Predicting Calanus Finmarchicus Abundance from a Climatic Signal

1998 ◽  
Vol 78 (3) ◽  
pp. 1015-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Planque ◽  
P.C. Reid
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Calanus Finmarchicus ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Scenario

Long-term fluctuations in the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the north-east Atlantic are compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation index over the period 1958–1995. The strong climate-plankton link previously observed is confirmed and a simple linear regression model is constructed with the aim of predicting the abundance of the species several months in advance. For the years 1993–1995 the model predictions are in accordance with observations, but not in 1996 when the abundance of C. finmarchicus fell, although the climatic scenario indicated that a sharp increase should have occurred. The potential causes of this discrepancy are discussed.

scholarly journals Climate-scale changes of the semidiurnal tide over the North Atlantic coasts from 1846 to 2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucia Pineau-Guillou ◽  
Pascal Lazure ◽  
Guy Wöppelmann
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. We investigated the long-term changes of the principal tidal component M2 over the North Atlantic coasts, from 1846 to 2018. We analysed 9 tide gauges with time series starting no later than 1920. The longest is Brest with 165 years of observations. We carefully processed the data, particularly to remove the 18.6-year nodal modulation. We found that M2 variations are consistent at all the stations in the North East Atlantic (Newlyn, Brest, Cuxhaven), whereas some discrepancies appear in the North West Atlantic. The changes started long before the XXth century, and are not linear. The trends vary from a station to another; they are overall positive, up to 0.7 mm/yr. Since 1990, the trends switch from positive to negative values. Concerning the possible causes of the observed changes, the similarity between the North Atlantic Oscillation and M2 variations in the North East Atlantic suggests a possible influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the tide. We discuss a possible underlying mechanism. A different spatial distribution of water heights from one year to another, depending on the low-frequency sea-level pressure patterns, could impact the propagation of the tide in the North Atlantic basin. However, the hypothesis is at present unproven.

scholarly journals A Regime View of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Response to Anthropogenic Forcing

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1291-1307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Abdel Hannachi ◽  
Brian Hoskins ◽  
Andrew Turner
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Real Change ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

scholarly journals Exploring Combined Influences of Seasonal East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (Nao) on the Temperature-Precipitation Relationship in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando S. Rodrigo
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

The combined influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) patterns on the covariability of temperatures and precipitation in 35 stations of the Iberian Peninsula during the period 1950-2019 is analysed in this work. Four EA-NAO composites were defined from teleconnection patterns positive and negative phases: EA+NAO+, EA+NAO-, EA-NAO+, and EA-NAO-. Daily data of maximum and minimum temperature were used to obtain seasonal means (TX, and TN, respectively), and the covariability of these variables with accumulated seasonal rainfall (R) was studied comparing results obtained for different NAO and EA composites. Main results indicate slight differences in the spatial coverage of correlation coefficients between R and temperature variables, except in spring when the generalized negative relationship between R and TX under EA+NAO+ and EA-NAO- disappears under EA-NAO+ and EA+NAO- composites. This result may be useful to interpret and discuss historical reconstructions of Iberian climate.

scholarly journals Coupled decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, regional rainfall and karst spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy)

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1389-1399 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. De Vita ◽  
V. Allocca ◽  
F. Manna ◽  
S. Fabbrocino
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Karst Spring ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. Thus far, studies on climate change have focused mainly on the variability of the atmospheric and surface components of the hydrologic cycle, investigating the impact of this variability on the environment, especially with respect to the risks of desertification, droughts and floods. Conversely, the impacts of climate change on the recharge of aquifers and on the variability of groundwater flow have been less investigated, especially in Mediterranean karst areas whose water supply systems depend heavily upon groundwater exploitation. In this paper, long-term climatic variability and its influence on groundwater recharge were analysed by examining decadal patterns of precipitation, air temperature and spring discharges in the Campania region (southern Italy), coupled with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The time series of precipitation and air temperature were gathered over 90 yr, from 1921 to 2010, using 18 rain gauges and 9 air temperature stations with the most continuous functioning. The time series of the winter NAO index and of the discharges of 3 karst springs, selected from those feeding the major aqueducts systems, were collected for the same period. Regional normalised indexes of the precipitation, air temperature and karst spring discharges were calculated, and different methods were applied to analyse the related time series, including long-term trend analysis using smoothing numerical techniques, cross-correlation and Fourier analysis. The investigation of the normalised indexes highlighted the existence of long-term complex periodicities, from 2 to more than 30 yr, with differences in average values of up to approximately ±30% for precipitation and karst spring discharges, which were both strongly correlated with the winter NAO index. Although the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had already been demonstrated in the long-term precipitation and streamflow patterns of different European countries and Mediterranean areas, the results of this study allow for the establishment of a link between a large-scale atmospheric cycle and the groundwater recharge of carbonate karst aquifers. Consequently, the winter NAO index could also be considered as a proxy to forecast the decadal variability of groundwater flow in Mediterranean karst areas.

A new species of amphipod, Megamphopus katagani sp. nov. (Crustacea: Peracarida: Photidae) from the Sea of Marmara (Turkey), with a key to the species of Megamphopus in the North Atlantic, Mediterranean and associated Seas

Zootaxa ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 2791 (1) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
KEREM BAKIR ◽  
MURAT SEZGIN ◽  
ALAN A. MYERS
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Of Marmara ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
A New Species

A new species of amphipod, Megamphopus katagani sp. nov., is described from the sea of Marmara (Turkey). A key to the species of Megamphopus known from the North-East Atlantic, Mediterranean and associated seas is provided.

scholarly journals Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1379-1391 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Nissen ◽  
G. C. Leckebusch ◽  
J. G. Pinto ◽  
D. Renggli ◽  
S. Ulbrich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Wind Storms ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract. A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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