scholarly journals Habitat suitability for primate conservation in north-east Brazil

Oryx ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
pp. 803-813
Author(s):  
Bárbara Moraes ◽  
Orly Razgour ◽  
João Pedro Souza-Alves ◽  
Jean P. Boubli ◽  
Bruna Bezerra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
North East

AbstractBrazil has a high diversity of primates, but increasing anthropogenic pressures and climate change could influence forest cover in the country and cause future changes in the distribution of primate populations. Here we aim to assess the long-term suitability of habitats for the conservation of three threatened Brazilian primates (Alouatta belzebul, Sapajus flavius and Sapajus libidinosus) through (1) estimating their current and future distributions using species distribution models, (2) evaluating how much of the areas projected to be suitable is represented within protected areas and priority areas for biodiversity conservation, and (3) assessing the extent of remaining forest cover in areas predicted to be suitable for these species. We found that 88% of the suitable areas are outside protected areas and only 24% are located in areas with forest cover. Although not within protected areas, 27% of the climatically suitable areas are considered priority areas for conservation. Future projections, considering a severe climate change scenario, indicate that A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidinosus may lose up to 94, 98 and 54% of their suitable range, respectively. The establishment of primate populations and their long-term survival in these areas are at risk. Mitigation actions such as the implementation of new protected areas, forest restoration and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be essential for the conservation of Brazilian primates.

scholarly journals Predicting the distribution of vulnerable fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus in Nepal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rama Mishra ◽  
Hans de Iongh ◽  
Herwig Leirs ◽  
Babu Ram Lamichhane ◽  
Naresh Subedi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Genetic Connectivity ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Comprehensive Information ◽  
Potential Habitats ◽  
Effective Conservation

The fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus is a wetland specialist endemic to South and Southeast Asia. Nepal represents the northern limit of its biogeographic range, but comprehensive information on fishing cat distribution in Nepal is lacking. We compiled fishing cat occurrence records (n=154) from Nepal, available in published literature and unpublished data (2009 – 2020), to assess their distribution. Bioclimatic and environmental variables associated with their occurrence were used to predict the potential fishing cat range using MaxEnt modeling. Fishing cat distribution was influenced by elevation, precipitation of the warmest quarter (18_bio), precipitation of the driest month (14_bio) and land cover. Wetlands and forest cover were the important predictors of fishing cat distribution. The model predicted an area of 4.4% (6,679 km2) of Nepal as potential habitat for the fishing cat. About two third of the predicted potentially suitable habitat lies outside protected areas, however a large part of the highly suitable habitat (67%) falls within protected areas. The predicted habitat map serves as a reference for future investigation into fishing cat distribution as well as formulating and implementing effective conservation programs for fishing cats in Nepal. Fishing cat conservation initiatives should include habitats both inside and outside the protected areas to ensure long-term survival. We recommend conservation of wetland sites, surveys of fishing cats in the identified potential habitats, and study of their genetic connectivity and population status.

scholarly journals Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki S. Lehtonen ◽  
Jyrki Aakkula ◽  
Stefan Fronzek ◽  
Janne Helin ◽  
Mikael Hildén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Level ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Farm Subsidies

AbstractShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Christophe F. Randin ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Present Species ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

scholarly journals MODELING PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT FOREST RESILIENCE IN INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3 ◽  
pp. 263-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Das ◽  
M. D. Behera ◽  
P. S. Roy
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
High Tendency ◽  
North East India ◽  
North East ◽  
Forest Resilience ◽  
The Impact

The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution) Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i) forest, (ii) scrubland, (iii) grassland and (iv) treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9&amp;thinsp;%, 5.05&amp;thinsp;%, 1.89&amp;thinsp;% and 7.79&amp;thinsp;% respectively. Rest of the 65.37&amp;thinsp;% land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5&amp;thinsp;km&amp;thinsp;&amp;times;&amp;thinsp;5&amp;thinsp;km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr) &amp;lt;&amp;thinsp;0.3 in only 0.3&amp;thinsp;% (200&amp;thinsp;km<sup>2</sup>) of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3&amp;thinsp;% &amp;lt;&amp;thinsp;0.5&amp;thinsp;Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92&amp;thinsp;% Pr&amp;thinsp;&amp;lt;&amp;thinsp;0.5) from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.

