Time-scales and degrees of freedom operating in the evolution of continental ice-sheets

ABSTRACTComprehensible explanations of the operation of earth climate systems should consist of descriptions of the operation of a few degrees of freedoms. Qualitative interpretations of results from large-scale numerical models generally follow this principle, but do not render formal definitions of the precise nature of such degrees of freedom.At its simplest, ice-sheet kinematics requires knowledge of the evolving height and span. Rheology and surface mass-balance impose different requirements upon the co-evolution of these variables, meaning a two-degree of freedom model is over-prescribed. By means of a perturbation expansion about the analytic similarity solution for viscous spreading, eigenfunctions corresponding to degrees of freedom in the ice-sheet profile are obtained, and are used to decompose mass-balance distributions. Only a few eigenfunctions are needed to replicate numerical models, implying that ice-sheets in plane flow may operate with fewer than ten degrees of freedom.Unstable evolution of ice-sheets can occur, when the operation of a very large number of degrees of freedom can be manifested. Previous work is reviewed and new results for the unstable transformation of valley glaciers into ice-sheets are presented. Phasing of initiation may be an unpredictable phenomenon.

Download Full-text

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1433-1460 ◽

Cited By ~ 50

Author(s):

Heiko Goelzer ◽

Sophie Nowicki ◽

Tamsin Edwards ◽

Matthew Beckley ◽

Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Large Scale ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Download Full-text

Exploring the complex uncertainties in coupled climate-ice simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6693 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lauren Gregoire ◽

Niall Gandy ◽

Lachlan Astfalck ◽

Robin Smith ◽

Ruza Ivanovic ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Last Glacial Maximum ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Glacial Maximum ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Last Glacial ◽

The Last Glacial Maximum ◽

The Last Glacial

Simulating the co-evolution of climate and ice-sheets during the Quaternary is key to understanding some of the major abrupt changes in climate, ice and sea level. Indeed, events such as the Meltwater pulse 1a rapid sea level rise and Heinrich, Dansgaard&#8211;Oeschger and the 8.2 kyr climatic events all involve the interplay between ice sheets, the atmosphere and the ocean. Unfortunately, it is challenging to simulate the coupled Climate-Ice sheet system because small biases, errors or uncertainties in parts of the models are strongly amplified by the powerful interactions between the atmosphere and ice (e.g. ice-albedo and height-mass balance feedbacks). This leads to inaccurate or even unrealistic simulations of ice sheet extent and surface climate. To overcome this issue we need some methods to effectively explore the uncertainty in the complex Climate-Ice sheet system and reduce model biases. Here we present our approach to produce ensemble of coupled Climate-Ice sheet simulations of the Last Glacial maximum that explore the uncertainties in climate and ice sheet processes.We use the FAMOUS-ICE earth system model, which comprises a coarse-resolution and fast general circulation model coupled to the Glimmer-CISM ice sheet model. We prescribe sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations in order to control and reduce biases in polar climate, which strongly affect the surface mass balance and simulated extent of the northern hemisphere ice sheets. We develop and apply a method to reconstruct and sample a range of realistic sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration spatio-temporal field. These are created by merging information from PMIP3/4 climate simulations and proxy-data for sea surface temperatures at the Last Glacial Maximum with Bayes linear analysis. We then use these to generate ensembles of FAMOUS-ice simulations of the Last Glacial maximum following the PMIP4 protocol, with the Greenland and North American ice sheets interactively simulated. In addition to exploring a range of sea surface conditions, we also vary key parameters that control the surface mass balance and flow of ice sheets. We thus produce ensembles of simulations that will later be used to emulate ice sheet surface mass balance. &#160;

Download Full-text

Erosion by Continental Ice Sheets

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0022143000029981 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 23 (89) ◽

pp. 401-402

Author(s):

I. M. Whillans

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Short Distance ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Present Theory ◽

