endogenous military investments. We show that when the investment decision is perfectly transparent, peace prevails. Large and rapid power shifts are deterred through the threat of a preventive war. When investments remain undetected, however, states may be tempted to introduce power shifts as a fait accompli. Knowing this, their adversaries may strike preventively even without conclusive evidence of militarization. In fact, the more effective preventive wars are, the more likely they will be launched against states that are not militarizing. Our argument emphasizes the role of imperfect information as a cause of war. It also explains why powerful states may attack weaker targets even with ambiguous evidence of their militarization. We illustrate our theory through an account of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.

National Capital and National Development: Financing Chile's Central Valley Railroads

1982 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Oppenheimer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Developmental Process ◽  
National Development ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
South American ◽  
National Capital

In studying the economic growth of Latin America, historians of widely divergent viewpoints have tended to emphasize the role of foreigners in the developmental process. As a result, they have often overlooked the efforts of Central and South American entrepreneurs in mobilizing capital and adopting technology to foster the growth of their countries. Chile is a case in point. Like their counterparts throughout Latin America, mid-nineteenth-century Chilean businessmen have been generally portrayed as the followers of foreign interests that dominated the nation's economy. This interpretation, however, has ignored the activity of Chileans in building railroads and promoting various other sectors of their economy. In this essay, Dr. Oppenheimer offers conclusive evidence that Chilean businessmen, closely linked to government—but not foreigners—dominated the two firms that brought the iron horse into Chile's Central Valley.

Stepping in the Shoes of Leaders of Populist Right-Wing Parties

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jolanda Jetten ◽  
Rachel Ryan ◽  
Frank Mols
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Condition ◽  
Baseline Condition ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Economic Context

Abstract. What narrative is deemed most compelling to justify anti-immigrant sentiments when a country’s economy is not a cause for concern? We predicted that flourishing economies constrain the viability of realistic threat arguments. We found support for this prediction in an experiment in which participants were asked to take on the role of speechwriter for a leader with an anti-immigrant message (N = 75). As predicted, a greater percentage of realistic threat arguments and fewer symbolic threat arguments were generated in a condition in which the economy was expected to decline than when it was expected to grow or a baseline condition. Perhaps more interesting, in the economic growth condition, the percentage realistic entitlements and symbolic threat arguments generated were higher than when the economy was declining. We conclude that threat narratives to provide a legitimizing discourse for anti-immigrant sentiments are tailored to the economic context.

The role of affective reactions on investment decision-making

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Rubaltelli ◽  
Giacomo Pasini ◽  
Rino Rumiati ◽  
Paul Slovic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Affective Reactions ◽  
Investment Decision Making

The Second Start of Transformation in Ukraine?

2014 ◽  
pp. 30-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Grigoryev ◽  
E. Buryak ◽  
A. Golyashev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Personal Consumption ◽  
Governance Quality ◽  
Political Turmoil

The Ukrainian socio-economic crisis has been developing for years and resulted in the open socio-political turmoil and armed conflict. The Ukrainian population didn’t meet objectives of the post-Soviet transformation, and people were disillusioned for years, losing trust in the state and the Future. The role of workers’ remittances in the Ukrainian economy is underestimated, since the personal consumption and stability depend strongly on them. Social inequality, oligarchic control of key national assets contributed to instability as well as regional disparity, aggravated by identity differences. Economic growth is slow due to a long-term underinvestment, and prospects of improvement are dependent on some difficult institutional reforms, macro stability, open external markets and the elites’ consensus. Recovering after socio-economic and political crisis will need not merely time, but also governance quality improvement, institutions reform, the investment climate revival - that can be attributed as the second transformation in Ukraine.

Economic Growth: New Problems and New Risks

2006 ◽  
pp. 20-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Rate Of Growth

The economic growth, which is underway in Russia, raises new questions to be addressed. How to improve the quality of growth, increasing the role of new competitive sectors and transforming them into the driving force of growth? How can progressive structural changes be implemented without hampering the rate of growth in general? What are the main external and internal risks, which may undermine positive trends of development? The author looks upon financial, monetary and foreign exchange aspects of the problem and comes up with some suggestions on how to make growth more competitive and sustainable.

At the final stage of the global crisis: Economic tasksin 2017-2019

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Mau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Final Stage ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Growth Stimulation ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
National Trends

The paper deals with the global and national trends of economic and social development at the final stage of the global structural crisis. Special attention is paid to intellectual challenges economists will face with in the post-crisis world: prospects of growth without inflation, new global currencies and the role of cryptocurrencies, central banks independence and their role in economic growth stimulation, new tasks and patterns of government regulation, inequality and growth. Special features of Russian post-crisis development are also under consideration. Among them: prospects of macroeconomic support of growth, inflation targeting, new fiscal rule, social dynamics and new challenges to welfare state. The paper concludes that the main obstacles for economic growth in Russia are concentrated in the non-economic area.

Concealment of Illegally Obtained Assets in Nigeria: Revisiting the Role of the Churches in Money Laundering

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-121
Author(s):  
Kato Gogo Kingston
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Laundering ◽  
Financial Crime ◽  
The Past ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Nigerian Government

Financial crime in Nigeria – including money laundering – is ravaging Nigeria's economic growth. In the past few years, the Nigerian government has made efforts to tackle money laundering by enacting laws and setting up several agencies to enforce the laws. However, there are substantial loopholes in the regulatory and enforcement regimes. This article seeks to unravel the involvement of the churches as key drivers in money laundering crimes in Nigeria. It concludes that the permissive secrecy which enables churches to conceal the names of their financiers and donors breeds criminality on an unimaginable scale.

The role of bank loans in economic growth of troubled regions

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 2859-2877
Author(s):  
N.V. Koloskova ◽  
◽  
G.F. Balakina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Bank Loans
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