scholarly journals When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California

Author(s):  
Yosihiko Ogata ◽  
Lucile M. Jones ◽  
Shinji Toda
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.


1996 ◽  
Vol 86 (1A) ◽  
pp. 255-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sharon Kedar ◽  
Hiroo Kanamori

Abstract We have developed a method to detect long-period precursors for large earthquakes observed in southern California, if they occur. The method allows us to continuously monitor seismic energy radiation over a wide frequency band to investigate slow deformation in the crust (e.g., slow earthquakes), especially before large earthquakes. We used the long-period records (1 sample/sec) from TERRAscope, a broadband seismic network in southern California. The method consists of dividing the record into a series of overlapping 30-min-long windows, computing the spectra over a frequency band of 0.00055 to 0.1 Hz, and plotting them in the form of a time-frequency diagram called spectrogram. This procedure is repeated daily over a day-long record. We have analyzed the 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake (Mw = 6.7), and the 28 June 1992 Landers earthquake (Mw = 7.3). No slow precursor with spectral amplitude measured over a duration of 30 min larger than that of a magnitude 3.7 was detected prior to either event. In other words, there was no precursor whose moment was larger than ∼0.003% of the mainshock.


1996 ◽  
Vol 86 (1A) ◽  
pp. 43-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
James N. Brune

Abstract Groups of precariously balanced rocks are effectively low-resolution strong-motion seismoscopes that have been operating on solid rock outcrops for thousands of years and, once the methodology has been developed, can provide important information about seismic risk. In one zone, near Victorville, only 30 km from the nearest point on the San Andreas fault, more than 50 precarious rocks have been documented. Widespread rock varnish suggests that many of these rocks have been in their current unstable positions for thousands of years. We have established the mechanical basis for rough estimates of the horizontal accelerations necessary to topple these rocks, using field observations and numerical and physical modeling. To verify that zones of precarious rocks do not occur near historic earthquakes, searches using binoculars were made along roads, with occasional foot surveys, near large earthquakes. Based on these reconnaissance searches, we conclude that no precarious rock zones are found within 15 km of zones of high-energy release of historic large earthquakes. To document the occurrence of precarious rocks in southern California, road surveys were carried out along major roads. Four zones of precarious rocks and seven other zones of somewhat less precarious rocks have been documented. Published probabilistic ground-motion maps for southern California are compared with the occurrence of zones of precarious and semi-precarious rocks. The results are encouraging and suggest that eventually, studies of precarious rocks will provide important constraints on the assumptions on which the maps are based. Results from studies of precarious rocks may eventually provide important information for siting and design of sensitive structures such as hospitals and power plants. Precarious rocks give a direct indication of past ground shaking, in contrast to the indirect inference provided by fault-trenching studies, which may be subject to uncertainties in the actual time history of slip due to the fault (e.g., fault creep, “slow” earthquakes, or unknown dynamic stress drop). It is concluded that precarious rocks warrant further study and quantitative analysis.


Author(s):  
Yue Liu ◽  
Jiancang Zhuang ◽  
Changsheng Jiang

Abstract The aftershock zone of the 1976 Ms 7.8 Tangshan, China, earthquake remains seismically active, experiencing moderate events such as the 5 December 2019 Ms 4.5 Fengnan event. It is still debated whether aftershock sequences following large earthquakes in low-seismicity continental regions can persist for several centuries. To understand the current stage of the Tangshan aftershock sequence, we analyze the sequence record and separate background seismicity from the triggering effect using a finite-source epidemic-type aftershock sequence model. Our results show that the background rate notably decreases after the mainshock. The estimated probability that the most recent 5 December 2019 Ms 4.5 Fengnan District, Tangshan, earthquake is a background event is 50.6%. This indicates that the contemporary seismicity in the Tangshan aftershock zone can be characterized as a transition from aftershock activity to background seismicity. Although the aftershock sequence is still active in the Tangshan region, it is overridden by background seismicity.


1979 ◽  
Vol 117 (6) ◽  
pp. 1286-1300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Sheng Huang ◽  
John McRaney ◽  
Ta-Liang Teng ◽  
Mark Prebish

1987 ◽  
Vol 77 (6) ◽  
pp. 2074-2094
Author(s):  
L. K. Hutton ◽  
David M. Boore

Abstract Measurements (9,941) of peak amplitudes on Wood-Anderson instruments (or simulated Wood-Anderson instruments) in the Southern California Seismographic Network for 972 earthquakes, primarily located in southern California, were studied with the aim of determining a new distance correction curve for use in determining the local magnitude, ML. Events in the Mammoth Lakes area were found to give an unusual attenuation pattern and were excluded from the analysis, as were readings from any one earthquake at distances beyond the first occurrence of amplitudes less than 0.3 mm. The remaining 7,355 amplitudes from 814 earthquakes yielded the following equation for ML distance correction, log A0 − log A 0 = 1.110 log ( r / 100 ) + 0.00189 ( r − 100 ) + 3.0 where r is hypocentral distance in kilometers. A new set of station corrections was also determined from the analysis. The standard deviation of the ML residuals obtained by using this curve and the station corrections was 0.21. The data used to derive the equation came from earthquakes with hypocentral distances ranging from about 10 to 700 km and focal depths down to 20 km (with most depths less than 10 km). The log A0 values from this equation are similar to the standard values listed in Richter (1958) for 50 < r < 200 km (in accordance with the definition of ML, the log A0 value for r = 100 km was constrained to equal his value). The Wood-Anderson amplitudes decay less rapidly, however, than implied by Richter's correction. Because of this, the routinely determined magnitudes have been too low for nearby stations (r < 50 km) and too high for distant stations (r > 200 km). The effect at close distances is consistent with that found in several other studies, and is simply due to a difference in the observed ≈ 1/r geometrical spreading for body waves and the 1/r2 spreading assumed by Gutenberg and Richter in the construction of the log A0 table. ML's computed from our curve and those reported in the Caltech catalog show a systematic dependence on magnitude: small earthquakes have larger magnitudes than in the catalog and large earthquakes have smaller magnitudes (by as much as 0.6 units). To a large extent, these systematic differences are due to the nonuniform distribution of data in magnitude-distance space (small earthquakes are preferentially recorded at close distances relative to large earthquakes). For large earthquakes, however, the difference in the two magnitudes is not solely due to the new correction for attenuation; magnitudes computed using Richter's log A0 curve are also low relative to the catalog values. The differences in that case may be due to subjective judgment on the part of those determining the catalog magnitudes, the use of data other than the Caltech Wood-Anderson seismographs, the use of different station corrections, or the use of teleseismic magnitude determinations. Whatever their cause, the departures at large magnitude may explain a 1.0:0.7 proportionality found by Luco (1982) between ML's determined from real Wood-Anderson records and those from records synthesized from strong-motion instruments. If it were not for the biases in reported magnitudes, Luco's finding would imply a magnitude-dependent shape in the attenuation curves. We studied residuals in three magnitude classes (2.0 < ML ≦ 3.5, 3.5 < ML ≦ 5.5, and 5.5 < ML ≦ 7.0) and found no support for such a magnitude dependence. Based on our results, we propose that local magnitude scales be defined such that ML = 3 correspond to 10 mm of motion on a Wood-Anderson instrument at 17 km hypocentral distance, rather than 1 mm of motion at 100 km. This is consistent with the original definition of magnitude in southern California and will allow more meaningful comparison of earthquakes in regions having very different attenuation of waves within the first 100 km.


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