scholarly journals A note on American options with varying exercise price

1995 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-57
Author(s):  
J. N. Dewynne ◽  
P. Wilmott
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
A Priori ◽  
American Options ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Exercise Price ◽  
Black Scholes

AbstractWe examine the valuation of American options in a discrete time setting where the exercise price is known a priori but varies with time. (This is in contrast with the classical Black-Scholes [2] analysis, which lies in a continuous time framework and with constant exercise price.) In particular we consider a time series of exercise prices which are themselves a realisation of the share price random walk — that of the previous year, say.

Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall approaches for option premiums and the probability of default estimation based on ARMA models

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 126
Author(s):  
Nikolai Berzon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Option Pricing ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Arma Process ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Black Scholes

The need to address the issue of risk management has given rise to a number of models for estimation the probability of default, as well as a special tool that allows to sell credit risk – a credit default swap (CDS). From the moment it appeared in 1994 until the crisis of 2008, that the CDS market was actively growing, and then sharply contracted. Currently, there is practically no CDS market in emerging economies (including Russia). This article is to improve the existing CDS valuation models by using discrete-time models that allow for more accurate assessment and forecasting of the selected asset dynamics, as well as new option pricing models that take into account the degree of risk acceptance by the option seller. This article is devoted to parametric discrete-time option pricing models that provide more accurate results than the traditional Black-Scholes continuous-time model. Improvement in the quality of assessment is achieved due to three factors: a more detailed consideration of the properties of the time series of the underlying asset (in particular, autocorrelation and heavy tails), the choice of the optimal number of parameters and the use of Value-at-Risk approach. As a result of the study, expressions were obtained for the premiums of European put and call options for a given level of risk under the assumption that the return on the underlying asset follows a stationary ARMA process with normal or Student's errors, as well as an expression for the credit spread under similar assumptions. The simplicity of the ARMA process underlying the model is a compromise between the complexity of model calibration and the quality of describing the dynamics of assets in the stock market. This approach allows to take into account both discreteness in asset pricing and take into account the current structure and the presence of interconnections for the time series of the asset under consideration (as opposed to the Black–Scholes model), which potentially allows better portfolio management in the stock market.

Amplitudes of Composition Fluctuations in the Simplest Chemical Reaction Equilibrium

2004 ◽  
Vol 218 (9) ◽  
pp. 1033-1040 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Šolc ◽  
J. Hostomský
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Mean Amplitude ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Composition Fluctuations ◽  
Number Of Particles

AbstractWe present a numerical study of equilibrium composition fluctuations in a system where the reaction X1 ⇔ X2 having the equilibrium constant equal to 1 takes place. The total number of reacting particles is N. On a discrete time scale, the amplitude of a fluctuation having the lifetime 2r reaction events is defined as the difference between the number of particles X1 in the microstate most distant from the microstate N/2 visited at least once during the fluctuation lifetime, and the equilibrium number of particles X1, N/2. On the discrete time scale, the mean value of this amplitude, m̅(r̅), is calculated in the random walk approximation. On a continuous time scale, the average amplitude of fluctuations chosen randomly and regardless of their lifetime from an ensemble of fluctuations occurring within the time interval (0,z), z → ∞, tends with increasing N to ~1.243 N0.25. Introducing a fraction of fluctuation lifetime during which the composition of the system spends below the mean amplitude m̅(r̅), we obtain a value of the mean amplitude of equilibrium fluctuations on the continuous time scale equal to ~1.19√N. The results suggest that using the random walk value m̅(r̅) and taking into account a) the exponential density of fluctuations lifetimes and b) the fact that the time sequence of reaction events represents the Poisson process, we obtain values of fluctuations amplitudes which differ only slightly from those derived for the Ehrenfest model.

scholarly journals Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (25) ◽  
pp. 885-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Cauchemez ◽  
Neil M Ferguson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Generation Time ◽  
Data Augmentation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Observation Interval ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Similar Time

