ES&T Series: Fisheries Risk Assessment Sources of Uncertainty: A Case Study of Georges Bank Haddock

1992 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 440-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Fogarty ◽  
Andrew Rosenberg ◽  
Michael Sissenwine
2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret Donald ◽  
Kerrie Mengersen ◽  
Simon Toze ◽  
Jatinder P.S. Sidhu ◽  
Angus Cook

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael H. Azarian

Abstract As counterfeiting techniques and processes grow in sophistication, the methods needed to detect these parts must keep pace. This has the unfortunate effect of raising the costs associated with managing this risk. In order to ensure that the resources devoted to counterfeit detection are commensurate with the potential effects and likelihood of counterfeit part usage in a particular application, a risk based methodology has been adopted for testing of electrical, electronic, and electromechanical (EEE) parts by the SAE AS6171 set of standards. This paper provides an overview of the risk assessment methodology employed within AS6171 to determine the testing that should be utilized to manage the risk associated with the use of a part. A scenario is constructed as a case study to illustrate how multiple solutions exist to address the risk for a particular situation, and the choice of any specific test plan can be made on the basis of practical considerations, such as cost, time, or the availability of particular test equipment.


2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1264-1270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Slooten ◽  
David Fletcher ◽  
Barbara L. Taylor
Keyword(s):  

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Xianwu ◽  
Qiu Jufei ◽  
Chen Bingrui ◽  
Zhang Xiaojie ◽  
Guo Haoshuang ◽  
...  

IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Amir Farmahini Farahani ◽  
Kaveh Khalili-Damghani ◽  
Hosein Didehkhani ◽  
Amir Homayoun Sarfaraz ◽  
Mehdi Hajirezaie

Author(s):  
Zuzhen Ji ◽  
Dirk Pons ◽  
John Pearse

Successful implementation of Health and Safety (H&S) systems requires an effective mechanism to assess risk. Existing methods focus primarily on measuring the safety aspect; the risk of an accident is determined based on the product of severity of consequence and likelihood of the incident arising. The health component, i.e., chronic harm, is more difficult to assess. Partially, this is due to both consequences and the likelihood of health issues, which may be indeterminate. There is a need to develop a quantitative risk measurement for H&S risk management and with better representation for chronic health issues. The present paper has approached this from a different direction, by adopting a public health perspective of quality of life. We have then changed the risk assessment process to accommodate this. This was then applied to a case study. The case study showed that merely including the chronic harm scales appeared to be sufficient to elicit a more detailed consideration of hazards for chronic harm. This suggests that people are not insensitive to chronic harm hazards, but benefit from having a framework in which to communicate them. A method has been devised to harmonize safety and harm risk assessments. The result was a comprehensive risk assessment method with consideration of safety accidents and chronic health issues. This has the potential to benefit industry by making chronic harm more visible and hence more preventable.


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