WHY DO EMERGING STOCK MARKETS EXPERIENCE MORE PERSISTENT PRICE DEVIATIONS FROM A RANDOM WALK OVER TIME? A COUNTRY-LEVEL ANALYSIS

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (S1) ◽  
pp. 3-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kian-Ping Lim ◽  
Robert D. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
High Income Group ◽  
Country Level

This paper employs the rolling bicorrelation test to measure the degree of nonlinear departures from a random walk for aggregate stock price indices of fifty countries over the sample period 1995–2005. We find that stock markets in economies with low per capita GDP in general experience more frequent price deviations than those in the high-income group. This clustering effect is not due to market liquidity or other structural characteristics, but instead can be explained by cross-country variation in the degree of private property rights protection. Our conjecture is that weak protection deters the participation of informed arbitrageurs, leaving those markets dominated by sentiment-prone noise traders whose correlated trading causes stock prices in emerging markets to deviate from the random walk benchmarks for persistent periods of time.

scholarly journals ELEMENTS INDICATING STOCK PRICE MOVEMENTS: THE CASE OF THE COMPANIES LISTED ON THE V4 STOCK EXCHANGES

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 503-517
Author(s):  
Florin Aliu ◽  
Orkhan Nadirov ◽  
Artor Nuhiu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Stock Price Movements

Stock markets stand as a financial mechanism that provides liquidity for firms and offers diversification benefits for investors. Stock markets in the Eastern European countries are weakform efficient which exposes them to speculative prices. This study investigates the influence of the macroeconomic and firm-specific factors on stock prices of the listed companies within the Visegrad Stock Markets. The study employs regression analyses based on a Pooled OLS and Fixed Effect models with year dummies and standard errors clustered at the country level, which are robust to autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Data collection consists of 55 listed companies based on the weekly stock prices, from January 2013 till December 2018. The results indicate that total equity is the only significant element that influences the individual stock prices of the companies in the four established models. Additionally, increase in supply of shares declines the current stock prices and the other way around. However, the exchange rate and inflation level indicate a negative influence on the stock prices with weaker significance. The findings show that stock markets of the V4 countries are overall inefficient since important indicators, such as economic activity, debt level, cash flow, firm size, oil, and gold prices have limited influence on the stock price movements.

Googling Investor Sentiment around the World

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 549-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenyu Gao ◽  
Haohan Ren ◽  
Bohui Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Search Behavior ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Google Search

We study how investor sentiment affects stock prices around the world. Relying on households’ Google search behavior, we construct a weekly measure of sentiment for 38 countries during 2004–2014. We validate the sentiment index in tests using sports outcomes and show that the sentiment measure is a contrarian predictor of country-level market returns. Furthermore, we document an important role of global sentiment in stock markets.

Short Selling and Price Pressures in the Korean Stock Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-287
Author(s):  
Yeongseop Rhee ◽  
Sang Buhm Hahn
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Order Imbalance ◽  
Price Decline ◽  
Korean Stock Market

This paper examines short-selling activity focusing on its behavior during non-normal times of occasional excesses in the Korean stock market. Using the methodology explained by Brunnermeier and Pederson (2005) and Shkilko et al. (2009; 2012), we first examine whether short-selling is predatory on those event days of large price reversals. Overall there is little predatory abnormal short-selling in the pre-rebound phase and we can observe active contrarian short-selling in the post-rebound phase. When we compared aggressiveness between short-selling and non-short-selling using order imbalance variables, we found that non-short selling is much more aggressive than short selling in the Korean stock market. From the observation of market liquidity measured by quoted spreads, we could find that market liquidity is somewhat limited during price decline stages while it slightly improves during price reversal phases. Also, using dynamic panel model, we test the influences of those variables on stock price changes and disaggregate the compound effect of short-selling reflected in trading volume itself into differentiated ones not only through pure trading channel but also through other complicated channels such as market sentiment change. Main findings from the regression results are as follows : In the Korean stock market, short sellers seem to behave as a contrarian trader rather than a momentum trader; seller-initiated aggressive trading, whether it is by short-selling or non-short-selling, leads to negative order imbalance and price decline; market liquidity is limited by short-selling and further pressure on price decline is added in the pre-rebound stage; and stock prices are affected not only through pure selling (buying) channel but also through other channels in the Korean stock market.

Semi-strong Form Market Efficiency in Stock Markets with Low Levels of Trading Activity: Evidence from Stock Price Reaction to Major National and International Events

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1447-1464
Author(s):  
C. Justin Robinson ◽  
Prosper Bangwayo-Skeete
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Strong Form ◽  
Trading Activity ◽  
Price Reaction ◽  
Stock Price Reaction ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
International Events

This study uses the event study methodology to explore semi-strong form market efficiency in the context of low levels of trading activity. Covering six frontier stock markets, it investigates stock price reaction to major national news events that include natural disasters, parliamentary elections and credit rating reviews and the international events such as international terrorist incidents, major events surrounding the 2007/2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis and the United Kingdom’s referendum on membership in the European Union (Brexit). The results of the event studies, which feature a correction for low levels of trading activity, show that in sharp contrast with more actively traded markets, stock prices on markets with relatively low levels of trading activity did not react to the vast majority of major news events, and only tended to react to rare events with major consequences. Usually, where stock prices reacted to a news event, the reaction was significantly delayed, which is inconsistent with semi-strong form market efficiency. The implication is that low levels of trading activity may be associated with semi-strong form inefficiency, and stock prices in such markets may not fully reflect all relevant available information, and may be of limited value to a variety of decision-makers.

scholarly journals The Measurement of Health Care System Efficiency: Cross-country Comparison by Geographical Region

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-44
Author(s):  
Younhee Kim ◽  
Minah Kang
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Care Delivery ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
High Income Group ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Care Systems ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Given

