Partially linear model estimation for missing response data

This paper will discuss the estimation of a partially linear (semiparametric) model with missing responses using the normal approach. An estimator class is defined which includes special cases, namely the partially linear imputation estimator, the marginal mean estimator and the trend score weighted estimator. The estimator class is asymptotically normal. The three special estimators have the same asymptotic variance. Based on the above conditions, the mean F will be estimated, say θ. The three special estimators above will be used to estimate the mean F, namely in the form of point estimates and confidence intervals with some missing responses using the normal approach method.

“Go Wild for a While!”: A New Test for Forecast Evaluation in Nested Models

In this paper, we present a new asymptotically normal test for out-of-sample evaluation in nested models. Our approach is a simple modification of a traditional encompassing test that is commonly known as Clark and West test (CW). The key point of our strategy is to introduce an independent random variable that prevents the traditional CW test from becoming degenerate under the null hypothesis of equal predictive ability. Using the approach developed by West (1996), we show that in our test, the impact of parameter estimation uncertainty vanishes asymptotically. Using a variety of Monte Carlo simulations in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts, we evaluated our test and CW in terms of size and power. These simulations reveal that our approach is reasonably well-sized, even at long horizons when CW may present severe size distortions. In terms of power, results were mixed but CW has an edge over our approach. Finally, we illustrate the use of our test with an empirical application in the context of the commodity currencies literature.

R-estimators in GARCH models; asymptotics and applications

The quasi-maximum likelihood estimation is a commonly-used method for estimating the GARCH parameters. However, such estimators are sensitive to outliers and their asymptotic normality is proved under the finite fourth moment assumption on the underlying error distribution. In this paper, we propose a novel class of estimators of the GARCH parameters based on ranks of the residuals, called R-estimators, with the property that they are asymptotically normal under the existence of a finite 2 + δ moment of the errors and are highly efficient. We propose fast algorithm for computing the R-estimators. Both real data analysis and simulations show the superior performance of the proposed estimators under the heavy-tailed and asymmetric distributions.

Partially Linear Models with Endogeneity: a conditional moment based approach

In a partially linear conditional moment model, we propose a new estimator for the slope parameter of the endogenous variable of interest which combines a Robinson’s transformation (Robinson (1988)), to partial out the non-linear part of the model, with a smooth minimum distance approach (Lavergne and Patilea (2013)), to exploit all the information of the conditional mean independence restriction. Our estimator only depends on one tuning parameter, is easy to compute, consistent and $\sqrt{n}$-asymptotically normal under standard regularity conditions. Simulations show that our estimator is competitive with GMM-type estimators, and often displays a smaller bias and variance, as well as better coverage rates for confidence intervals. We revisit and extend some of the empirical results in Dinkelman (2011b) who estimates the impact of electrification on employment growth in South Africa: overall, we obtain estimates that are smaller in magnitude, more precise, and still economically relevant.

On copula moment: empirical likelihood based estimation method

PurposeIn this paper, the authors applied the empirical likelihood method, which was originally proposed by Owen, to the copula moment based estimation methods to take advantage of its properties, effectiveness, flexibility and reliability of the nonparametric methods, which have limiting chi-square distributions and may be used to obtain tests or confidence intervals. The authors derive an asymptotically normal estimator of the empirical likelihood based on copula moment estimation methods (ELCM). Finally numerical performance with a simulation experiment of ELCM estimator is studied and compared to the CM estimator, with a good result.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper we applied the empirical likelihood method which originally proposed by Owen, to the copula moment based estimation methods.FindingsWe derive an asymptotically normal estimator of the empirical likelihood based on copula moment estimation methods (ELCM). Finally numerical performance with a simulation experiment of ELCM estimator is studied and compared to the CM estimator, with a good result.Originality/valueIn this paper we applied the empirical likelihood method which originally proposed by Owen 1988, to the copula moment based estimation methods given by Brahimi and Necir 2012. We derive an new estimator of copula parameters and the asymptotic normality of the empirical likelihood based on copula moment estimation methods.

