Detecting natural influence on surface air temperature change in the early twentieth century

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Toru Nozawa ◽  
Tatsuya Nagashima ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
Simon A. Crooks
2022 ◽  
pp. 1-59

Abstract A review of many studies published since the late 1920s reveals that the main driving mechanisms responsible for the Early Twentieth Century Arctic Warming (ETCAW) are not fully recognized. The main obstacle seems to be our limited knowledge about the climate of this period and some forcings. A deeper knowledge based on greater spatial and temporal resolution data is needed. The article provides new (or improved) knowledge about surface air temperature (SAT) conditions (including their extreme states) in the Arctic during the ETCAW. Daily and sub-daily data have been used (mean daily air temperature, maximum and minimum daily temperature, and diurnal temperature range). These were taken from ten individual years (selected from the period 1934–50) for six meteorological stations representing parts of five Arctic climatic regions. Standard SAT characteristics were analyzed (monthly, seasonal, and yearly means), as were rarely investigated aspects of SAT characteristics (e.g., number of characteristic days; day-to-day temperature variability; and onset, end, and duration of thermal seasons). The results were compared with analogical calculations done for data taken from the Contemporary Arctic Warming (CAW) period (2007–16). The Arctic experienced warming between the ETCAW and the CAW. The magnitude of warming was greatest in the Pacific (2.7 °C) and Canadian Arctic (1.9 °C) regions. A shortening of winter and lengthening of summer were registered. Furthermore, the climate was also a little more continental (except the Russian Arctic) and less stable (greater day-to-day variability and diurnal temperature range) during the ETCAW than during the CAW.


Author(s):  
Yu Wang ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Fei Ji ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
Liu Yang ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 129 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1133-1144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Hua ◽  
Samuel S. P. Shen ◽  
Alexander Weithmann ◽  
Huijun Wang

2010 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu-Chao YANG ◽  
Yi-Li ZHANG ◽  
Ming-Jun DING ◽  
Lin-Shan LIU ◽  
Zhao-Feng WANG ◽  
...  

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 5843-5858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Rucong Yu

Abstract This paper examines variations of the surface air temperature (SAT) over China and the globe in the twentieth century simulated by 19 coupled climate models driven by historical natural and anthropogenic forcings. Most models perform well in simulating both the global and the Northern Hemispheric mean SAT evolutions of the twentieth century. The inclusion of natural forcings improves the simulation, in particular for the first half of the century. The reproducibility of the SAT averaged over China is lower than that of the global and hemispheric averages, but it is still acceptable. The contribution of natural forcings to the SAT over China in the first half of the century is not as robust as that to the global and hemispheric averages. No model could successfully produce the reconstructed warming over China in the 1920s. The prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings in the coupled climate models mainly produce the warming trends and the decadal- to interdecadal-scale SAT variations with poor performances at shorter time scales. The prominent warming trend in the last half of the century over China and its acceleration in recent decades are weakly simulated. There are discrepancies between the simulated and observed regional features of the SAT trend over China. Few models could produce the summertime cooling over the middle part of eastern China (27°–36°N), while two models acceptably produce the meridional gradients of the wintertime warming trends, with north China experiencing larger warming. Limitations of the current state-of-the-art coupled climate models in simulating spatial patterns of the twentieth-century SAT over China cast a shadow upon their capability toward projecting credible geographical distributions of future climate change through Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario simulations.


2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soikun Fong ◽  
Chisheng Wu ◽  
Anyu Wang ◽  
Xiajiang He ◽  
Ting Wang ◽  
...  

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