scholarly journals PORT WINE, BRAZIL AND THE WORLD ECONOMY: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FROM 1756 TO BRAZILIAN INDEPENDENCE

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 275-300
Author(s):  
Paulo Reis Mourão
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Port Wine ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
The World ◽  
Analyse Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe Douro Wine Company was one of the most emblematic mercantilist companies promoted by the Marquis of Pombal. It was established in 1756 and has played an unquestionably important role in the Port wine market since then. Port wine exports to Brazil were significantly lower than exports to England over time. Generally, the oscillation of Port wine exports to Brazil has been explained by particular episodes in the Douro Wine Company’s business. Employing structural break analysis and vector of error correction models to analyse data between 1756 and 1826, we concluded that Port wine exports to Brazil were robustly explained by the monetary dimensions of the world economy of the time.

Time Series Analysis with Two or More Time Series

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youseop Shin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Memory Effect ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Series Analysis

Chapter Six explains time series analysis with one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the monthly violent crime rates and the independent variables are unemployment rates and inflation. This chapter discusses several topics related to the robustness of estimated models, such as how to prewhiten a time series, how to deal with trends and seasonal components, how to deal with autoregressive residuals, and how to discern changes of the dependent variable caused by independent variables from its simple continuity. This chapter also discusses the concepts of co-integration and long-memory effect and related topics such as error correction models and autoregressive distributive lags models.

scholarly journals Demonstrating The Use Of Vector Error Correction Models Using Simulated Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 377
Author(s):  
Carl B. McGowan, Jr. ◽  
Izani Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Random Component ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Use Of Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models

In this paper, we demonstrate the use of time series analysis, including unit roots tests, Granger causality tests, cointergation tests and vector error correction models. We generate four time series using simulation such that the data has both a random component and a growth trend. The data are analyzed to demonstrate the use of time series analysis procedures.

scholarly journals Did the UN convention on the rights of the child reduce child mortality around the world? An interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Tait ◽  
Abtin Parnia ◽  
Nishan Zewge-Abubaker ◽  
Wendy H. Wong ◽  
Heather Smith-Cannoy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Rights Of The Child ◽  
Reduce Child Mortality ◽  
The World

scholarly journals Association of flavoured cigar regulations with wholesale tobacco volumes in Canada: an interrupted time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael O Chaiton ◽  
Robert Schwartz ◽  
Gabrielle Tremblay ◽  
Robert Nugent
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Sales ◽  
Health Canada ◽  
Over Time

IntroductionThis study examines the association of Federal Canadian regulations passed in 2009 addressing flavours (excluding menthol) in small cigars with changes in cigar sales.MethodsQuarterly wholesale unit data as reported to Health Canada from 2001 through 2016 were analysed using interrupted time series analysis. Changes in sales of cigars with and without flavour descriptors were estimated. Analyses were seasonally adjusted. Changes in the flavour types were assessed over time.ResultsThe Federal flavour regulations were associated with a reduction in the sales of flavoured cigars by 59 million units (95% CI −86.0 to −32.4). Increases in sales of cigars with descriptors other than flavours (eg, colour or other ambiguous terms) were observed (9.6 million increase (95% CI −1.3 to 20.5), but the overall level (decline of 49.6 million units (95% CI −73.5 to −25.8) and trend of sales of cigars (6.9 million units per quarter (95% CI −8.1 to −5.7)) declined following the ban. Sensitivity analysis showed that there was no substantial difference in effect over time comparing Ontario and British Columbia, suggesting that other provincial tobacco control legislation was not associated with the changes in levels. Analyses suggested that the level change was sensitive to the specification of the date.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that flavour regulations have the potential to substantially impact tobacco sales. However, exemptions for certain flavours and product types may have reduced the effectiveness of the ban, indicating the need for comprehensive, well-designed regulations.

scholarly journals Impact of campaign-style delivery of routine vaccines during Intensified Mission Indradhanush in India: a controlled interrupted time-series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Clarke-Deelder ◽  
Christian Suharlim ◽  
Susmita Chatterjee ◽  
Logan Brenzel ◽  
Arindam Ray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Childhood Vaccination ◽  
World Health ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntroductionThe world is not on track to achieve the goals for immunization coverage and equity described by the World Health Organization’s Global Vaccine Action Plan. In India, only 62% of children had received a full course of basic vaccines in 2016. We evaluated the Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a campaign-style intervention to increase routine immunization coverage and equity in India, implemented in 2017-2018.MethodsWe conducted a comparative interrupted time-series analysis using monthly district-level data on vaccine doses delivered, comparing districts participating and not participating in IMI. We estimated the impact of IMI on coverage and under-coverage (defined as the proportion of children who were unvaccinated) during the four-month implementation period and in subsequent months.FindingsDuring implementation, IMI increased delivery of thirteen infant vaccines by between 1.6% (95% CI: −6.4, 10.2%) and 13.8% (3.0%, 25.7%). We did not find evidence of a sustained effect during the 8 months after implementation ended. Over the 12 months from the beginning of implementation, IMI reduced under-coverage of childhood vaccination by between 3.9% (−6.9%, 13.7%) and 35.7% (−7.5%, 77.4%). The largest estimated effects were for the first doses of vaccines against diptheria-tetanus-pertussis and polio.InterpretationIMI had a substantial impact on infant immunization delivery during implementation, but this effect waned after implementation ended. Our findings suggest that campaign-style interventions can increase routine infant immunization coverage and reach formerly unreached children in the shorter term, but other approaches may be needed for sustained coverage improvements.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Nanotechnology and Microelectronics

2010 ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ndubuisi Ekekwe
Keyword(s):  
Technology Diffusion ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Wealth Creation ◽  
National Competitiveness ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Technology Capability ◽  
Gross World Product ◽  
Over Time

For many centuries, the gross world product was flat. But as technology penetrated many economies, over time, the world economy has expanded. Technology will continue to shape the future of commerce, industry and culture with likes of nanotechnology and microelectronics directly or indirectly playing major roles in redesigning the global economic structures. These technologies will drive other industries and will be central to a new international economy where technology capability will determine national competitiveness. Technology-intensive firms will emerge and new innovations will evolve a new dawn in wealth creation. Nations that create or adopt and then diffuse these technologies will profit. Those that fail to use technology as a means to compete internationally will find it difficult to progress economically. This chapter provides insights on global technology diffusion, the drivers and impacts with specific focus on nanotechnology and microelectronics. It also discusses the science of these technologies along with the trends, realities and possibilities, and the barriers which must be overcome for higher global penetration rates.

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