scholarly journals MULTIVARIATE TREND–CYCLE EXTRACTION WITH THE HODRICK–PRESCOTT FILTER

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1336-1360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Poloni ◽  
Giacomo Sbrana
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Asymptotically Normal ◽  
Moment Estimation ◽  
Multivariate Generalization ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Macroeconomic Time Series ◽  
Multivariate Likelihood

The Hodrick–Prescott filter represents one of the most popular methods for trend–cycle extraction in macroeconomic time series. In this paper we provide a multivariate generalization of the Hodrick–Prescott filter, based on the seemingly unrelated time series approach. We first derive closed-form expressions linking the signal–noise matrix ratio to the parameters of the VARMA representation of the model. We then show that the parameters can be estimated using a recently introduced method, called “Moment Estimation Through Aggregation (META).” This method replaces traditional multivariate likelihood estimation with a procedure that requires estimating univariate processes only. This makes the estimation simpler, faster, and better behaved numerically. We prove that our estimation method is consistent and asymptotically normal distributed for the proposed framework. Finally, we present an empirical application focusing on the industrial production of several European countries.

scholarly journals Detecting long-memory: Monte Carlo simulations and application to daily streamflow processes

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 1603-1627 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Wang ◽  
P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder ◽  
J. K. Vrijling ◽  
X. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Long Memory ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

Abstract. The Lo's R/S tests (Lo, 1991), GPH test (Geweke and Porter-Hudak, 1983) and the maximum likelihood estimation method implemented in S-Plus (S-MLE) are evaluated through intensive Mote Carlo simulations for detecting the existence of long-memory. It is shown that, it is difficult to find an appropriate lag q for Lo's test for different AR and ARFIMA processes, which makes the use of Lo's test very tricky. In general, the GPH test outperforms the Lo's test, but for cases where there is strong autocorrelations (e.g., AR(1) processes with φ=0.97 or even 0.99), the GPH test is totally useless, even for time series of large data size. Although S-MLE method does not provide a statistic test for the existence of long-memory, the estimates of d given by S-MLE seems to give a good indication of whether or not the long-memory is present. Data size has a significant impact on the power of all the three methods. Generally, the power of Lo's test and GPH test increases with the increase of data size, and the estimates of d with GPH test and S-MLE converge with the increase of data size. According to the results with the Lo's R/S test (Lo, 1991), GPH test (Geweke and Porter-Hudak, 1983) and the S-MLE method, all daily flow series exhibit long-memory. The intensity of long-memory in daily streamflow processes has only a very weak positive relationship with the scale of watershed.

Modeling and Analysis of the Exponential Unit with General Repair

2012 ◽  
Vol 198-199 ◽  
pp. 772-776
Author(s):  
Tian Hua Liu ◽  
Zhi Hua Zhang ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Qiang Hui Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Failure Rate ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Apparent Difference ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Moment Estimation ◽  
The Common

As to the fact that the common model of repair does not suit for the immemorial exponential unit, it first proposes the general repair model based on the Repair Degree. This model can describe the repair effect of the exponential unit exactly. Then it studies the classical estimation method of the parameters for the Repair Degree as well as the Failure Rate in the condition of general repair, that’s Moment Estimation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation. On this foundation, it compares the two methods by large amount of simulative data. Further, it figures out the estimation value of the Failure Rate on the assumption of ‘As Good As new after repair’. There exists apparent difference from the exact value. So it shows that the assumption of ‘As Good As new after repair’ is not appropriate.

scholarly journals Correction to: Measuring the impact of the Afordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on access to primary care using an interrupted time series approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Brown ◽  
Brandi M. White ◽  
Walter J. Jones ◽  
Mulugeta Gebregziabher ◽  
Kit N. Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Medicaid Expansion ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Access To Primary Care ◽  
The Impact

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

THE IMPACT OF THE HOTEL ROOM TAX: AN INTERRUPTED TIME SERIES APPROACH

1992 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
CARL BONHAM ◽  
EDWIN FUJII ◽  
ERIC IM ◽  
JAMES MAK
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Hotel Room ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals An edge-cloud collaboration architecture for pattern anomaly detection of time series in wireless sensor networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cong Gao ◽  
Ping Yang ◽  
Yanping Chen ◽  
Zhongmin Wang ◽  
Yue Wang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wireless Sensor Networks ◽  
Sensor Networks ◽  
Anomaly Detection ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Feature Representation ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Wireless Sensor ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Edge Node

