Cryptic and cumulative impacts on the wintering habitat of the endangered black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) risk its long-term viability

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
EVAN J. PICKETT ◽  
MELANIE CHAN ◽  
WENDA CHENG ◽  
JOHN ALLCOCK ◽  
SIMBA CHAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Impacts ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Waterbird Species

SUMMARYThe East Asian–Australasian flyway contains some of the most threatened habitats in the world, with at least 155 waterbird species reliant on the tidal habitats it comprises. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an iconic endangered species distributed across the coast of East Asia. Its population suffered a severe decline into the 1990s, but extensive monitoring and conservation interventions have aided a substantial recovery of the species. We used a population viability analysis based on data collected over the past two decades in conjunction with species distribution models to project spatially explicit models of population change for the next 35 years. Over nearly all scenarios of habitat loss and climate change, the global spoonbill population was projected to increase in the short-term due to low population numbers likely well below current population carrying capacities. However, climate change and habitat loss together threaten the recovery of the spoonbill population such that, by 2050, population declines are apparent as a consequence of these cumulative impacts. These threats are also cryptic and represent a challenge to the conservation of species recovering from anthropogenic impacts; observed population increases can hide large reductions in habitat suitability that threaten the long-term viability of species.

scholarly journals Moth species richness and diversity decline in a 30-year time series in Norway, irrespective of species’ latitudinal range extent and habitat

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan C. Burner ◽  
Vidar Selås ◽  
Sverre Kobro ◽  
Rannveig M. Jacobsen ◽  
Anne Sverdrup-Thygeson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Food Plants ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Local Climate

Abstract Introduction Insects are reported to be in decline around the globe, but long-term datasets are rare. The causes of these trends are elusive, with changes in land use and climate among the top candidates. Yet if species traits can predict rates of population change, this can help identify underlying mechanisms. If climate change is important, for example, high-latitude species may decline as temperate species expand. Land use changes, however, may impact species that rely on certain habitats. Aims and methods We present 30 years of moth captures (comprising 97,032 individuals of 808 species) from a site in southeast Norway to test for population trends that are correlated with species traits. We use time series analyses and joint species distribution models combined with local climate and habitat data. Results and discussion Species richness declined by 8.2% per decade and total abundance appeared to decline as well (−9.4%, p = 0.14) but inter-annual variability was high. One-fifth of species declined, although 6% increased. Winter and summer weather were correlated with annual rates of abundance change for many species. Opposite to general expectation, many species responded negatively to higher summer and winter temperatures. Surprisingly, species’ northern range limits and the habitat in which their food plants grew were not strong predictors of their time trends or their responses to climatic variation. Complex and indirect effects of both land use and climate change may play a role in these declines. Implications for insect conservation Our results provide additional evidence for long-term declines in insect abundance. The multifaceted causes of population changes may limit the ability of species traits to reveal which species are most at risk.

scholarly journals Forest degradation, not loss, drives widespread avian population declines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Betts ◽  
Zhiqiang Yang ◽  
Adam Hadley ◽  
Josee Rousseau ◽  
Joseph Northrup ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Breeding Habitat ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Bird Abundance

Abstract In many regions of the world, forest management has reduced old forest and simplified forest structure and composition via reliance on monoculture tree plantations. We hypothesized that such forest degradation has resulted in long-term habitat loss for forest-associated bird species of eastern Canada (130,017 km2) which, in turn, has affected bird population declines. Back-cast species distribution models revealed that despite little change in overall forest cover, breeding habitat loss occurred for 66% of the 54 most common species from 1985-2020. This habitat loss was strongly associated with population declines for 72% of species, as quantified in an independent, long-term dataset. Since 1985, net forest bird abundance has declined in this region by an estimated 33-104 million birds due to habitat loss alone. The effects of forest degradation may therefore be a primary cause of biodiversity decline in managed forest landscapes.  

scholarly journals Threats of future climate change and land use to vulnerable tree species native to Southern California

2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
ERIN C. RIORDAN ◽  
THOMAS W. GILLESPIE ◽  
LINCOLN PITCHER ◽  
STEPHANIE S. PINCETL ◽  
G. DARREL JENERETTE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

SUMMARYClimate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californica and Quercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially in J. californica which could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use. Quercus engelmannii, in contrast, could experience net habitat losses under combined impacts, even under best-case unlimited dispersal scenarios. Similarly, projected losses and gains in protected habitat are highly sensitive to dispersal scenario, with anywhere from > 60% loss in protected habitat (no dispersal) to > 170% gain in protected habitat (unlimited dispersal). The findings underscore the importance of dispersal in moderating future habitat loss for vulnerable species.

scholarly journals Socioeconomics drive population change in the world's largest carnivores

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Frederick Johnson ◽  
Nick J.B. Isaac ◽  
Agustin Paviolo ◽  
Manuela Gonzalez-Saurez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Population Changes ◽  
Wildlife Population ◽  
Development Goals

Land-use and climate change have been linked to wildlife population declines, but the role of socioeconomic factors in driving declines, and promoting population recoveries, remains relatively unexplored despite its likely importance. Here, we evaluate a comprehensive array of potential drivers of population changes observed in some of the world's most charismatic species - large mammalian carnivores. Our results reveal a strong role of human socioeconomic development, which we find has a greater impact on population change than habitat loss and climate change. Increases in socioeconomic development are linked to sharp population declines but, importantly, once development is high, carnivore populations have the potential to recover. These links between human development and wildlife population health highlight the challenges ahead to achieve the different UN Sustainable development goals.

