scholarly journals On the Chaotic Nature of Solar Activity

1993 ◽  
Vol 132 ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
J. Kurths ◽  
U. Feudel ◽  
W. Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Dynamical Behaviour ◽  
Chaotic Regime ◽  
Dynamo Model ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Chaotic Nature ◽  
Low Dimensional

AbstractApplying modern techniques of time series analysis, there are serious indications that the dynamics of the global solar activity is a low dimensional chaos. A simple non-linear dynamo model is qualitatively studied exhibiting a rich dynamical behaviour from steady state via some bifurcation to a chaotic regime.

scholarly journals Nonlinear time series analysis of geomagnetic pulsations

1994 ◽  
Vol 1 (2/3) ◽  
pp. 145-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Vörös ◽  
J. Verö ◽  
J. Kristek
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Correlation Dimension ◽  
Deterministic Chaos ◽  
Nonlinear Time Series ◽  
Surrogate Data ◽  
Nonlinear Time Series Analysis ◽  
Geomagnetic Pulsations ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Low Dimensional

Abstract. A detailed nonlinear time series analysis has been made of two daytime geomagnetic pulsation events being recorded at L'Aquila (Italy, L ≈ 1.6) and Niemegk (Germany, L ≈ 2.3). Grassberger and Procaccia algorithm has been used to investigate the dimensionality of physical processes. Surrogate data test and self affinity (fractal) test have been used to exclude coloured noise with power law spectra. Largest Lyapunow exponents have been estimated using the methods of Wolf et al. The problems of embedding, stability of estimations, spurious correlations and nonlinear noise reduction have also been discussed. The main conclusions of this work, which include some new results on the geomagnetic pulsations, are (1) that the April 26, 1991 event, represented by two observatory time series LAQ1 and NGK1 is probably due to incoherent waves; no finite correlation dimension was found in this case, and (2) that the June 18, 1991 event represented by observatory time series LAQ2 and NGK2, is due to low dimensional nonlinear dynamics, which include deterministic chaos with correlation dimension D2(NGK2) = 2.25 ± 0.05 and D2(NDK2) = 2.02 ± 0.03, and with positive Lyapunov exponents λmax (LAQ2) = 0.055 ± 0.003 bits/s and λmax (NGK2) = 0.052 ± 0.003 bits/s; the predictability time in both cases is ≈ 13 s.

Relationship of cholera incidence to El Niño and solar activity elucidated by time-series analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. OHTOMO ◽  
N. KOBAYASHI ◽  
A. SUMI ◽  
N. OHTOMO
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Relationship Of

SUMMARYUsing time-series analysis, we investigated the monthly cholera incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh during an 18-year period for its relationship to the sea surface temperature (SST) linked to El Niño, and to the sunspot number. Dominant periodic modes identified for cholera incidence were 11·0, 4·8, 3·5, 2·9, 1·6, 1·0 and 0·5 years. The majority of these modes, e.g. the 11·0-, 4·8-, 3·5-, 1·6- and 1·0-year modes, were essentially consistent with those obtained for the SST data (dominant modes: 5·1, 3·7, 2·5, 2·1, 1·5, 1·0 years) and the sunspot number data (dominant modes: 22·1, 11·1, 7·3, 4·8, 3·1 years). We confirmed that the variations of cholera incidence were synchronous with SSTs, and were inversely correlated to the sunspot numbers. These results suggest that the cholera incidence in Bangladesh may have been influenced by the occurrence of El Niño and also by the periodic change of solar activity.