Performance of health care delivery at the cross-country level has not often been directly evaluated by given inputs and outputs. This study estimates the efficiency of the health care systems of 170 countries by extending recent research using Simar and Wilson’s bootstrap data envelopment analysis with a sensitivity test. The 170 countries are divided into four groups to compute efficiency estimators necessary to attaining a homogeneity requirement. The major finding is that most countries were inefficient to maximize the use of their inputs at the given output level. Countries in the high-income group have a relatively high average efficiency, but only 16.7% of the countries performed efficiently in the management of their health care systems. Notably, Asian countries performed more efficiently among other regions in each group. This study suggests that inefficient countries should pay attention to benchmark health care best practices within their regional peer groups.

scholarly journals Stock Price Behavior of Nepalese Commercial Banks: Random Walk Hypothesis

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 42-52
Author(s):  
Nirajan Bam ◽  
Rajesh Kumar Thagurathi ◽  
Bipin Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Random Walk Hypothesis ◽  
The Past ◽  
Random Behavior ◽  
Run Test

Using the data set on daily stock prices during the fiscal year 2015/16 (Sept 23, 2015 through Dec 22, 2015), this paper attempts to analyze the random behavior of stock price of Nepalese Commercial Banks by using run test, serial correlation and run tests and martingale random walk hypothesis under heteroscedasticity assumption of standard error. The results conclude that the proposition of Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) in Nepalese stock markets does not hold true. This conclusion corroborates with the conclusions of the past studies carried out in Nepalese context.

The stock market’s reaction to accounting information: the cases of Chile and Peru

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 254-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Melgarejo ◽  
Eduardo Montiel ◽  
Luis Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the stock price and volume reactions around firms’ earnings announcement dates in two Latin American stock markets: Chile and Peru. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses multivariate regression analysis to determine the impact of accounting information on stock prices and volume traded around the firms’ earnings announcement dates. Findings – The authors find that quarterly earnings surprises explain stock abnormal returns and abnormal trading volumes around the earnings announcement dates in the Santiago (Chile) and Lima (Peru) stock exchanges. The authors also find that these two effects are driven by small firms. Originality/value – This is one of the first articles to study the price and volume reactions to accounting information in Latin American stock markets.

Anomalous Market Movements and the Rolling Settlement: Empirical Evidence from Indian Stock Markets

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chander ◽  
Kiran Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weekend Effect ◽  
Settlement Period ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Anomalous Pattern ◽  
Stock Price Movements

Investors and analysts are unable to predict stock price movements consistently so as to beat the market in informationally efficient markets. Still, concerted efforts are being made to earn abnormal returns discerning some anomalous pattern in the stock price movements. Also, the study of some structural changes in the market leading to, or removing some anomalous pattern in the stock prices, are of interest to investors and analysts. The present study was conceptualised to scrutinise whether anomalous patterns yield abnormal return consistently for any specific day of the week even after introduction of the compulsory rolling settlement on Indian bourses. Three market series viz., BSE Sensex, S and P CNX Nifty and S and P CNX 500 were observed on daily basis for ten years viz., i) Pre-rolling settlement period, April 1997 - December, 2001 and ii) Post-rolling settlement period, January 2002 - March 2007 to discern evidences in this regard. Contrary to developed capital markets, the results reported in this study documented lowest (significant) Friday returns in the pre-rolling settlement period as credible evidence for the weekend effect. The findings recorded for post-rolling settlement period were in harmony with those obtained elsewhere in the sense that Friday returns were highest and those on Monday were the lowest. It implied that arbitrage opportunities existed (for different trade settlement cycle on two exchanges, BSE and NSE) have disappeared consequent to the rolling settlement. On the whole, the study noted stock markets moved more rationally and anomalous return pattern noticed earlier could not sustain, in the post rolling settlement period.

scholarly journals Using a Genetic Algorithm to Build a Volume Weighted Average Price Model in a Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1011
Author(s):  
Seung Hwan Jeong ◽  
Hee Soo Lee ◽  
Hyun Nam ◽  
Kyong Joo Oh
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Average Price ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
The Impact

Research on stock market prediction has been actively conducted over time. Pertaining to investment, stock prices and trading volume are important indicators. While extensive research on stocks has focused on predicting stock prices, not much focus has been applied to predicting trading volume. The extensive trading volume by large institutions, such as pension funds, has a great impact on the market liquidity. To reduce the impact on the stock market, it is essential for large institutions to correctly predict the intraday trading volume using the volume weighted average price (VWAP) method. In this study, we predict the intraday trading volume using various methods to properly conduct VWAP trading. With the trading volume data of the Korean stock price index 200 (KOSPI 200) futures index from December 2006 to September 2020, we predicted the trading volume using dynamic time warping (DTW) and a genetic algorithm (GA). The empirical results show that the model using the simple average of the trading volume during the optimal period constructed by GA achieved the best performance. As a result of this study, we expect that large institutions will perform more appropriate VWAP trading in a sustainable manner, leading the stock market to be revitalized by enhanced liquidity. In this sense, the model proposed in this paper would contribute to creating efficient stock markets and help to achieve sustainable economic growth.

scholarly journals Stock Price Behavior In An Underdeveloped Capital Market: Nigeria In Contrast To The U.S.

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Zakri Bello
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Temporal Changes ◽  
Random Walk Model ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
Price Data ◽  
The U.S

Most of the studies of stock price behavior agree that temporal changes in prices follow the random walk model. With few exceptions these studies were based on American stock price data. The purpose of the present research is to study the behavior of Nigerian stock prices to find out if the observed behavior of American stock prices can be generalized to a small and thinly traded capital market. The findings reveal that Nigerian stock prices do not conform to the random walk model when traditional statistical analysis applied.

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