Frictional Heat ◽

Break Up ◽

Basal Melting ◽

Continental Ice Sheets

Abstract Some of the problems with earlier theories for erosion and transport by ice sheets are discussed, and it is noted that those theories cannot simply account for the often-reported finding that most till is derived from bedrock only a few tens of kilometers up-glacier. Considerations of the mass balance of debris in transport lead to the conclusion that ice sheets are capable of transporting most debris only a short distance. The theory that the break-up of bedrock is mostly a preglacial process is developed. The advancing ice sheet collects the debris and then deposits it after a short travel. As the ice sheet first advances over the regolith, debris is frozen onto the base and is carried until basal melting due to geothermal and frictional heat causes lodgment till deposition. Most debris is deposited during the advance of the ice sheet and is carried only a short distance. A generally small amount of debris is carried at higher levels and is deposited during ice standstill and retreat as melt-out and ablation tills. The present theory makes many predictions, among them, that most till units are not traceable over long distances, that thick till sequences represent unstable glacier margins and not necessarily long periods of glacier occupation, and that lodgment tills are to be interpreted in terms of ice advances and ablation tills in terms of ice retreats. This paper is published in full in Journal of Geology, Vol. 86, No. 4, 1978, p. 516–24.

Download Full-text

Basal Sliding Relations Deduced from Ice-Sheet Data

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0022143000005864 ◽

1984 ◽

Vol 30 (105) ◽

pp. 131-139 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

L. W. Morland ◽

G. D. Smith ◽

G. S. Boulton

Keyword(s):

Boundary Condition ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Large Scale ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Lower Boundary ◽

Tangential Velocity ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Overburden Pressure ◽

Ice Flow ◽

Surface Mass

AbstractThe sliding law is defined as a basal boundary condition for the large-scale bulk ice flow, relating the tangential tractionτb, overburden pressurepb, and tangential velocityubon a smoothed-out mean bed contour. This effective bed is a lower boundary viewed on the scale of the bulk ice flow and is not the physical ice/rock or sediment interface. The sliding relation reflects on the same scale the complex motion taking place in the neighbourhood of the physical interface. The isothermal steady-state ice-sheet analysis of Morland and Johnson (1980, 1982) is applied to known surface profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and Devon Island ice cap, with their corresponding mass-balance distributions, to determineτb,pb, andubfor each case. These basal estimates are used in turn to construct, using least-squares correlation, polynomial representations for an overburden dependenceλ(pb) in the adopted form of sliding lawτb═λ(pb)ub1/mwithm ≥1.The two different data sets determine functionsλ(pb) of very different magnitudes, reflecting very different basal conditions. A universal sliding law must therefore contain more general dependence on basal conditions, but the two relations determined appear to describe the two extremes. Hence use of both relations in turn to determine profiles compatible with given mass-balance distributions can be expected to yield extremes of the possible profiles, and further to show the sensitivity of profile form to variation of the sliding relation. The theory is designed as a basis for reconstruction of former ice sheets and their dynamics which are related to the two fundamental determinants of surface mass balance and basal boundary condition.

Download Full-text

Trends and projections in ice sheet mass balance

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20660 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Andrew Shepherd ◽

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Dynamics ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Global Sea Level

In recent decades, the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets have been major contributors to global sea-level rise and are expected to be so in the future. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the degree and trajectory of today&#8217;s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite records of changes in polar ice sheet volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of their mass balance. Since the early 1990&#8217;s, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have caused global sea-levels to rise by 18.4 millimetres, on average, and there has been a sixfold increase in the volume of ice loss over time. Of this total, 41 % (7.6 millimetres) originates from Antarctica and 59 % (10.8 millimetres) is from Greenland. In this presentation, we compare our reconciled estimates of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass change to IPCC projection of sea level rise to assess the model skill in predicting changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance. &#160;Cumulative ice losses from both ice sheets have been close to the IPCC&#8217;s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 170 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.

Download Full-text

A data-driven approach for assessing ice-sheet mass balance in space and time

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2015aog70a021 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 56 (70) ◽

pp. 175-183 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Andrew Zammit-Mangion ◽

Jonathan L. Bamber ◽

Nana W. Schoen ◽

Jonathan C. Rougier

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Smoothing Methods ◽

Combination Methods ◽

Wide Range

AbstractCombinations of various numerical models and datasets with diverse observation characteristics have been used to assess the mass evolution of ice sheets. As a consequence, a wide range of estimates have been produced using markedly different methodologies, data, approximation methods and model assumptions. Current attempts to reconcile these estimates using simple combination methods are unsatisfactory, as common sources of errors across different methodologies may not be accurately quantified (e.g. systematic biases in models). Here we provide a general approach which deals with this issue by considering all data sources simultaneously, and, crucially, by reducing the dependence on numerical models. The methodology is based on exploiting the different space–time characteristics of the relevant ice-sheet processes, and using statistical smoothing methods to establish the causes of the observed change. In omitting direct dependence on numerical models, the methodology provides a novel means for assessing glacio-isostatic adjustment and climate models alike, using remote-sensing datasets. This is particularly advantageous in Antarctica, where in situ measurements are difficult to obtain. We illustrate the methodology by using it to infer Antarctica’s mass trend from 2003 to 2009 and produce surface mass-balance anomaly estimates to validate the RACMO2.1 regional climate model.

