scholarly journals THE EXACT THEORETICAL RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS MONETARY AGGREGATE

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Barnett ◽  
Melvin J. Hinich ◽  
Piyu Yue
Keyword(s):  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
Statistical Index ◽  
Tracking Errors ◽  
Index Numbers ◽  
Nonlinear Structure

In aggregation theory, index numbers are judged relative to their ability to track the exact aggregator functions nested within the economy's structure. We compare two statistical index numbers—the Divisia monetary aggregate and the simple-sum monetary aggregate—with the exact rational expectations monetary aggregate, using actual data. Because we are not using simulated data, we estimate the parameters of the Euler equations, and thereby of the nested monetary aggregator function, using the generalized method of moments. We explore the tracking errors of the two index numbers relative to the estimated exact aggregate. We investigate the circumstances under which risk aversion increases tracking error. We also use polyspectral methods to test for the existence of remaining nonlinear structure in the residual tracking errors.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF INTEREST RATES AND PROVINCIAL MONETARY AGGREGATE IN MAINTAINING INFLATION IN INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-286
Author(s):  
Chandra Utama ◽  
Miryam B.L. Wijaya ◽  
Charvin Lim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Inflation is a regional phenomenon hence the use of provincial data might be more appropriateon explaining the relationship between monetary policy and inflation. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in provincial money supply, the policy rate, and the interbank rate on regional inflation, within the framework of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC). This paper employs Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on panel data of 32 provinces from 2005-III to 2014-IV. The estimation result shows that provincial monetary aggregate influence inflation significantly only in Sumatera. Furthermore, the policy fate affects the inflation in Sumatera and Kalimantan-Sulawesi. Using the interbank money rate, the result shows this rate also affect the inflation in most of the region except Kalimantan-Sulawesi. These findings show the price-based policy is more significant on affecting the provincial inflation compared to the provincial money supply.

Tests for nonlinear restrictions under misspecified alternatives with an application to testing rational expectation hypotheses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Bera ◽  
Gabriel Montes-Rojas ◽  
Walter Sosa-Escudero ◽  
Javier Alejo
Keyword(s):  
Lagrange Multiplier ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The Other ◽  
Gmm Estimator ◽  
Asymptotic Size ◽  
Lagrange Multiplier Tests

Summary This paper develops generalized method of moments-based (GMM-based) Lagrange multiplier tests for nonlinear hypotheses that are robust to locally misspecified possibly nonlinear alternatives. The procedure is based on an initial consistent GMM estimator of the parameters under a given set of nonlinear restrictions. The new test for one particular set of nonlinear hypotheses is consistent and has correct asymptotic size independently of whether the other, also nonlinear hypotheses, are correct or locally misspecified. To illustrate the usefulness of our proposed tests we consider testing rational expectations hypotheses using U.S. data.

Using information from singletons in fixed-effects estimation: xtfesing

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 965-975
Author(s):  
Laura Magazzini ◽  
Randolph Luca Bruno ◽  
Marco Stampini
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Method Of Moments Estimator ◽  
Fixed Effects Estimation

In this article, we describe the xtfesing command. The command implements a generalized method of moments estimator that allows exploiting singleton information in fixed-effects panel-data regression as in Bruno, Magazzini, and Stampini (2020, Economics Letters 186: Article 108519).

Does Bank Profitability Stimulate Economic Growth in the Arab Region?

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar Ghazy Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Development ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Arab Region ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study empirically investigates the impact of bank profitability, as a complementary measure of financial development, on growth in the Arab countries between 1985 and 2016. Using a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to test the impact of the bank profitability on growth, this study utilises two variables in the econometric model which are return on assets and return on equity. This study reveals that both variables of bank profitability are positive and significant. This confirms that the bank profitability, beside other financial development variables, has positive impact on the growth. This study points out some important implications based on this result.

scholarly journals Window dressing in the Active Share scores in publicly reported portfolios

2021 ◽  
pp. 234094442110246
Author(s):  
Laura Andreu ◽  
Carlos Forner ◽  
José Luis Sarto
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Tracking Errors ◽  
Window Dressing ◽  
Future Performance ◽  
Money Flows

