A new river flooding scheme for global climate applications: Off-line evaluation over South America

2008 ◽  
Vol 113 (D11) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Decharme ◽  
H. Douville ◽  
C. Prigent ◽  
F. Papa ◽  
F. Aires
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
River Flooding

scholarly journals Future climate change will impact the size and location of breeding and wintering areas of migratory thrushes in South America

The Condor ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natália Stefanini Da Silveira ◽  
Maurício Humberto Vancine ◽  
Alex E Jahn ◽  
Marco Aurélio Pizo ◽  
Thadeu Sobral-Souza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Wintering Areas

Abstract Bird migration patterns are changing worldwide due to current global climate changes. Addressing the effects of such changes on the migration of birds in South America is particularly challenging because the details about how birds migrate within the Neotropics are generally not well understood. Here, we aim to infer the potential effects of future climate change on breeding and wintering areas of birds that migrate within South America by estimating the size and elevations of their future breeding and wintering areas. We used occurrence data from species distribution databases (VertNet and GBIF), published studies, and eBird for 3 thrush species (Turdidae; Turdus nigriceps, T. subalaris, and T. flavipes) that breed and winter in different regions of South America and built ecological niche models using ensemble forecasting approaches to infer current and future potential distributions throughout the breeding and wintering periods of each species. Our findings point to future shifts in wintering and breeding areas, mainly through elevational and longitudinal changes. Future breeding areas for T. nigriceps, which migrates along the Andes Mountains, will be displaced to the west, while breeding displacements to the east are expected for the other 2 species. An overall loss in the size of future wintering areas was also supported for 2 of the species, especially for T. subalaris, but an increase is anticipated for T. flavipes. Our results suggest that future climate change in South America will require that species shift their breeding and wintering areas to higher elevations in addition to changes in their latitudes and longitude. Our findings are the first to show how future climate change may affect migratory birds in South America throughout the year and suggest that even closely related migratory birds in South America will be affected in different ways, depending on the regions where they breed and overwinter.

scholarly journals Climate change and sectors of the surface water cycle in CMIP5 projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 8537-8569 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Dirmeyer ◽  
G. Fang ◽  
Z. Wang ◽  
P. Yadav ◽  
A. D. Milton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Change Models ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract. Results from ten global climate change models are synthesized to investigate changes in extremes, defined as wettest and driest deciles in precipitation, soil moisture and runoff based on each model's historical twentieth century simulated climatology. Under a moderate warming scenario, regional increases in drought frequency are found with little increase in floods. For more severe warming, both drought and flood become much more prevalent, with nearly the entire globe significantly affected. Soil moisture changes tend toward drying while runoff trends toward flood. To determine how different sectors of society dependent the on various components of the surface water cycle may be affected, changes in monthly means and interannual variability are compared to data sets of crop distribution and river basin boundaries. For precipitation, changes in interannual variability can be important even when there is little change in the long-term mean. Over 20% of the globe is projected to experience a combination of reduced precipitation and increased variability under severe warming. There are large differences in the vulnerability of different types of crops, depending on their spatial distributions. Increases in soil moisture variability are again found to be a threat even where soil moisture is not projected to decrease. The combination of increased variability and greater annual discharge over many basins portends increased risk of river flooding, although a number of basins are projected to suffer surface water shortages.

Climate engineering to mitigate the projected 21st-century terrestrial drying of the Americas: a direct comparison of carbon capture and sulfur injection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Simone Tilmes ◽  
Katherine Dagon ◽  
Lili Xia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
South America ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Amazon Region ◽  
Global Climate Models

<p>To mitigate the projected global warming in the 21st century, it is well-recognized that society needs to cut CO2 emissions and other short-lived warming agents aggressively. However, to stabilize the climate at a warming level closer to the present day, such as the “well below 2 ◦C” aspiration in the Paris Agreement, a net-zero carbon emission by 2050 is still insufficient. The recent IPCC special report calls for a massive scheme to extract CO2 directly from the atmosphere, in addition to decarbonization, to reach negative net emissions at the mid-century mark. Another ambitious proposal is solar-radiation-based geoengineering schemes, including injecting sulfur gas into the stratosphere. Despite being in public debate for years, these two leading geoengineering schemes have not been directly compared under a consistent analytical framework using global climate models.</p><p>Here we present the first explicit analysis of the hydroclimate impacts of these two geoengineering approaches using two recently available large-ensemble model experiments conducted by a family of state-of-the-art Earth system models. Our analysis focuses on the projected aridity conditions over the Americas in the 21st century in detailed terms of the potential mitigation benefits, the temporal evolution, the spatial distribution (within North and South America), the relative efficiency, and the physical mechanisms. We show that sulfur injection, in contrast to previous notions of leading to excessive terrestrial drying (in terms of precipitation reduction) while offsetting the global mean greenhouse gas (GHG) warming, will instead mitigate the projected drying tendency under RCP8.5. The surface energy balance change induced by sulfur injection, in addition to the well-known response in temperature and precipitation, plays a crucial role in determining the overall terrestrial hydroclimate response. However, when normalized by the same amount of avoided global warming in these simulations, sulfur injection is less effective in curbing the worsening trend of regional land aridity in the Americas under RCP8.5 when compared with carbon capture. Temporally, the climate benefit of sulfur injection will emerge more quickly, even when both schemes are hypothetically started in the same year of 2020. Spatially, both schemes are effective in curbing the drying trend over North America. However, for South America, the sulfur injection scheme is particularly more effective for the sub-Amazon region (southern Brazil), while the carbon capture scheme is more effective for the Amazon region. We conclude that despite the apparent limitations (such as an inability to address ocean acidification) and potential side effects (such as changes to the ozone layer), innovative means of sulfur injection should continue to be explored as a potential low-cost option in the climate solution toolbox, complementing other mitigation approaches such as emission cuts and carbon capture (Cao et al., 2017). Our results demonstrate the urgent need for multi-model comparison studies and detailed regional assessments in other parts of the world.</p>