NONLINEAR TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF THE GREEK EXCHANGE-RATE MARKET

2000 ◽  
Vol 10 (07) ◽  
pp. 1729-1758 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. ANDREOU ◽  
G. PAVLIDES ◽  
A. KARYTINOS
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical Systems ◽  
Deterministic Chaos ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Low Dimensional ◽  
Bds Test

Using concepts from the theory of chaos and nonlinear dynamical systems, a time-series analysis is performed on four major currencies against the Greek Drachma. The R/S analysis provided evidence for fractality due to noisy chaos in only two of the data series, while the BDS test showed that all four systems exhibit nonlinearity. Correlation dimension and related tests, as well as Lyapunov exponents, gave consistent results, which did not rule out the possibility of deterministic chaos for the two possibly fractal series, rejecting though the occurrence of a simple low-dimensional attractor, while the other two series seemed to have followed a behavior close to that of a random signal. SVD analysis, used to filter away noise, strongly supported the above findings and provided reliable evidence for the existence of an underlying system with a limited number of degrees-of-freedom only for those series found to exhibit fractality, while it revealed a noise domination over the remaining two. These results were further confirmed through a forecasting attempt using artificial neural networks.

scholarly journals Forecasting high waters at Venice Lagoon using chaotic time series analysis and nonlinear neural networks

2000 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Zaldívar ◽  
E. Gutiérrez ◽  
I. M. Galván ◽  
F. Strozzi ◽  
A. Tomasin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Feedforward Neural Networks ◽  
High Water ◽  
Venice Lagoon ◽  
Nonlinear Method ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Low Dimensional

Time series analysis using nonlinear dynamics systems theory and multilayer neural networks models have been applied to the time sequence of water level data recorded every hour at ‘Punta della Salute’ from Venice Lagoon during the years 1980–1994. The first method is based on the reconstruction of the state space attractor using time delay embedding vectors and on the characterisation of invariant properties which define its dynamics. The results suggest the existence of a low dimensional chaotic attractor with a Lyapunov dimension, DL, of around 6.6 and a predictability between 8 and 13 hours ahead. Furthermore, once the attractor has been reconstructed it is possible to make predictions by mapping local-neighbourhood to local-neighbourhood in the reconstructed phase space. To compare the prediction results with another nonlinear method, two nonlinear autoregressive models (NAR) based on multilayer feedforward neural networks have been developed. From the study, it can be observed that nonlinear forecasting produces adequate results for the ‘normal’ dynamic behaviour of the water level of Venice Lagoon, outperforming linear algorithms, however, both methods fail to forecast the ‘high water’ phenomenon more than 2–3 hours ahead.

Dynamical Peculiarities of Concatenational Changes in Functional Cardiovascular Parameters

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (82) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eurelija Venskaitytė ◽  
Jonas Poderys ◽  
Tadas Česnaitis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Functional State ◽  
The Body ◽  
Functional Changes ◽  
High Intensity Training ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Greco Roman ◽  
St Segment ◽  
Standard Lead

Research  background  and  hypothesis.  Traditional  time  series  analysis  techniques,  which  are  also  used  for the analysis of cardiovascular signals, do not reveal the relationship between the  changes in the indices recorded associated with the multiscale and chaotic structure of the tested object, which allows establishing short-and long-term structural and functional changes.Research aim was to reveal the dynamical peculiarities of interactions of cardiovascular system indices while evaluating the functional state of track-and-field athletes and Greco-Roman wrestlers.Research methods. Twenty two subjects participated in the study, their average age of 23.5 ± 1.7 years. During the study standard 12 lead electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded. The following ECG parameters were used in the study: duration of RR interval taken from the II standard lead, duration of QRS complex, duration of JT interval and amplitude of ST segment taken from the V standard lead.Research  results.  Significant  differences  were  found  between  inter-parametric  connections  of  ST  segment amplitude and JT interval duration at the pre and post-training testing. Observed changes at different hierarchical levels of the body systems revealed inadequate cardiac metabolic processes, leading to changes in the metabolic rate of the myocardium and reflected in the dynamics of all investigated interactions.Discussion and conclusions. It has been found that peculiarities of the interactions of ECG indices interactions show the exposure of the  functional changes in the body at the onset of the workload. The alterations of the functional state of the body and the signs of fatigue, after athletes performed two high intensity training sessions per day, can be assessed using the approach of the evaluation of interactions between functional variables. Therefore the evaluation of the interactions of physiological signals by using time series analysis methods is suitable for the observation of these processes and the functional state of the body.Keywords: electrocardiogram, time series, functional state.

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