Download Full-text

Influence of albedo parameterization on surface mass balance in the perspective of Greenland ice sheet modelling in EC-Earth

10.5194/tc-2016-281 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Michiel Helsen ◽

Roderik Van de Wal ◽

Thomas Reerink ◽

Richard Bintanja ◽

Marianne Sloth Madsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass

Abstract. The albedo of the surface of ice sheets changes as a function of time, due to the effects of deposition of new snow, ageing of dry snow, melting and runoff. Currently, the calculation of the albedo of ice sheets is highly parameterized within the Earth System Model EC-Earth, by taking a constant value for areas with thick perennial snow cover. This is one of the reasons that the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is poorly resolved in the model. To improve this, eight snow albedo schemes are evaluated here. The resulting SMB is downscaled from the lower resolution global climate model topography to the higher resolution ice sheet topography of the GrIS, such that the influence of these different SMB climatologies on the long-term evolution of the GrIS is tested by ice sheet model simulations. This results in an optimised albedo parameterization that can be used in future EC-Earth simulations with an interactive ice sheet component.

Download Full-text

Reconciling the surface temperature–surface mass balance relationship in models and ice cores in Antarctica over the last two centuries

10.5194/tc-2020-36 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Marie G. P. Cavitte ◽

Quentin Dalaiden ◽

Hugues Goosse ◽

Jan T. M. Lenaerts ◽

Elizabeth R. Thomas

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Large Scale ◽

Ice Core ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Weak Correlation ◽

Surface Mass ◽

The Past ◽

Ice Core Records

Abstract. Ice cores are an important record of the past surface mass balance (SMB) of ice sheets, with SMB mitigating the ice sheets’ sea level impact over the recent decades. For the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), SMB is dominated by large-scale atmospheric circulation, which collects warm moist air from further north and releases it in the form of snow as widespread accumulation or focused atmospheric rivers on the continent. This implies that the snow deposited at the surface of the AIS should record strongly coupled SMB and surface air temperature (SAT) variations. Ice cores use δ18O as a proxy for SAT as they do not record SAT directly. Here, using isotope-enabled global climate models and the RACMO2.3 regional climate model, we calculate positive SMB-SAT and δ18O-SMB correlations over ∼90 % of the AIS. The high spatial resolution of the RACMO2.3 model allows us to highlight a number of areas where SMB and SAT are not correlated, and show that wind-driven processes acting locally, such as Foehn and katabatic effects, can overwhelm the large-scale atmospheric input in SMB and SAT responsible for the positive SMB-SAT correlations. We focus in particular on Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, where the ice promontories clearly show these wind-induced effects. However, using the PAGES2k ice core compilations of SMB and δ18O of Thomas et al. (2017) and Stenni et al. (2017), we obtain a weak correlation, on the order of 0.1, between SMB and δ18O over the past ~150 years. We obtain an equivalently weak correlation between ice core SMB and the SAT reconstruction of Nicolas and Bromwich (2014) over the past ~50 years, although the ice core sites are not spatially co-located with the areas displaying a low SMB-SAT correlation in the models. To resolve the discrepancy between the measured and modeled signals, we show that averaging the ice core records in close spatial proximity increases their SMB-SAT correlation. This increase shows that the weak measured correlation likely results from random noise present in the ice core records, but is not large enough to match the correlation calculated in the models. Our results indicate thus a positive correlation between SAT and SMB in models and ice core reconstructions but with a weaker value in observations that may be due to missing processes in models or some systematic biases in ice core data that are not removed by a simple average.

Download Full-text

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium ice sheet volume

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-39-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 39-47 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Troels Bøgeholm Mikkelsen ◽

Aslak Grinsted ◽

Peter Ditlevsen

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Temperature Fluctuations ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Ice Volume ◽

Recent Estimate ◽

Interannual Fluctuations

Abstract. Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr−1 (24–59 Gt yr−1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10–25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10–0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

Download Full-text