Biased Processing of Ambiguous Symptoms Favors the Initially Leading Hypothesis in Sequential Diagnostic Reasoning

Author(s):  
Felix G. Rebitschek ◽  
Franziska Bocklisch ◽  
Agnes Scholz ◽  
Josef F. Krems ◽  
Georg Jahn

Abstract. In sequential diagnostic reasoning, observed pieces of evidence activate hypotheses in memory and are integrated to reach a final diagnosis. The order of evidence can influence diagnostic reasoning. This article examines the processing of ambiguous evidence underlying order effects if multiple hypotheses are activated. In five experiments with a quasi-medical scenario, participants dealt with symptom sequences supporting multiple diagnoses. The symptom order, the response mode (end-of-sequence, step-by-step), and the consistency of evidence were manipulated. A primacy order effect occurred with both response modes suggesting that ambiguous pieces of evidence were distorted toward the hypothesis that strongly corresponded with the first piece. The primacy effect was partially counteracted by stepwise belief ratings, which strengthened the weight of recent evidence and promoted switching to an alternative diagnosis. We conclude that once hypotheses are generated, the interplay of coherence-oriented information distortion and memory-dependent analytic processes propagates into distinct order effects in diagnoses.

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid Vriens ◽  
Guy Moors ◽  
John Gelissen ◽  
Jeroen K. Vermunt

Measuring values in sociological research sometimes involves the use of ranking data. A disadvantage of a ranking assignment is that the order in which the items are presented might influence the choice preferences of respondents regardless of the content being measured. The standard procedure to rule out such effects is to randomize the order of items across respondents. However, implementing this design may be impractical and the biasing impact of a response order effect cannot be evaluated. We use a latent choice factor (LCF) model that allows statistically controlling for response order effects. Furthermore, the model adequately deals with the known issue of ipsativity of ranking data. Applying this model to a Dutch survey on work values, we show that a primacy effect accounts for response order bias in item preferences. Our findings demonstrate the usefulness of the LCF model in modeling ranking data while taking into account particular response biases.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 511
Author(s):  
Wulandari Fitri Ekasari ◽  
Supriyadi Supriyadi

This study is aimed to empirically test the moderating roles of information framing and cognitive style on recency effect in budgeting decision, as a part of management accounting decisions. Laboratory experimental method used in this study with a 2x2x2 between-subjects design involving participants of 100 undergraduate accounting students at two universities in Central of Java and Yogyakarta provinces. The results of this study indicate that in the Step-by-Step (sequentially) response mode, the occurence of recency effects can be mitigated by information framing. In contrast, participants in the End-of-Sequence (simultaneously) response mode did not experience any order effects. Moreover, the interesting finding is that the interaction effect between information order and response modes indicating that the End-of-Sequence response mode alone can reduce the recency effects. However, the prediction of interaction effect between information order, information framing, and cognitive styles in both Step-by-Step and End-of-Sequence was not supported.


2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 511-527
Author(s):  
Wulandari Fitri Ekasari ◽  
Supriyadi Supriyadi

This study is aimed to empirically test the moderating roles of information framing and cognitive style on recency effect in budgeting decision, as a part of management accounting decisions. Laboratory experimental method used in this study with a 2x2x2 between-subjects design involving participants of 100 undergraduate accounting students at two universities in Central of Java and Yogyakarta provinces. The results of this study indicate that in the Step-by-Step (sequentially) response mode, the occurence of recency effects can be mitigated by information framing. In contrast, participants in the End-of-Sequence (simultaneously) response mode did not experience any order effects. Moreover, the interesting finding is that the interaction effect between information order and response modes indicating that the End-of-Sequence response mode alone can reduce the recency effects. However, the prediction of interaction effect between information order, information framing, and cognitive styles in both Step-by-Step and End-of-Sequence was not supported.