AbstractWith large deployment of wireless sensor networks, anomaly detection for sensor data is becoming increasingly important in various fields. As a vital data form of sensor data, time series has three main types of anomaly: point anomaly, pattern anomaly, and sequence anomaly. In production environments, the analysis of pattern anomaly is the most rewarding one. However, the traditional processing model cloud computing is crippled in front of large amount of widely distributed data. This paper presents an edge-cloud collaboration architecture for pattern anomaly detection of time series. A task migration algorithm is developed to alleviate the problem of backlogged detection tasks at edge node. Besides, the detection tasks related to long-term correlation and short-term correlation in time series are allocated to cloud and edge node, respectively. A multi-dimensional feature representation scheme is devised to conduct efficient dimension reduction. Two key components of the feature representation trend identification and feature point extraction are elaborated. Based on the result of feature representation, pattern anomaly detection is performed with an improved kernel density estimation method. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted with synthetic data sets and real-world data sets.

scholarly journals The Role of Assumptions in Ohlson Model Performance: Lessons for Improving Equity-Value Modeling

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 513
Author(s):  
Olga Fullana ◽  
Mariano González ◽  
David Toscano
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Residual Income Valuation ◽  
Equity Value ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Linear Information

In this paper, we test whether the short-run econometric conditions for the basic assumptions of the Ohlson valuation model hold, and then we relate these results with the fulfillment of the short-run econometric conditions for this model to be effective. Better future modeling motivated us to analyze to what extent the assumptions involved in this seminal model are not good enough approximations to solve the firm valuation problem, causing poor model performance. The model is based on the well-known dividend discount model and the residual income valuation model, and it adds a linear information model, which is a time series model by nature. Therefore, we adopt the time series approach. In the presence of non-stationary variables, we focus our research on US-listed firms for which more than forty years of data with the required cointegration properties to use error correction models are available. The results show that the clean surplus relation assumption has no impact on model performance, while the unbiased accounting property assumption has an important effect on it. The results also emphasize the uselessness of forcing valuation models to match the value displacement property of dividends.

Institutional Quality and Trade Flow: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Other OIC Member Countries in Africa

2021 ◽  
pp. 097508782098717
Author(s):  
Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽  
Luqman Olanrewaju Afolabi ◽  
Waliu Olawale Shittu ◽  
Kafilah Lola Gold ◽  
Murtala Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flow ◽  
World Governance Indicators ◽  
The Impact

This article examines the impact of institutional quality on bilateral trade flow between Malaysia and selected 25 African Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. Four institutional qualities were selected from World Governance Indicators with other trade predictors from the period from 1985 to 2016. Using gravity model of trade and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method (PPML) technique, the results confirm that government effectiveness, regulatory quality and political stability have an adverse effect on bilateral trade flow among the OIC countries in Africa. On the other hand, these institutional quality variables were considered as a strength for Malaysian economic growth. Therefore, better institutional quality reforms are needed among OIC member countries in Africa in order to accelerate trade, economic growth and development in their region.

scholarly journals A multi-group higher-order factor analysis for studying the gender-effect in Teacher Job Satisfaction

METRON ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Cavicchia ◽  
Pasquale Sarnacchiaro
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Secondary School Teachers ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Teacher Job Satisfaction ◽  
Public Secondary School ◽  
Order Factor ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

AbstractTeachers’ performances also depend on whether and how they are satisfied with their job. Therefore, Teacher Job Satisfaction must be considered as the driver of teachers’ accomplishments. To plan future policies and improve the overall teaching process, it is crucial to understand which factors mostly contribute to Teacher Job Satisfaction. A Common Assessment Framework and Education questionnaire was administered to 163 Italian public secondary school teachers to collect data, and a second-order factor analysis was used to detect which factors impact on Teacher Job Satisfaction, and to what extent. This model-based approach guarantees to detect factors which respect important properties: unidimensionality and reliability. All the coefficients are estimated according to the maximum likelihood estimation method in order to make inference on the parameters and on the validity of the model. Moreover, a new multi-group test for higher-order factor analysis was proposed and implemented. Finally, we analyzed in detail whether the factors impacting Teacher Job Satisfaction are characterized by gender.

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