Increasing trends for the surface heat flux and fresh water flux in the North Pacific eastern subtropical region

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (10) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinsuke Iwasaki ◽  
Masahisa Kubota
2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 4223-4256
Author(s):  
G. Nikulin ◽  
A. Karpechko

Abstract. The development of wintertime ozone buildup over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and its connection with the mean meridional circulation in the stratosphere are examined statistically on a monthly basis from October to March (1980–2002). The ozone buildup begins locally in October with positive ozone tendencies over the North Pacific, which spread eastward and westward in November and finally cover all midlatitudes in December. During October–January a longitudinal distribution of the ozone tendencies mirrors a structure of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the lower stratosphere and has less similarity with this structure in February–March when chemistry begins to play a more important role. From November to March, zonal mean ozone tendencies (50°–60° N) show strong correlation (|r|=0.7) with different parameters used as proxies of the mean meridional circulation, namely: eddy heat flux, the vertical residual velocity (diabatically-derived) and temperature tendency. The correlation patterns between ozone tendency and the vertical residual velocity or temperature tendency are more homogeneous from month to month than ones for eddy heat flux. A partial exception is December when correlation is strong only for the vertical residual velocity. In October zonal mean ozone tendencies have no coupling with the proxies. However, positive tendencies averaged over the North Pacific correlate well, with all of them suggesting that intensification of northward ozone transport starts locally over the Pacific already in October. We show that the NH midlatitude ozone buildup has stable statistical relation with the mean meridional circulation in all months from October to March and half of the interannual variability in monthly ozone tendencies can be explained by applying different proxies of the mean meridional circulation.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
Douglas E. Miller ◽  
Zhuo Wang ◽  
Bo Li ◽  
Daniel S. Harnos ◽  
Trent Ford

AbstractSkillful subseasonal prediction of extreme heat and precipitation greatly benefits multiple sectors, including water management, public health, and agriculture, in mitigating the impact of extreme events. A statistical model is developed to predict the weekly frequency of extreme warm days and 14-day standardized precipitation index (SPI) during boreal summer in the United States (US). We use a leading principal component of US soil moisture and an index based on the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) as predictors. The model outperforms the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) at weeks 3-4 in the eastern US. It is found that the North Pacific SST anomalies persist several weeks and are associated with a persistent wave train pattern (WTZ500), which leads to increased occurrences of blocking and extreme temperature over the eastern US. Extreme dry soil moisture conditions persist into week 4 and are associated with an increase in sensible heat flux and decrease in latent heat flux, which may help maintain the overlying anticyclone. The clear sky conditions associated with blocking anticyclones further decrease soil moisture conditions and increase the frequency of extreme warm days. This skillful statistical model has the potential to aid in irrigation scheduling, crop planning, reservoir operation, and provide mitigation of impacts from extreme heat events.


Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Fen Wang ◽  
Yaokun Li ◽  
Jianping Li

The surface air temperature (SAT) interannual variability during the spring-to-summer transition over South China (SC) has been decomposed into two dominant modes by applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first EOF mode (EOF1) is characterized by homogenous SAT anomalies over SC, whereas the second EOF mode (EOF2) features a dipole SAT anomaly pattern with opposite anomalies south and north of the Yangtze River. A regression analysis of surface heat flux and advection anomalies on the normalized principle component time series corresponding to EOF1 suggests that surface heat flux anomalies can explain SAT anomalies mainly by modulating cloud-shortwave radiation. Negative cloud anomalies result in positive downward shortwave radiation anomalies through the positive shortwave cloud radiation effect, which favor warm SAT anomalies over most of SC. For EOF2, the distribution of advection anomalies resembles the north–south dipole pattern of SAT anomalies. This suggests that wind-induced advection plays an important role in the SAT anomalies of EOF2. Negative SAT anomalies are favored by cold advection from northerly wind anomalies over land surfaces in high-latitude regions. Positive SAT anomalies are induced by warm advection from southerly wind anomalies over the ocean in low-latitude regions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (17) ◽  
pp. 7503-7522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shineng Hu ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Wei Liu

AbstractThis study examines global patterns of net ocean surface heat flux changes (ΔQnet) under greenhouse warming in an ocean–atmosphere coupled model based on a heat budget decomposition. The regional structure of ΔQnet is primarily shaped by ocean heat divergence changes (ΔOHD): excessive heat is absorbed by higher-latitude oceans (mainly over the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean), transported equatorward, and stored in lower-latitude oceans with the rest being released to the tropical atmosphere. The overall global pattern of ΔOHD is primarily due to the circulation change and partially compensated by the passive advection effect, except for the Southern Ocean, which requires further investigations for a more definitive attribution. The mechanisms of North Atlantic surface heat uptake are further explored. In another set of global warming simulations, a perturbation of freshwater removal is imposed over the subpolar North Atlantic to largely offset the CO2-induced changes in the local ocean vertical stratification, barotropic gyre, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Results from the freshwater perturbation experiments suggest that a significant portion of the positive ΔQnet over the North Atlantic under greenhouse warming is caused by the Atlantic circulation changes, perhaps mainly by the slowdown of AMOC, while the passive advection effect can contribute to the regional variations of ΔQnet. Our results imply that ocean circulation changes are critical for shaping global warming pattern and thus hydrological cycle changes.