2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Burnette ◽  
Erin G. Piker ◽  
Dennis Frank-Ito

Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine whether a significant order effect exists in the binaural bithermal caloric test. Method Fifteen volunteers (mean age = 24.3 years, range = 18–38 years) with no history of vestibular disorder, hearing loss, concussion, or neurological disease underwent caloric testing on 3 occasions. Irrigations were randomized using 8 possible order combinations. The parameters of interest included unilateral weakness, directional preponderance, total response from the right ear, and total response from the left ear. Results Order effects were analyzed using 2 methods. The first analysis was done looking at the 8 possible orders. We also had an a priori established hypothesis that the first irrigation tested would influence the calculation of unilateral weakness more than the other 3 irrigations. To test this hypothesis, the 8 orders were condensed into 4 order conditions based on the first irrigation. The effect of order was determined using analysis of variance tests. Although the first irrigation tended to be the largest, no significant effects were observed. Conclusions This experiment demonstrated that while there is great inter-individual and intra-individual variability in caloric test results, the order of irrigations had no significant effect in the test. Future studies may explore the effects of nonphysiological factors on test results.


2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew W. Strawn ◽  
Todd J. Thorsteinson
Keyword(s):  

2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 857-862
Author(s):  
Qi Shi Zhou ◽  
Xu Hong Zhou ◽  
Li Ming Yang

Based on the structural characteristics that the distribution of mass and stiffness is symmetrical in staggered truss structure, the load-carrying performance of staggered truss structure is equivalent to a pressure-bend combinational strut in this paper. By analyzing the relationship among curvatures , bending moments and shear forces of the pressure-bend combinational strut, the balance differential equations of the pressure-bend combinational strut is erected. Based on Runge-Kutta method, the lateral iteration equation derived by considering the influence of the second-order effects is derived. This paper analyzes the lateral displacements of floors of the staggered truss structure examples considering second-order effects or not, and gives a comparative analysis with the existing finite element software Ansys. The results show that the calculation method of second-order effects proposed in this paper has a good precision.


Second order or ‘cross’ effects arise as a result of quadratic terms in the constitutive equations of isotropic elastic, viscous and viscoelastic media, which are required by the condition of tensor invariance of those relations. The most pronounced second order effects arise when these are clearly separable from the first order deformation, as in the case of second order elongation and volume change of an elastic cylinder subject to a twisting moment, or of second order normal stress in the case of shear flow of polymeric liquids. The recent I. U. T. A. M. Conference on Second Order Effects (Pergamon Press, London, 1964) was mainly concerned with these two phenomena. The paper discusses second order effects in dissipative (viscoelastic, plastic and strain ­ hardening) solids and reports the results of experiments in which these effects were observed. While the experiments on elastomers confirm the Rivlin-Ericksen theory of those effects in viscoelastic media, the existence of a new accumulating second order effect has been discovered by experiments on aluminium specimens in reversed torsion (Ronay 1965). This effect, which has not been observed before, is probably responsible for the rapid acceleration of tensile creep in metals by small amplitudes of reversed torsion. While the second order effects in elastic solids vanish at zero strain since they are reversible, and vanish at zero velocity in polymeric fluids, they accumulate with the number of repeated torsion cycles in strain-hardening media. Hence their observation is very simple and does not require the elaborate procedures necessary for the observation of second order effects in elastic solids and viscous fluids. The theory of accumulating second order effects in strain-hardening media is developed; the linearity of the interaction between tensile load and torsion amplitude is demonstrated by the experiments.


2010 ◽  
Vol 163-167 ◽  
pp. 808-811
Author(s):  
Lin Feng Lu ◽  
Li Lin

This paper summarizes the regulations about steel frame second-order effect of some design code in the world, and find out a critical factor of controlling second-order effect. The second-order effects of staggered truss were studied systematically by using ETABS program, and put forward design proposals the second-order effects of internal force and displacement, the simplified formula on second-order effect magnification factor of displacement was given.


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