We present a new statistical approach to analyse epidemic time-series data. A major difficulty for inference is that (i) the latent transmission process is partially observed and (ii) observed quantities are further aggregated temporally. We develop a data augmentation strategy to tackle these problems and introduce a diffusion process that mimicks the susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) epidemic process, but that is more tractable analytically. While methods based on discrete-time models require epidemic and data collection processes to have similar time scales, our approach, based on a continuous-time model, is free of such constraint. Using simulated data, we found that all parameters of the SIR model, including the generation time, were estimated accurately if the observation interval was less than 2.5 times the generation time of the disease. Previous discrete-time TSIR models have been unable to estimate generation times, given that they assume the generation time is equal to the observation interval. However, we were unable to estimate the generation time of measles accurately from historical data. This indicates that simple models assuming homogenous mixing (even with age structure) of the type which are standard in mathematical epidemiology miss key features of epidemics in large populations.

Choice of operator length for maximum entropy spectral analysis

Geophysics ◽  
1978 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 1384-1391 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G. Berryman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis ◽  
Discrete Time Series

Empirical evidence based on maximum entropy spectra of real seismic data suggests that M = 2N/ln 2N is a reasonable a priori choice of the operator length M for discrete time series of length N. Various examples support this conclusion.

On a Conjecture of Bollobás and Brightwell Concerning Random Walks on Product Graphs

1998 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLLE HÄGGSTRÖM
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Complete Graph ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Product Graph ◽  
Product Graphs ◽  
Continuous Time Random Walks ◽  
Discrete Time Case

We consider continuous time random walks on a product graph G×H, where G is arbitrary and H consists of two vertices x and y linked by an edge. For any t>0 and any a, b∈V(G), we show that the random walk starting at (a, x) is more likely to have hit (b, x) than (b, y) by time t. This contrasts with the discrete time case and proves a conjecture of Bollobás and Brightwell. We also generalize the result to cases where H is either a complete graph on n vertices or a cycle on n vertices.

scholarly journals Limiting stochastic processes of shift-periodic dynamical systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 191423
Author(s):  
Julia Stadlmann ◽  
Radek Erban
Keyword(s):  
Brownian Motion ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Real Line ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Initial Distribution ◽  
Dynamical Behaviour ◽  
One Dimensional

A shift-periodic map is a one-dimensional map from the real line to itself which is periodic up to a linear translation and allowed to have singularities. It is shown that iterative sequences x n +1 = F ( x n ) generated by such maps display rich dynamical behaviour. The integer parts ⌊ x n ⌋ give a discrete-time random walk for a suitable initial distribution of x 0 and converge in certain limits to Brownian motion or more general Lévy processes. Furthermore, for certain shift-periodic maps with small holes on [0,1], convergence of trajectories to a continuous-time random walk is shown in a limit.

Simple random walk statistics. Part II: Continuous time results

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (02) ◽  
pp. 331-339 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Böhm ◽  
W. Panny
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Simple Random Walk ◽  
Laplace Transforms ◽  
Time Process ◽  
Basic Approach

In this paper various statistics for randomized random walks and their distributions are presented. The distributional results are derived by means of a limiting procedure applied to the pertaining discrete time process, which has been considered in part I of this work (Katzenbeisser and Panny 1996). This basic approach, originally due to Meisling (1958), seems to offer certain technical advantages, since it avoids the use of Laplace transforms and is even simpler than Feller's randomization technique.

NONPARAMETRIC NONSTATIONARITY TESTS

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico M. Bandi ◽  
Valentina Corradi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Nonlinear Process ◽  
Additive Functional ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Occupation Times ◽  
Discrete Time Case ◽  
Continuous Time Processes

We propose additive functional-based nonstationarity tests that exploit the different divergence rates of the occupation times of a (possibly nonlinear) process under the null of nonstationarity (stationarity) versus the alternative of stationarity (nonstationarity). We consider both discrete-time series and continuous-time processes. The discrete-time case covers Harris recurrent Markov chains and integrated processes. The continuous-time case focuses on Harris recurrent diffusion processes. Notwithstanding finite-sample adjustments discussed in the paper, the proposed tests are simple to implement and rely on tabulated critical values. Simulations show that their size and power properties are satisfactory. Our robustness to nonlinear dynamics provides a solution to the typical inconsistency problem between assumed linearity of a time series for the purpose of nonstationarity testing and subsequent nonlinear inference.

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