The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 620-624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Christopher Wlezien
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Subjective Perceptions ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The University ◽  
Objective Indicators

The importance of the economy in US presidential elections is well established. Voters reward or punish incumbent party candidates based on the state of the economy. The electorate focuses particularly on economic change, not the level of the economy per se, and pays more attention to late-arriving change than earlier change. On these points there is a good amount of scholarly agreement (see e.g., Erikson and Wlezien 1996; Hibbs 1987). There is less agreement, however, on what specific indicators matter to voters. Some scholars rely on income growth, others on GDP growth, and yet others on subjective perceptions (see Abramowitz 2008; Campbell 2008; Holbrook 1996b; also see Campbell and Garand 2000). In our work, we have used the index of leading economic indicators, a composite of ten variables, including the University of Michigan's index of consumer expectations, stock prices, and eight other objective indicators.

THE CONSTRUCTION AND VALIDATION OF A CONSUMER ORIENTATION QUESTIONNAIRE (SCOI) DESIGNED TO MEASURE FROMM'S (1955) ‘MARKETING CHARACTER’ IN AUSTRALIA

2000 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaun Saunders ◽  
Don Munro
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Psychological Health ◽  
Discriminant Validity ◽  
Television Viewing ◽  
Anger Expression ◽  
Voluntary Simplicity ◽  
Commercial Television ◽  
Consumer Orientation ◽  
Per Se ◽  
The University

An instrument (SCOI) was designed to measure Fromm's (1955) marketing character, which is based on the notion that the self may be experienced as a commodity whose value and meaning are externally determined. In study 1 (N=80 & 302), the hypothesis that the SCOI would be positively correlated with Conformity, Authoritarianism and Anger Expression was supported, providing support for Fromm's (1955) theory that these latter three traits would be evident in those individuals defined by the marketing character. The hypotheses that the SCOI and Materialism (Richins & Dawson, 1992), would be positively correlated with both Commercial Television Viewing and Anxiety were also supported. In study 2 (N=87), the hypotheses that the SCOI and Materialism would be positively correlated with Depression and negatively correlated with Voluntary Simplicity were supported. The hypothesis that the SCOI would be negatively correlated with Life Satisfaction was not supported, although Materialism was significantly and negatively correlated with Life Satisfaction. In study 3 (N=80), the hypotheses that the SCOI and Materialism would be negatively correlated with Empathy and Neuroticism were not supported, the latter result suggesting that neuroticism may not be an adequate indicator of psychological health per se. In study 4 (N=101), the hypotheses that the SCOI and Materialism would be negatively correlated with Biophilia and Environmentalism were also supported. Further, the SCOI was able to discriminate both between Ss from Newcastle, NSW (one of two preferred test markets in Australia) and Ss from a permaculture community in south-east Queensland, Australia, and between Ss enrolled in management and Ss enrolled in arts/science at the University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia. Hence, the SCOI generally performed as expected in tests of convergent, divergent and discriminant validity.

Libraries in Africa: Pioneers, Policies, Problems. By ANTHONY OLDEN. Lanham, MD., and London: Scarecrow Press, 1996 (UK agent: Shelwing Ltd., Folkestone). Pp. xx + 170. £35.65 (ISBN 0-8108-3093-0).

1997 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-177
Author(s):  
A. D. ROBERTS
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
University Of Illinois ◽  
Carnegie Corporation ◽  
Library Research ◽  
History Of ◽  
English Speaking ◽  
Per Se ◽  
English Speaking World ◽  
The University

This expensive little book, originally a thesis for the University of Illinois, is an artless but sometimes perceptive account of certain library endeavours in British East and West Africa, based on archival and library research in Britain and the United States. It is not a history of libraries per se so much as a study of instances of external aid to the development of libraries beyond the sphere of teaching institutions. In the 1930s, one such source – as in so much of the English-speaking world – was the Carnegie Corporation. Grants to Kenya underpinned a system of circulating libraries, the depot for which was housed in the McMillan Memorial Library, Nairobi; membership was confined to whites until 1958. In Lagos, Alan Burns, as chief secretary, secured a grant to start an unsegregated but fee-charging library: in 1934 just 43 of its 481 members were African. The grant ended in 1935, but the library was still going forty years later.

scholarly journals Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy

1989 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina ◽  
Howard Rosenthal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Voting Models ◽  
Better Than

In the postwar United States the president's party has always done worse in the midterm congressional elections than in the previous congressional election. Republican administrations exhibit below-average, and Democratic administrations above-average, economic growth in the first half of each term, whereas in the latter halves the two see equal growth. Our rational expectations model is consistent with these two regularities. In presidential elections, voters choose between two polarized candidates. They then use midterm elections to counterbalance the president's policies by strengthening the opposition in Congress. Since presidents of different parties are associated with different policies, our model predicts a (spurious) correlation between the state of the economy and elections. Our predictions contrast with those of retrospective voting models, in which voters reward the incumbent if the economy is doing well before the election. Our model performs empirically at least as well as, and often better than, alternative models.

scholarly journals Movements of Minorities: AusLankan Struggles for Transnational Justice

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumugan Sivanesan
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
International Community ◽  
Transnational Justice ◽  
The University

This paper reflects on arguments and positions put forth by Tamils in Sri Lanka, those in the diaspora and commentators in the ‘international community’ regarding the 2015 presidential elections in Sri Lanka. In particular it concerns the prospect of justice for those that suffered in the final stages of Sri Lanka’s civil war which concluded in May 2009. It is a self-reflexive account of my activities as a writer in residence at the University of Peradeniya in the lead-up to the election and the implications of those events upon my return to Sydney.

The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968–96

1999 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc J. Hetherington
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Incumbent Party

Scholars have consistently demonstrated that no link exists between declining political trust and declining turnout, but they have paid less attention to the effect of trust on vote choice. In an era characterized by declining trust, the incumbent party has lost, and third parties have strongly contested, four of the last eight presidential elections. Such outcomes are historically anomalous. This study demonstrates that declining political trust affects vote choice, but the electoral beneficiary differs according to electoral context. In two-candidate races, politically distrustful voters support candidates from the nonincumbent major party. In races with three viable candidates, third-party alternatives benefit from declining political trust at the expense of both major parties.

Hybrid computation in the university

SIMULATION ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jon C. Strauss ◽  
David B. Greenberg
Keyword(s):  
Partial Differential Equations ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Computer Programming ◽  
Partial Differential ◽  
University Environment ◽  
Hybrid Computation ◽  
Hybrid Computer ◽  
Per Se ◽  
The University ◽  
Univer Sity

One of the primary goals of the Carnegie-Mellon University Hybrid Computation Laboratory has been to study hybrid computation per se, from both an application and automation viewpoint. To date, the work has concentrated on automation of hybrid computer programming and on methods for solving partial differential equations. During the course of the design, installation, and operation of its hybrid computation laboratory, CMU has obtained a wealth of experience (both objective and subjective) with the use of hybrid computation in the university environment. In light of growing univer sity interest in hybrid computation, this article describes the experience of CMU and presents certain conclusions concerning the appropri ateness of university use of hybrid computation.

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