Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes

AbstractLocal scale estimates of temperature change in the twenty-first century are necessary for informed decision making in both the public and private sector. In order to generate such estimates for Chile, weather station data of the Dirección Meteorológica de Chile are used to identify large-scale predictors for local-scale temperature changes and construct individual empirical-statistical models for each station. The geographical coverage of weather stations ranges from Arica in the North to Punta Arenas in the South. Each model is trained in a cross-validated stepwise linear multiple regression procedure based on (24) weather station records and predictor time series derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The time period 1979–2000 is used for training, while independent data from 2001 to 2015 serves as a basis for assessing model performance. The resulting transfer functions for each station are then directly coupled to MPI-ESM simulations for future climate change under emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 to estimate the local temperature response until 2100 A.D. Our investigation into predictors for local scale temperature changes support established knowledge of the main drivers of Chilean climate, i.e. a strong influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in northern Chile and frontal system-governed climate in central and southern Chile. Temperature downscaling yields high prediction skill scores (ca. 0.8), with highest scores for the mid-latitudes. When forced with MPI-ESM simulations, the statistical models predict local temperature deviations from the 1979–2015 mean that range between − 0.5–2 K, 0.5–3 K and 2–7 K for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

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Large-Scale Temperature Changes Across the Southern Andes: 20th-Century Variations in the Context of the Past 400 Years

Advances in Global Change Research - Climate Variability and Change in High Elevation Regions: Past, Present & Future ◽

10.1007/978-94-015-1252-7_10 ◽

2003 ◽

pp. 177-232 ◽

Cited By ~ 26

Author(s):

Ricardo Villalba ◽

Antonio Lara ◽

José A. Boninsegna ◽

Mariano Masiokas ◽

Silvia Delgado ◽

...

Keyword(s):

20Th Century ◽

Large Scale ◽

Southern Andes ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

The Past ◽

Scale Temperature

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Influence of Circulation Patterns on Temperature Behavior at the Regional Scale: A Case Study Investigated via Neural Network Modeling

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00551.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 25 (6) ◽

pp. 2123-2128 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Antonello Pasini ◽

Rocco Langone

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Network Modeling ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Neural Network Modeling ◽

Limited Region ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

The North ◽

Circulation Patterns ◽

The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract An analysis of the influence of circulation patterns on temperature changes in an extended Italian Alpine area has been performed by nonlinear methods and neural network modeling. This leads to the clarification of the roles of these patterns in the various seasons and permits the development of models that are able to reconstruct in a satisfactory manner the behavior of temperature anomalies in the second half of the twentieth century in this limited region. This nonlinear analysis shows that the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is probably overestimated, and that European blocking and the Scandinavian pattern should be considered as prime candidates as temperature drivers in this area.

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Large-Scale Temperature Changes in the Stratosphere Observed from Nimbus III

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<1091:lstcit>2.0.co;2 ◽

1970 ◽

Vol 27 (7) ◽

pp. 1091-1097 ◽

Cited By ~ 83

Author(s):

S. Fritz ◽

S. D. Soules

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Scale Temperature

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Challenges and Opportunities in Relation to Sargassum Events Along the Caribbean Sea

Frontiers in Marine Science ◽

10.3389/fmars.2021.699664 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Daniel Robledo ◽

Erika Vázquez-Delfín ◽

Yolanda Freile-Pelegrín ◽

Román Manuel Vásquez-Elizondo ◽

Zujaila Nohemy Qui-Minet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regional Scale ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Caribbean Sea ◽

Spatiotemporal Variation ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Macroalgal Blooms ◽

Challenges And Opportunities ◽

Potential Applications ◽

The Caribbean

Mass blooms and stranding of pelagic Sargassum spp. in the Atlantic, termed Sargassum events are becoming more frequent in response to several factors: nutrient enrichment, increased temperature, changes in climatological patterns, but some causes remain unknown. The magnitude of Sargassum events in the Caribbean Sea since 2011 make us aware of the necessity to tackle these events, and macroalgal blooms generally, not only locally but on a regional scale. At least three pelagic species of Sargassum have been dominant in the blooms that have occurred along Caribbean coastlines in great quantities. Due to the regional scale of these events and its complexity, its management should be based on basic and applied information generated by different collaborative actors (national and international) through interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary work. To address this, we propose different phases (exploratory, valorization, and management) and the approach for their study should include detection, collection, stabilization and experimentation. This information will help identify the potential applications and/or ecological services to develop for the exploitation and mitigation strategies in the region. Relevant challenges and opportunities are discussed, remarking on the necessity to evaluate the spatiotemporal variation in the abundance and chemical composition of floating and stranded biomass. The above-mentioned will provide management strategies and economic opportunities as possible solutions to their extensive impact in the Caribbean.

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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Physical and Biogeochemical Environment in Southeast Asian Seas

10.21203/rs.3.rs-552834/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Susan Kay ◽

Arlene L. Avillanosa ◽

Victoria V. Cheung ◽

Ngoc Hung Dao ◽

Benjamin J. Gonzales ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Small Scale ◽

Biogeochemical Model ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract The seas of Southeast Asia are home to some of the world’s most diverse ecosystems and resources that support the livelihoods and wellbeing of millions of people. Climate change will bring temperature changes, acidification and other environmental change, with uncertain consequences for human and natural systems in the region. We present the first regional-scale projections of change in the marine environment up to the end of 21st century. A coupled physical-biogeochemical model with a resolution of 0.1° (approximately 11 km) was used to create projections of future environmental conditions under two greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These show a sea that is warming by 1.1–2.9°C through the 21st century, with surface pH falling by up to 0.02 and dissolved oxygen decreasing by 5 to 13 mmol m− 3. Changes for different parts of the region, including four sensitive coastal sites, are presented. The changes reach all parts of the water column and many places are projected to experience conditions well outside the range seen at the start of the century. Altered species distribution and damage to coral reefs resulting from this environmental change would have consequences for biodiversity, for the livelihoods of small-scale fishers and for the food security of coastal communities across the region. Projections of this type are a key tool for communities planning how they will adapt to the challenge of climate change.

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The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature

Climate of the Past Discussions ◽

10.5194/cpd-6-2517-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 6 (6) ◽

pp. 2517-2555 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

G. van der Schrier ◽

A. van Ulden ◽

G. J. van Oldenborgh

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

The Netherlands ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Temperature Series ◽

Homogeneity Analysis ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Long Time Series ◽

Scale Temperature ◽

Long Time

Abstract. The Central Netherlands Temperature (CNT) is a monthly daily mean temperature series constructed from homogenised time series from the centre of the Netherlands. The purpose of this series is to offer a homogeneous time series representative of a larger area to study large-scale temperature changes. It will also facilitate a comparison with climate models, which resolve similar scales. From 1906 onwards, temperature measurements in the Netherlands have been sufficiently standardised to construct a high-quality series. Long time series have been constructed by merging nearby stations, using the overlap to calibrate the differences. These long time series and a few time series of only a few decades in length, have been subjected to a homogeneity analysis in which significant breaks and artificial trends have been corrected. Many of the detected breaks correspond to changes in the observations that are documented in the station metadata. This version of the CNT, to which we attach the version number 1.1, is constructed as the unweighted average of four stations (De Bilt, Winterswijk/Hupsel, Oudenbosch/Gilze-Rijen and Gemert/Volkel) with the stations Eindhoven and Deelen added from 1951 and 1958 respectively onwards.

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