At the final stage of the global crisis: Economic tasksin 2017-2019

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. A. Mau

The paper deals with the global and national trends of economic and social development at the final stage of the global structural crisis. Special attention is paid to intellectual challenges economists will face with in the post-crisis world: prospects of growth without inflation, new global currencies and the role of cryptocurrencies, central banks independence and their role in economic growth stimulation, new tasks and patterns of government regulation, inequality and growth. Special features of Russian post-crisis development are also under consideration. Among them: prospects of macroeconomic support of growth, inflation targeting, new fiscal rule, social dynamics and new challenges to welfare state. The paper concludes that the main obstacles for economic growth in Russia are concentrated in the non-economic area.

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Mau

The paper discusses the main challenges of Russian economy at the turning period from contraction to growth. The analysis is based on comparison of global economic trends and special features of Russian performance. Among global problems, it concentrates on prospects of “non-inflation growth”, perspectives of global currencies and the role of cryptocurrencies, central banks independence and their role in economic growth stimulation, new tasks and patterns of government regulation, inequality and growth. In the Russian case, the key topics are prospects of macroeconomic stimulation of growth, inflation targeting, new fiscal rule, social dynamics and new challenges to welfare state. The paper concludes that the main obstacles for economic growth in Russia are concentrated in the non-economic area.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Ergys Misha

The Taylor’s Rule Central Banks is applying widely today from Central Banks for design the monetary policy and for determination of interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to assess monetary policy rule in Albania, in view of an inflation targeting regime. In the first version of the Model, the Taylor’s Rule assumes that base interest rate of the monetary policy varies depending on the change of (1) the inflation rate and (2) economic growth (Output Gap).Through this paper it is proposed changing the objective of the Bank of Albania by adding a new objective, that of "financial stability", along with the “price stability”. This means that it is necessary to reassess the Taylor’s Rule by modifying it with incorporation of indicators of financial stability. In the case of Albania, we consider that there is no regular market of financial assets in the absence of the Stock Exchange. For this reason, we will rely on the credit developmet - as a way to measure the financial cycle in the economy. In this case, the base rate of monetary policy will be changed throught: (1) Targeting Inflation Rate, (2) Nominal Targeting of Economic Growth, and (3) Targeting the Gap of the Ratio Credit/GDP (mitigating the boom cycle, if the gap is positive, and the contractiocycle if the gap is negative).The research data show that, it is necessary that the Bank of Albania should also include in its objective maintaining the financial stability. In this way, the contribution expected from the inclusion of credit gap indicators in Taylor’s Rule, will be higher and sustainable in time.


Author(s):  
Brigitte Granville

Today's global economy, with most developed nations experiencing very low inflation, seems a world apart from the “Great Inflation” that spanned the late 1960s to early 1980s. Yet, this book makes the case that monetary economists and policymakers need to keep the lessons learned during that period very much in mind, lest we return to them by making the same mistakes we made in the past. The book details the advances in macroeconomic thinking that gave rise to the “Great Moderation”—a period of stable inflation and economic growth, which lasted from the mid-1980s through the most recent financial crisis. The book makes the case that the central banks' management of monetary policy—hinging on expectations and credibility—brought about this period of stability, and traces the roots of this success back to the eighteenth-century foundations of modern monetary thought. Tackling fundamental questions such as the causes of inflation and its relation to unemployment and growth, the natural rate of inflation hypothesis, the fiscal theory of the price level, and the proper goals of central banks, the book aims above all to demonstrate the dangers of forgetting the role of credibility in establishing sound monetary policy. With the lessons of the past firmly in mind, the book presents stimulating ideas and proposals about inflation-targeting principles, which provide tools for present-day monetary authorities dealing with the forces of globalization, mercantilism, and reserve accumulation.


Author(s):  
Grahame F. Thompson

At the level of national economies, Grahame Thompson probes the shifting role of central banks, particularly the Bank of England, in handling the manifest inadequacies of free-market economics in the wake of the 2008 financial crash. Although the Bank has not explicitly disavowed market orthodoxy, Thompson finds that there have been distinct shifts away from the practices initiated by the rise of neo-liberal monetary policy forty years ago. While seeking to pilot the UK’s financial system into a leading role in the international economy, the Bank, like its counterparts elsewhere, has also become both the key manager as well as regulator of the national economy. Its championing of ‘quantitative easing’ to try to stimulate economic growth could, argues Thompson, be compatible with the more radical ‘people’s QE’ advocated by the Corbyn camp in the Labour Party. While such a conversion may currently be beyond the mindset of the mandarin class, its possibility and the new-found pragmatism and powers of the Bank, suggests a non-neoliberal government and a reformed Bank, could pursue a more socially sensitive and progressive path.