Parameter Resolution of the Estimation Methods for Power Law Indices

The accuracy of parameter estimation plays an important role in economic and social models and experiments. Parameter resolution is the capability of an estimation algorithm to distinguish different parameters effectively under given noise level, which can be used to select appropriate algorithm for experimental or empirical data. We use a flexible distinguishing criterion and present a framework to compute the parameter resolution by bootstrap and simulation, which can be used in different models and algorithms, even for non-Gaussian noises. The parameter resolutions are computed for power law models and corresponding algorithms. For power law signal, with the increase of SNR, parameter resolution is finer; with the decrease of parameter, the resolution is finer. The standard deviation of noise and parameter resolution satisfies the linear relation; it relates to interval estimation naturally if the estimation algorithm is asymptotically normal. For power law distribution, parameter and resolution satisfy the linear relation, and experimental slope and theoretical slope tend to be consistent when significance level approaches zero. Last, we select an algorithm with finer resolution to estimate the Pareto index for the Forbes list of global rich data in recent 10 years and analyze the changes in the gap between the rich and the poor.

Hidden Words Statistics for Large Patterns

We study here the so called subsequence pattern matching also known as hidden pattern matching in which one searches for a given pattern $w$ of length $m$ as a subsequence in a random text of length $n$. The quantity of interest is the number of occurrences of $w$ as a subsequence (i.e., occurring in not necessarily consecutive text locations). This problem finds many applications from intrusion detection, to trace reconstruction, to deletion channel, and to DNA-based storage systems. In all of these applications, the pattern $w$ is of variable length. To the best of our knowledge this problem was only tackled for a fixed length $m=O(1)$. In our main result we prove that for $m=o(n^{1/3})$ the number of subsequence occurrences is normally distributed. In addition, we show that under some constraints on the structure of $w$ the asymptotic normality can be extended to $m=o(\sqrt{n})$. For a special pattern $w$ consisting of the same symbol, we indicate that for $m=o(n)$ the distribution of number of subsequences is either asymptotically normal or asymptotically log normal. After studying some special patterns (e.g., alternating) we conjecture that this dichotomy is true for all patterns. We use Hoeffding's projection method for $U$-statistics to prove our findings.

A New Class of Estimators Based on a General Relative Loss Function

Motivated by the relative loss estimator of the median, we propose a new class of estimators for linear quantile models using a general relative loss function defined by the Box–Cox transformation function. The proposed method is very flexible. It includes a traditional quantile regression and median regression under the relative loss as special cases. Compared to the traditional linear quantile estimator, the proposed estimator has smaller variance and hence is more efficient in making statistical inferences. We show that, in theory, the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate conditions. Extensive simulation studies were conducted, demonstrating good performance of the proposed method. An application of the proposed method in a prostate cancer study is provided.

On the power of Chatterjee’s rank correlation

Chatterjee (2021+) introduced a simple new rank correlation coefficient that has attracted much recent attention. The coefficient has the unusual appeal that it not only estimates a population quantity first proposed by Dette et al. (2013) that is zero if and only if the underlying pair of random variables is independent, but also is asymptotically normal under independence. This paper compares Chatterjee’s new correlation coefficient to three established rank correlations that also facilitate consistent tests of independence, namely, Hoeffding’s D, Blum–Kiefer– Rosenblatt’s R, and Bergsma–Dassios–Yanagimoto’s τ *. We contrast their computational efficiency in light of recent advances, and investigate their power against local rotation and mixture alternatives. Our main results show that Chatterjee’s coefficient is unfortunately rate sub-optimal compared to D, R, and τ *. The situation is more subtle for a related earlier estimator of Dette et al. (2013). These results favor D, R, and τ * over Chatterjee’s new correlation coefficient for the purpose of testing independence.

Confidence intervals for policy evaluation in adaptive experiments

Adaptive experimental designs can dramatically improve efficiency in randomized trials. But with adaptively collected data, common estimators based on sample means and inverse propensity-weighted means can be biased or heavy-tailed. This poses statistical challenges, in particular when the experimenter would like to test hypotheses about parameters that were not targeted by the data-collection mechanism. In this paper, we present a class of test statistics that can handle these challenges. Our approach is to adaptively reweight the terms of an augmented inverse propensity-weighting estimator to control the contribution of each term to the estimator’s variance. This scheme reduces overall variance and yields an asymptotically normal test statistic. We validate the accuracy of the resulting estimates and their CIs in numerical experiments and show that our methods compare favorably to existing alternatives in terms of mean squared error, coverage, and CI size.