scholarly journals Habitat suitability for primate conservation in north-east Brazil

Oryx ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
pp. 803-813
Author(s):  
Bárbara Moraes ◽  
Orly Razgour ◽  
João Pedro Souza-Alves ◽  
Jean P. Boubli ◽  
Bruna Bezerra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
North East

AbstractBrazil has a high diversity of primates, but increasing anthropogenic pressures and climate change could influence forest cover in the country and cause future changes in the distribution of primate populations. Here we aim to assess the long-term suitability of habitats for the conservation of three threatened Brazilian primates (Alouatta belzebul, Sapajus flavius and Sapajus libidinosus) through (1) estimating their current and future distributions using species distribution models, (2) evaluating how much of the areas projected to be suitable is represented within protected areas and priority areas for biodiversity conservation, and (3) assessing the extent of remaining forest cover in areas predicted to be suitable for these species. We found that 88% of the suitable areas are outside protected areas and only 24% are located in areas with forest cover. Although not within protected areas, 27% of the climatically suitable areas are considered priority areas for conservation. Future projections, considering a severe climate change scenario, indicate that A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidinosus may lose up to 94, 98 and 54% of their suitable range, respectively. The establishment of primate populations and their long-term survival in these areas are at risk. Mitigation actions such as the implementation of new protected areas, forest restoration and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be essential for the conservation of Brazilian primates.

scholarly journals Insects and recent climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (2) ◽  
pp. e2002543117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Halsch ◽  
Arthur M. Shapiro ◽  
James A. Fordyce ◽  
Chris C. Nice ◽  
James H. Thorne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Recent Climate Change ◽  
Recent Climate

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth’s changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.

scholarly journals Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: species profiling based on life-history and environmental characteristics

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Jarić ◽  
Robert J. Lennox ◽  
Gregor Kalinkat ◽  
Gorčin Cvijanović ◽  
Johannes Radinger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life History ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Local Extinctions ◽  
Management Priorities ◽  
Promising Source

AbstractClimate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic impacts, the impacts will alter species distributions and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. We collated life history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life-history and climatic niches, with climate-change susceptible species being distributed more southwardly within Europe, and being characterized by higher threat levels, lower commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body size and warmer thermal envelopes. We establish a list of species revealed to be of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool, to quickly assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities.

scholarly journals Insects and recent climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Halsch ◽  
Arthur M. Shapiro ◽  
James A. Fordyce ◽  
Chris C. Nice ◽  
James H. Thorne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Natural World ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Recent Climate Change ◽  
Recent Climate

AbstractInsects have diversified through 400 million years of Earth’s changeable climate, yet recent and ongoing shifts in patterns of temperature and precipitation pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change, while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared to changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions and raise questions about the utility of temperate mountains as refugia during the Anthropocene. We consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.Significance statementAnthropogenic climate change poses multiple threats to society and biodiversity, and challenges our understanding of the resilience of the natural world. We discuss recent ideas and evidence on this issue and conclude that the impacts of climate change on insects in particular have the potential to be more severe than might have been expected a decade ago. Finally, we suggest practical measures that include the protection of diverse portfolios of species, not just those inhabiting what are currently the most pristine areas.

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird

Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 359 (6371) ◽  
pp. 83-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachael A. Bay ◽  
Ryan J. Harrigan ◽  
Vinh Le Underwood ◽  
H. Lisle Gibbs ◽  
Thomas B. Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Genomics ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Migratory Bird ◽  
Genomic Variation ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Yellow Warbler

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species’ responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts.

scholarly journals A 1-km global dataset of historical (1979–2017) and future (2020–2100) Köppen-Geiger climate classification and bioclimatic variables

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diyang Cui ◽  
Shunlin Liang ◽  
Dongdong Wang ◽  
Zheng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Abstract. The Köppen-Geiger classification scheme provides an effective and ecologically meaningful way to characterize climatic conditions and has been widely applied in climate change studies. Significant changes in Köppen climates have been observed and projected in the recent two centuries. Current accuracy, temporal coverage, spatial and temporal resolution of historical and future climate classification maps cannot sufficiently fulfil the current needs of climate change research. Comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts requires a more accurate depiction of fine-grained climatic conditions and continuous long-term time coverage. Here, we present a series of improved 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for ten historical periods in 1979–2017 and four future periods in 2020–2099 under RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The historical maps are derived from multiple downscaled observational datasets and the future maps are derived from an ensemble of bias-corrected downscaled CMIP5 projections. In addition to climate classification maps, we calculate 12 bioclimatic variables at 1-km resolution, providing detailed descriptions of annual averages, seasonality, and stressful conditions of climates. The new maps offer higher classification accuracy and demonstrate the ability to capture recent and future projected changes in spatial distributions of climate zones. On regional and continental scales, the new maps show accurate depictions of topographic features and correspond closely with vegetation distributions. We also provide a heuristic application example to detect long-term global-scale area changes of climate zones. This high-resolution dataset of Köppen-Geiger climate classification and bioclimatic variables can be used in conjunction with species distribution models to promote biodiversity conservation and to analyze and identify recent and future interannual or interdecadal changes in climate zones on a global or regional scale. The dataset referred to as KGClim, is publicly available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4546140 for historical climate and http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4542076 for future climate.

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