Using a unique database that includes publicly disclosed fund holdings at the end of the quarter as well as the holdings in all non-publicly disclosed months, we found that some funds could alter their portfolios in publicly disclosed months to artificially increase their Active Share scores and consequently appear more active and take advantage of the positive relationship between Active Share and money flows. We show how, consistent with non-informed trades, these funds erode their future performance. However, these funds reach their objective of increasing future money flows. Moreover, we find that window-dresser funds can be identified by controlling the level of tracking error. The funds with high Active Share scores and low tracking errors have the highest levels of Active Share window dressing and the worst future returns. However, compared with less active funds, they are able to capture higher money flows. JEL CLASSIFICATION G23; G11

Assessing the bank profitability in the MENA region

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rim Ben Selma Mokni ◽  
Houssem Rachdi
Keyword(s):  
Method Of Moments ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
Econometric Technique

Purpose – Which of the banking stream is relatively more profitable in Middle Eastern and North Africa (MENA) region? Design/methodology/approach – The empirical study covers a sample of 15 conventional and 15 Islamic banks for the period 2002-2009.The authors estimate models using the generalized method of moments in system, of Blundell and Bond (1998). They exploit an up-to-date econometric technique which takes into consideration the issue of endogeneity of regressors to evaluate the comparative profitability of Islamic and conventional banks in the MENA region. Findings – Empirical analysis results show that the determinants’ significance varies between Islamic and conventional banks. Profitability seems to be quite persistent in the MENA region reflecting a higher degree of government intervention and may signal barriers to competition. Originality/value – The main interest is to develop a comprehensive model that integrates macroeconomic, industry-specific and bank-specific determinants. The paper makes comparison of the performance between two different banking systems in the MENA region. The authors consider a variable crisis to gain additional insights into the impacts of the financial crisis on MENA banking sector.

The impact of urbanization on energy consumption and efficiency

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 673-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengfei Sheng ◽  
Yaping He ◽  
Xiaohui Guo
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Method Of Moments Estimation ◽  
Process Of Urbanization ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Impact Of Urbanization ◽  
The Impact

There is no consensus about the impact of urbanization on energy efficiency. We seek to fill this gap in literature using data from 78 countries for the period of 1995 through 2012. Extending the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model, we identify the impact of urbanization on energy consumption and efficiency. Results of generalized method of moments estimation indicate that the process of urbanization leads to substantial increases in both the actual and the optimal energy consumption, but a decrease in efficiency of energy use. In addition, we find that the extent to which energy inefficiency correlates with urbanization is greater in countries with higher gross domestic product per capita.

On the ability of New Zealand actively managed funds to generate outperformance in their domestic equity allocations

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bart Frijns ◽  
Ivan Indriawan
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Tracking Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Holdings ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Stock Picking ◽  
Fund Size ◽  
Managed Funds

Purpose This paper aims to assess the ability of New Zealand (NZ) actively managed funds to generate risk-adjusted outperformance using portfolio holdings data. Focusing on domestic equity allocations addresses the benchmark selection issue, particularly for funds with national and international exposures. Design/methodology/approach The authors assess performance using several asset pricing models including the CAPM, three-factor and four-factor models. The authors also assess performance across funds with different characteristics such as fund size, size of local holdings, type of fund provider, past returns and fees. The authors further examine whether funds engage in any stock-picking or market timing by considering the active share and tracking error. Findings The returns on NZ equity holdings of NZ actively managed funds from 2010 to 2017 provide little evidence of risk-adjusted outperformance and stock-picking skill. These exposures yield pre-cost returns that have a nearly perfect correlation with the market index and an insignificant alpha. Funds show little tendency to bet on any of the main characteristics known to predict stock returns, such as size, book-to-market and momentum. In addition, the authors show that the average active shares and tracking errors are low, suggesting that the majority of funds hold NZ equity portfolios that closely mimic the market index. Originality/value Existing studies rely on returns data which aggregate performance across all asset classes with varying exposures. This may lead to benchmark selection issues (particularly for funds with international exposures) which may obscure the fund manager’s true stock-picking skills. Assessment using holdings data would enable suitable performance measurement by researchers and industry analysts.

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