scholarly journals Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bond ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Paul Reich ◽  
Janet Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

scholarly journals Dramatic decline of the Vulnerable Reeves's pheasant Syrmaticus reevesii, endemic to central China

Oryx ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 529-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunfa Zhou ◽  
Jiliang Xu ◽  
Zhengwang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Protected Areas ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Iucn Red List ◽  
Central China ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Syrmaticus Reevesii

AbstractThe current status and distribution of the Vulnerable Reeves's pheasant Syrmaticus reevesii, endemic to central China, is poorly known. To obtain updated information on its status we selected 89 candidate sites in six provinces and one municipality in central China and conducted interviews and field surveys from April 2011 to April 2012. Interviews demonstrated the pheasant has disappeared from 46% of the surveyed sites. Our results also revealed a population decline at 46 sites, including protected areas, although population densities in protected areas were higher than those in non-protected areas. Eighty-three, 26 and 20% of the surveyed sites had evidence of poaching, habitat loss and use of poison, respectively, which were the three major threats to this species. To ensure the long-term survival of Reeves's pheasant in China, protection and management need to be enforced in both protected and non-protected areas. We recommend that this species should be upgraded to a national first-level protected species in China and recategorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List.

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (3) ◽  
pp. 741-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miranda C. Jones ◽  
William W. L. Cheung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Distribution Shifts ◽  
Species Specific

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools to explore the effects of future global changes in biodiversity. Previous studies show that variability is introduced into projected distributions through alternative datasets and modelling procedures. However, a multi-model approach to assess biogeographic shifts at the global scale is still rarely applied, particularly in the marine environment. Here, we apply three commonly used SDMs (AquaMaps, Maxent, and the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model) to assess the global patterns of change in species richness, invasion, and extinction intensity in the world oceans. We make species-specific projections of distribution shift using each SDM, subsequently aggregating them to calculate indices of change across a set of 802 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates. Results indicate an average poleward latitudinal shift across species and SDMs at a rate of 15.5 and 25.6 km decade−1 for a low and high emissions climate change scenario, respectively. Predicted distribution shifts resulted in hotspots of local invasion intensity in high latitude regions, while local extinctions were concentrated near the equator. Specifically, between 10°N and 10°S, we predicted that, on average, 6.5 species would become locally extinct per 0.5° latitude under the climate change emissions scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Average invasions were predicted to be 2.0 species per 0.5° latitude in the Arctic Ocean and 1.5 species per 0.5° latitude in the Southern Ocean. These averaged global hotspots of invasion and local extinction intensity are robust to the different SDM used and coincide with high levels of agreement.

Cryptic and cumulative impacts on the wintering habitat of the endangered black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) risk its long-term viability

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
EVAN J. PICKETT ◽  
MELANIE CHAN ◽  
WENDA CHENG ◽  
JOHN ALLCOCK ◽  
SIMBA CHAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Impacts ◽  
Population Declines ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Waterbird Species

SUMMARYThe East Asian–Australasian flyway contains some of the most threatened habitats in the world, with at least 155 waterbird species reliant on the tidal habitats it comprises. The black-faced spoonbill (Platalea minor) is an iconic endangered species distributed across the coast of East Asia. Its population suffered a severe decline into the 1990s, but extensive monitoring and conservation interventions have aided a substantial recovery of the species. We used a population viability analysis based on data collected over the past two decades in conjunction with species distribution models to project spatially explicit models of population change for the next 35 years. Over nearly all scenarios of habitat loss and climate change, the global spoonbill population was projected to increase in the short-term due to low population numbers likely well below current population carrying capacities. However, climate change and habitat loss together threaten the recovery of the spoonbill population such that, by 2050, population declines are apparent as a consequence of these cumulative impacts. These threats are also cryptic and represent a challenge to the conservation of species recovering from anthropogenic impacts; observed population increases can hide large reductions in habitat suitability that threaten the long-term viability of species.

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