Turning Crisis into Opportunity: Unfolding Ukraine’s Trade Potential with the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement

To offset the devastating effects of the trade war waged by the Russian Federation, Ukraine has undertaken laudable efforts since 2014 to negotiate new trade agreements with other states. Against this background, the negotiations of the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement were finalized and the agreement came into force on 1 August 2017. This article explores the positive impact of this agreement on bilateral trade flow between the states and describes its potential contribution to unfolding Ukraine’s trade potential.

The application of gravity equation while accessing the environment of Pakistan-ASEAN technological trade flows

International trade, an important economic activity, has affected the human environment in varying degrees since its beginning. This research will carry out calculations and analyses on Pakistan-ASEAN bilateral and technological trade flows at a disaggregated level over 1995-2018. The current study found that medium-tech, high-tech, and low-tech trade flows, enhance economic growth in Pakistan and ASEAN, negatively impacting geographical distance by all technological trade flows. Similarly, the proportional element endowment confirms the Hecksher-Ohlin hypothesis. Yet, the perspective argues that countries with high production levels can exchange faster than their countries with lower output levels. Due to the variety in consumers’ taste, increased similarity yields increased technological trade volumes, highest values received by medium-tech trade flow, and total bilateral trade flow. Depreciation in exchange rates showing a positive sign for total bilateral trade, low-tech trade, and high-tech trade, whereas unenthusiastic in the case of medium-tech trade flow between Pakistan-ASEAN nations. Free trade agreement and WTO membership will also foster trade activities in conscientious and economic association in ecumenical. Pakistan trade patterns are different from ASEAN trade patterns, which increased the opportunity to enhance business activities.

Institutional Quality and Trade Flow: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Other OIC Member Countries in Africa

This article examines the impact of institutional quality on bilateral trade flow between Malaysia and selected 25 African Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries. Four institutional qualities were selected from World Governance Indicators with other trade predictors from the period from 1985 to 2016. Using gravity model of trade and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation method (PPML) technique, the results confirm that government effectiveness, regulatory quality and political stability have an adverse effect on bilateral trade flow among the OIC countries in Africa. On the other hand, these institutional quality variables were considered as a strength for Malaysian economic growth. Therefore, better institutional quality reforms are needed among OIC member countries in Africa in order to accelerate trade, economic growth and development in their region.

The Machine Prediction of the Mutual Trade between the PRC and the Czech Republic in the Global Extraordinary Situation

Research background: International trade is a substantial constituent of the global and regional economic development. The analysis of mutual trade serves as a tool for a monetary expression of economic transactions between a particular country and its foreign partners for a specific period. For the Czech Republic (CR), the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the biggest exporter and the second biggest importer. The USA, however, imposes a number of economic sanctions against the PRC that do not have any significant impact on the trade between both countries and the overall growth of the Chinese economy, yet they affect the behavior of consumers and producers both in the USA and in the PRC. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to use machine learning for predicting the future values of the mutual trade between the CR and the PRC for one calendar year (i.e. 12 months). Methods: Monthly data of these two states´ import and export are used to predict bilateral trade flow. The time series begins in January 2005 and ends in April 2020. Thus, the time series contains 184 data lines. Artificial intelligence - artificial neural networks - is used to predict bilateral trade flow between the PRC and the CR. The development of trade is then compared with the mutual sanctions of the PRC and the USA. Findings & Value added: This is expected that the mutual trade balance to be negative from the perspective of the CR. COVID-19 or the sanctions imposed in the international trade will not significantly affect the development of the mutual trade between the CR and the PRC.

Does political risk lower bilateral trade flow? A gravity panel framework for Thailand vis-à-vis her trading partners

PurposePolitical risk factors play a pivotal role in determining the bilateral trade flow of Asian countries in general and the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries in particular. The main purpose of this research paper is to examine the impact of disaggregated political risk in lowering the bilateral trade flow of Thailand, a prominent member of ASEAN, vis-à-vis her 132 trading partners.Design/methodology/approachUsing panel data of Thailand with her partner countries for the period 1984–2015, this paper uses four different panel specifications named pooled ordinary least squares and random effects estimations (estimated generalized least squares estimation) of three types by controlling for cross-sectional heteroscedasticity, time-wise heteroscedasticity and contemporaneous correlation.FindingsHolding other gravity-based determinants constant, for one unit increase in the ranking of indicator of military in politics at home and abroad, trade flow decreases by 5–9% of the total trade flow of Thailand per year. For other types of political risks like government instability at home and abroad, difficulties in investment profile at home and abroad and internal and external conflict at home and abroad, the decrease is also substantial and most statistically significant. The magnitude of loss due to the military channel at home and abroad can amount to US$9.38–US$16.88 bn per year for Thailand, after controlling for other gravity variables.Research limitations/implicationsThe reasons for risk originating from different political channels could be explored at the regional or global level to understand their global and local dimensions.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should attempt to resolve the political risks at home and abroad in an amicable manner, through dialogue, so that bilateral trade flow is not inhibited.Social implicationsBy taking economic reforms only, the trading problem cannot be resolved until and unless Thailand involves her society, politics and administrative mechanisms in a conducive manner to facilitate her trade. A dialogue among bureaucracy, political authority and military is beneficial in mitigating political risks.Originality/valueThe paper is unique in the sense that it makes a solid attempt to identify the potential channels of disaggregated political risk in affecting trade flow negatively, in a gravity framework, by controlling for different kinds of error structure.

AN EXAMINATION OF RECENT TRENDS, COMPOSITION AND TRADE INTENSITY OF NIGERIA-BRAZIL BILATERAL RELATIONS

This paper examines the trends, composition and trade intensity of Nigeria-Brazil bilateral trade relations for the period 2000-2017. Tables, graphs, and trade intensity index were employed. The results indicate that Nigeria's trade with Brazil has significantly recorded impressive growth. However, the share of major products exported to Brazil over the period remained insignificant with the exception of mineral fuels. The results further show that the share of major products imported from Brazil is significant, indicating that Brazilian exports to Nigeria are more diversified than that of Nigeria's export to Brazil. The trade intensity index indicates high trade intensities between the countries and the high possibility of increasing bilateral trade flow. Based on these findings, the study recommends the need for Nigeria’s export to be restructured in order to reduce the prevailing role of mineral fuels to Nigeria's exports through diversification and identification of new export opportunities in Brazilian markets.