scholarly journals Hydrologic variation during the last 170,000 years in the southern hemisphere tropics of South America

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sherilyn C. Fritz ◽  
Paul A. Baker ◽  
Tim K. Lowenstein ◽  
Geoffrey O. Seltzer ◽  
Catherine A. Rigsby ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Glacial Period ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Insolation Forcing ◽  
The Last Glacial Maximum ◽  
The Last Glacial

Despite the hypothesized importance of the tropics in the global climate system, few tropical paleoclimatic records extend to periods earlier than the last glacial maximum (LGM), about 20,000 years before present. We present a well-dated 170,000-year time series of hydrologic variation from the southern hemisphere tropics of South America that extends from modern times through most of the penultimate glacial period. Alternating mud and salt units in a core from Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia reflect alternations between wet and dry periods. The most striking feature of the sequence is that the duration of paleolakes increased in the late Quaternary. This change may reflect increased precipitation, geomorphic or tectonic processes that affected basin hydrology, or some combination of both. The dominance of salt between 170,000 and 140,000 yr ago indicates that much of the penultimate glacial period was dry, in contrast to wet conditions in the LGM. Our analyses also suggest that the relative influence of insolation forcing on regional moisture budgets may have been stronger during the past 50,000 years than in earlier times.

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble of statistically downscaled GCMs over southeastern South America: historical evaluation and future projections of daily precipitation with focus on extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matias Ezequiel Olmo ◽  
Rocio Balmaceda-Huarte ◽  
Maria Laura Bettolli
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Model Ensemble

Abstract High-resolution climate information is required over southeastern South America (SESA) for a better understanding of the observed and projected climate changes due to their strong socio-economic and hydrological impacts. Thereby, this work focuses on the construction of an unprecedented multi-model ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for daily precipitation, considering different statistical techniques - including analogs, generalized linear models and neural networks - and a variety of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. The skills and shortcomings of the different downscaled models were identified. Most of the methods added value in the representation of the main features of daily precipitation, especially in the spatial and intra-annual variability of extremes. The statistical methods showed to be sensitive to the driver GCMs, although the ESD family choice also introduced differences in the simulations. The statistically downscaled projections depicted increases in mean precipitation associated with a rising frequency of extreme events - mostly during the warm season - following the registered trends over SESA. Change rates were consistent among downscaled models up to the middle 21st century when model spread started to emerge. Furthermore, these projections were compared to the available CORDEX-CORE RCM simulations, evidencing a consistent agreement between statistical and dynamical downscaling procedures in terms of the sign of the changes, presenting some differences in their intensity. Overall, this study evidences the potential of statistical downscaling in a changing climate and contributes to its undergoing development over SESA.

Climate Change and Fecal Peril

2022 ◽  
pp. 1738-1764
Author(s):  
Ahmed Khadra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Intestinal Parasites ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Intestinal Protozoa ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Parasitic Worms

Fecal peril caused by intestinal parasites is commonly reported to be causing health problems in the world. Furthermore, global climate change is inevitable. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the health effects of climate change. Water shortage contribute to increase the pressure on regional water resources and force a greater number of people to use urban wastewater as an alternative for irrigation. Therefore, unsafe management and inappropriate wastewater use in urban agriculture is likely to be responsible of exacerbating the transmission of infectious diseases, including those caused by intestinal protozoa and helminths parasitic worms. It should be taken into account that waterborne diseases are influencedby climate change. The frequency and severity of intertwined extreme weather events driven by climate change are occurring worldwide and likely to cause epidemics of waterborne gastroenteritis. The association found between both rainfall, river flooding, and the majority of waterborne disease outbreaks was frequently proved to be preceded by climatic change events.

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