Radiocarbon ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 1367-1375 ◽  
Author(s):  
T Aramaki ◽  
S Nakaoka ◽  
Y Terao ◽  
S Kushibashi ◽  
T Kobayashi ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTSurface radiocarbon (Δ14C) in the North Pacific has been monitored using a commercial volunteer observation ship since the early 2000s. Here we report the temporal and spatial variations in Δ14C in the summer surface water when the surface ocean is vertically stratified over a 13-yr period, 2004–2016. The long-term Δ14C decreasing trend after the late 1970s in the subtropical region has continued to the present and the rate of decrease of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension, North Pacific and California current areas is calculated to be –3.3, –5.2 and –3.3 ‰/yr, respectively. After 2012 the Δ14C of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension area, however, has remained at an approximately constant value of around 50‰. The result may indicate that subtropical surface Δ14C in the western North Pacific has reached an equilibrium with atmospheric Δ14CO2. The Δ14C in the subarctic region is markedly lower than values in the subtropical region and it seems that the decreasing tendency of surface Δ14C has changed to an increasing tendency after 2010. The results may indicate that bomb-produced 14C, which has accumulated below the mixed layer in the past few decades, has been entrained into the surface layer by deep convection.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Xia Ju ◽  
Chao Ma ◽  
Xuejun Xiong ◽  
Yanliang Guo ◽  
Long Yu

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2092-2108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan T. Dawe ◽  
Lu Anne Thompson

Abstract Heat and temperature budget changes in a ⅓° model of the North Pacific driven by an idealized Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) atmospheric forcing are diagnosed to determine the roles of atmospheric heat flux and ocean dynamics in upper-ocean heat content and mixed layer temperature (MLT) changes. Changes in MLT and heat content during the transition between negative and positive PDOs are driven primarily by atmospheric heat fluxes, with contributions from ageostrophic advection and entrainment. Once the new PDO state is established, atmospheric heat flux in the central North Pacific works to mitigate the MLT change while vertical entrainment and ageostrophic advection act to enhance it. Upper-ocean heat content is affected in a similar matter, except that vertical processes are not important in the heat budget balance. At the same time, changes in wind stress curl cause the subtropical gyre to spin up and the subpolar gyre boundary to migrate southward. These circulation changes cause a large increase in the geostrophic advective heat flux in the Kuroshio region. This increase results in more heat flux to the atmosphere, demonstrating an active role for ocean dynamics in the upper-ocean heat budget. Eddy heat flux divergence along the Kuroshio Extension doubles after the transition, due to stronger eddy activity related to increased Kuroshio transport.


2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Yu ◽  
Xiujun Wang ◽  
Hang Fan ◽  
Rong-Hua Zhang

Abstract The North Pacific Ocean is a significant carbon sink region, but little is known about the dynamics of particulate organic carbon (POC) and the influences of physical and biological processes in this region at the basin scale. Here, we analysed high-resolution surface POC data derived from MODIS-Aqua during 2003–2017, together with satellite-derived sea surface chlorophyll and temperature (SST). There are large spatial and temporal variations in surface POC in the North Pacific. Surface POC is much lower in the subtropical region (<50 mg m−3) than in the subarctic region (>100 mg m−3), primarily resulting from the south-to-north variability in biological production. Our analyses show significant seasonal and interannual variability in surface POC. In particular, there is one peak in winter-spring in the western subtropical region and two peaks in late spring and fall in the western subarctic region. Surface POC is positively correlated with chlorophyll (r = ~1) and negatively correlated with SST (r = ~−0.45, P < 0.001) south of 45°N, indicating the strong influence of physically driven biological activity on the temporal variability of POC in the subtropical region. There is a significantly positive but relatively lower correlation coefficient (0.6–0.8) between POC and chlorophyll and an overall non-significantly positive correlation between POC and SST north of 45°N, reflecting the reduction in the POC standing stock due to the fast sinking of large particles. The climate modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation have large impacts on POC in various seasons in the subtropical region and weak influences in the subarctic region. Surface POC was anomalously high after 2013 (increased by ~15%) across the basin, which might be the result of complex interactions of physical and biological processes associated with an anomalous warming event (the Blob).


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