An analysis of a presumed major outbreak of pseudorabies virus in a vaccinated sow herd

We describe a major outbreak of pseudorabies virus (PRV) in a sow herd in which the sows were vaccinated simultaneously three times a year with a vaccine containing Bartha strain. Also in the associated rearing herd in which the gilts were vaccinated twice an outbreak of PRV occurred. The outbreak was analysed with mathematical models, statistical methods and Monte-Carlo simulation. Under the assumption that the outbreak started with one introduction of virus the reproduction ratio Rind – as a measure of transmission of PRV between individuals – in the sow herd was estimated with a Generalized Linear Model to be 1·6. Also under the assumption of one introduction of virus Rind in the rearing herd was estimated with a martingale estimator to be 1·7. Both estimates were significantly larger than 1. Mathematical analysis showed that heterogeneity in the sow herd, because of the presence of not-optimally immunized replacement sows could not be the only cause of the observed outbreak in the sow herd. With Monte-Carlo simulations, the duration of an outbreak after a single introduction of virus and Rind = 1·6 did not mimic the data and thus the hypothesis of a single introduction with Rind = 1·6 could also be rejected and Rind is thus, not necessarily above 1. Moreover, with statistical analysis, endemicity in the combination of herds as a cause for the observed outbreak could be rejected. Endemicity in the rearing herd alone could not be excluded. Therefore, multiple introductions from outside and most probably from the rearing herd were possibly the cause of the observed outbreak(s). The implications for eradication of pseudorabies virus were discussed.