Subseasonal prediction of the state and evolution of the North Pacific jet stream

Abstract Previous studies employing empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of upper-tropospheric zonal wind anomalies have identified the leading modes of North Pacific jet (NPJ) variability that prevail on synoptic time scales. The first mode corresponds to a zonal extension or retraction of the exit region of the climatological NPJ, while the second mode corresponds to a poleward or equatorward shift of the exit region of the climatological NPJ. These NPJ regimes can strongly influence the character of the large-scale flow pattern over North America. Consequently, knowledge of the prevailing NPJ regime and the forecast skill associated with each NPJ regime can add considerable value to operational medium-range (6–10-day) forecasts over North America. This study documents the development of an NPJ phase diagram, which is constructed from the two leading EOFs of 250-hPa zonal wind anomalies during 1979–2014 excluding the summer months (June–August). The projection of 250-hPa zonal wind anomalies at one or multiple times onto the NPJ phase diagram provides an objective characterization of the state or evolution of the upper-tropospheric flow pattern over the North Pacific with respect to the two leading EOFs. A 30-yr analysis of GEFS reforecasts with respect to the NPJ phase diagram demonstrates that forecasts verified during jet retraction and equatorward shift regimes are associated with significantly larger average errors than jet extension and poleward shift regimes. An examination of the best and worst forecasts further suggests that periods characterized by rapid NPJ regime transition and the development and maintenance of North Pacific blocking events exhibit reduced forecast skill.

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Development and Maintenance Mechanism for the Semiannual Oscillation of the North Pacific Upper-Level Circulation

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00418.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 27 (10) ◽

pp. 3767-3783 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Tsing-Chang Chen ◽

Jenq-Dar Tsay

Keyword(s):

North Pacific ◽

Function Analysis ◽

Dynamic Processes ◽

Jet Stream ◽

The North ◽

Transient Activity ◽

Vorticity Flux ◽

The North Pacific ◽

Maximum Minimum ◽

Semiannual Oscillation

Abstract The north–south semiannual oscillation (SAO) of the North Pacific jet stream, part of the atmospheric SAO in the Northern Hemisphere, can be well depicted by the semiannual component of the monthly-mean eddy streamfunction. Expressed by the semiannual eddy streamfunction budget, the dynamic processes develop and maintain the SAO, including the adjustment between vorticity advection and convergence of vorticity flux of the monthly-mean mode and the convergence of transient vorticity flux. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of these dynamic processes shows an east–west elongated cyclonic (anticyclonic) cell of the semiannual eddy streamfunction anomaly, which appears in January and July (October and April) south of the Siberia–Alaska landmass. The maximum (minimum) adjustment processes by the monthly-mean mode and the maximum (minimum) feedback impact of transient activity on the SAO occur in December and June (September and March), a month ahead of the maximum (minimum) north–south SAO of the North Pacific jet stream. Because vorticity is supplied by the convergence of vorticity flux associated with divergent flow, the SAO for the rotational flow is established by diabatic heat and heat transport through the divergent circulation over the North Pacific Ocean, and by precipitation maintained by convergence of water vapor flux along the oceanic storm track. Additionally, the feedback impact of the modulated transient activity affects the SAO development of the atmospheric rotational and divergent circulations, and the hydrological cycle.

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Hawaiian Regional Climate Variability during Two Types of El Niño

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0985.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (22) ◽

pp. 9929-9943

Author(s):

Bo-Yi Lu ◽

Pao-Shin Chu ◽

Sung-Hun Kim ◽

Christina Karamperidou

Keyword(s):

El Niño ◽

North Pacific ◽

El Nino ◽

Moisture Flux ◽

Jet Stream ◽

Flux Divergence ◽

The North ◽

The Impact ◽

The North Pacific ◽

Moisture Flux Divergence

AbstractThe large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Pacific associated with two types of El Niño—the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP)—is studied in relation to Hawaiian winter (December–February) rainfall and temperature. The eastern and central equatorial Pacific undergo active convective heating during EP El Niño winters. The local Hadley circulation is enhanced and an upper-level westerly jet stream of the North Pacific is elongated eastward. Due to the impact of both phenomena, stronger anomalous descending motion, moisture flux divergence anomalies near Hawaii, and reduction of easterly trade winds, which are characteristic of EP winters, are unfavorable for winter rainfall in Hawaii. As a result of this robust signal, dry conditions prevail in Hawaii and the standard deviation of rainfall during EP winters is smaller than the climatology. For CP winters, the maximum equatorial ocean warming is weaker and shifted westward to near the date line. The subtropical jet stream retreats westward relative to EP winters and the anomalously sinking motion near Hawaii is variable and generally weaker. Although the anomalous moisture flux divergence still exists over the subtropical North Pacific, its magnitude is weaker relative to EP winters. Without strong external forcing, rainfall in the Hawaiian Islands during CP winters is close to the long-term mean. The spread of rainfall from one CP event to another is also larger. The near-surface minimum temperature from three stations in Hawaii reveals cooling during EP winters and slight warming during CP winters.

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