Author(s):  
Ida I Dewa Ayu Manik SASTRI ◽  
Luh Kade DATRINI ◽  
Ni Putu PERTAMAWATI

The COVID-19 pandemic is a national disaster so the need for arrangements to support the handling of COVID-19 continues to be pursued. The real sector is expected to be able to survive and not terminate employment. The multiplier effect due to the covid pandemic requires government assistance as a policyholder. Taxes are a source of state finance, now changing to a second function, namely the regular function. Government Regulation No. 23, 44, 86, 110 and 143 regarding tax incentives for taxpayers affected by the coronavirus pandemic 19. Of the total 68,101 taxpayers at the Directorate General of Taxes in Bali, only 16,624 take advantage of tax incentives, so it must be investigated why taxpayers do not make optimal use of incentives that should be used to stimulate economic growth. The methodology used in this study is a descriptive interpretative qualitative method. The results of the study found that incentives used by taxpayers have stimulated economic growth, but there are taxpayers who do not take advantage of incentives due to the complexity of procedures and some do not receive information about incentives so that in the future the Directorate General of Taxes needs to simplify procedures and wider socialization.


2007 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 560-578
Author(s):  
Gradimir Kozetinac

This paper considers the role of money, particularly the role of monetary analysis in monetary policy-making. During the last three decades, many central banks changed their monetary policy considerably. In the late 1970s money and the long-run effects of its movements on inflation were in the center-stage of economic policy. Given the breakdown of the relationship between monetary aggregates and goal variables such as inflation, many countries in the world have recently adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy regime. The direct control of money supply lost importance. Central bankers operate in an environment of high uncertainty regarding the functioning of the economy. In such a complex environment, a single model or a limited set of indicators is not a sufficient guide for monetary policy. Monetary aggregates continue to be an important indicator variable concludes the author.


Author(s):  
Maryna Pyzhova ◽  

The article considers state regulation in terms of ensuring fair wages. It is noted that in the transition to a market economy there is a separation of interests of employees, employers and the state. An employee is objectively interested in this if the state and trade unions really guarantee him social protection. Characterizing the role of the state, it is indicated on the one hand that it acts as a subject of social partnership and directs its activities to economic growth. On the other hand, in the event of the need for a sharp increase in wages, the state, using the tax system and other indirect methods, is able to reduce the negative consequences for the entrepreneur from making such decisions. Depending on the influence of certain factors, there are notions of normative and positive role of the state. The question of the insolvability of the problem of measuring the amount of labor is raised. Emphasis is placed on the fact that work is the functioning of the employee, his appropriate activities in production or in the field of services, in the process of which he spends some physical energy and mental effort. It is determined that with the help of the mechanism of state regulation the conditions of balance of interests of all subjects of labor relations are created. The state performs the function of ensuring the general conditions of socio- economic growth. In this regard, both the types of regulation and the mechanism itself are changing, ie the changes relate to methods, methods of regulation. It is concluded that the state needs to take on the organizing function of setting reasonable prices for labor, taking into account differences in the qualifications of employees. Nowhere in the world are there such great differences in wages as in modern Ukraine, which differ in complexity. The transition to a policy of anticipatory growth of monetary income should not be too abrupt, should be manageable and take into account the real situation with the availability of goods and services.


2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jolanda Jetten ◽  
Rachel Ryan ◽  
Frank Mols

Abstract. What narrative is deemed most compelling to justify anti-immigrant sentiments when a country’s economy is not a cause for concern? We predicted that flourishing economies constrain the viability of realistic threat arguments. We found support for this prediction in an experiment in which participants were asked to take on the role of speechwriter for a leader with an anti-immigrant message (N = 75). As predicted, a greater percentage of realistic threat arguments and fewer symbolic threat arguments were generated in a condition in which the economy was expected to decline than when it was expected to grow or a baseline condition. Perhaps more interesting, in the economic growth condition, the percentage realistic entitlements and symbolic threat arguments generated were higher than when the economy was declining. We conclude that threat narratives to provide a legitimizing discourse for anti-immigrant sentiments are tailored to the economic context.


2014 ◽  
pp. 30-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Grigoryev ◽  
E. Buryak ◽  
A. Golyashev

The Ukrainian socio-economic crisis has been developing for years and resulted in the open socio-political turmoil and armed conflict. The Ukrainian population didn’t meet objectives of the post-Soviet transformation, and people were disillusioned for years, losing trust in the state and the Future. The role of workers’ remittances in the Ukrainian economy is underestimated, since the personal consumption and stability depend strongly on them. Social inequality, oligarchic control of key national assets contributed to instability as well as regional disparity, aggravated by identity differences. Economic growth is slow due to a long-term underinvestment, and prospects of improvement are dependent on some difficult institutional reforms, macro stability, open external markets and the elites’ consensus. Recovering after socio-economic and political crisis will need not merely time, but also governance quality improvement, institutions reform, the investment climate revival - that can be attributed as the second transformation in Ukraine.


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