The growth rate and distribution of atmospheric methane

1994 ◽  
Vol 99 (D8) ◽  
pp. 17021 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. Dlugokencky ◽  
L. P. Steele ◽  
P. M. Lang ◽  
K. A. Masarie
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Methane

scholarly journals Limited impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on variability and growth rate of atmospheric methane

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (21) ◽  
pp. 6371-6386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hinrich Schaefer ◽  
Dan Smale ◽  
Sylvia E. Nichol ◽  
Tony M. Bromley ◽  
Gordon W. Brailsford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Ch4 Production ◽  
A Minor

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been suggested as a strong forcing in the methane cycle and as a driver of recent trends in global atmospheric methane mole fractions [CH4]. Such a sensitivity of the global CH4 budget to climate events would have important repercussions for climate change mitigation strategies and the accuracy of projections for future greenhouse forcing. Here, we test the impact of ENSO on atmospheric CH4 in a correlation analysis. We use local and global records of [CH4], as well as stable carbon isotopic records of atmospheric CH4 (δ13CH4), which are particularly sensitive to the combined ENSO effects on CH4 production from wetlands and biomass burning. We use a variety of nominal, smoothed, and detrended time series including growth rate records. We find that at most 36 % of the variability in [CH4] and δ13CH4 is attributable to ENSO, but only for detrended records in the southern tropics. Trend-bearing records from the southern tropics, as well as all studied hemispheric and global records, show a minor impact of ENSO, i.e. < 24 % of variability explained. Additional analyses using hydrogen cyanide (HCN) records show a detectable ENSO influence on biomass burning (up to 51 %–55 %), suggesting that it is wetland CH4 production that responds less to ENSO than previously suggested. Dynamics of the removal by hydroxyl likely counteract the variation in emissions, but the expected isotope signal is not evident. It is possible that other processes obscure the ENSO signal, which itself indicates a minor influence of the latter on global CH4 emissions. Trends like the recent rise in atmospheric [CH4] can therefore not be attributed to ENSO. This leaves anthropogenic methane sources as the likely driver, which must be mitigated to reduce anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals The 1991-1992 atmospheric methane anomaly: Southern hemisphere13C decrease and growth rate fluctuations

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 (8) ◽  
pp. 857-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Lowe ◽  
Martin R. Manning ◽  
G. W. Brailsford ◽  
A. M. Bromley
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Methane

scholarly journals Attribution of recent increases in atmospheric methane through 3-D inverse modelling

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe McNorton ◽  
Chris Wilson ◽  
Manuel Gloor ◽  
Rob Parker ◽  
Hartmut Boesch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Source And Sink

Abstract. The atmospheric methane (CH4) growth rate has varied considerably in recent decades. Unexplained renewed growth after 2006 followed seven years of stagnation and coincided with an isotopic trend toward CH4 more depleted in 13C, suggesting changes in sources and/or sinks. Using surface observations of both CH4 and the isotopologue ratio value (δ13CH4) to constrain a global 3D chemical transport model (CTM), we have performed a synthesis inversion for source and sink attribution. Our method extends on previous studies by providing monthly and regional attribution of emissions from 6 different sectors and changes in atmospheric sinks for the extended 2003–2015 period. Regional evaluation of the model CH4 tracer with independent column observations from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) shows improved performance when using posterior fluxes (R = 0.94–0.96, RMSE = 8.3–16.5 ppb), relative to prior fluxes (R = 0.60–0.92, RMSE = 48.6–64.6 ppb). Further independent validation with data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) shows a similar improvement in the posterior fluxes (R = 0.90, RMSE = 21.4 ppb) compared to the prior (R = 0.71, RMSE = 55.3 ppb). Based on these improved posterior fluxes, the inversion results suggest the most likely cause of the renewed methane growth is a post-2006 1.8 ± 0.4 % decrease in mean OH, a 12.9 ± 2.7 % increase in energy sector emissions, mainly from Africa/Middle East and Southern Asia/Oceania, and a 2.6 ± 1.8 % increase in wetland emissions, mainly from Northern Eurasia. The posterior wetland increases are in general agreement with bottom-up estimates, but the energy sector growth is greater than estimated by bottom-up methods. The model results are consistent across a range of sensitivity analyses performed. When forced to assume a constant (annually repeating) OH distribution, the inversion requires a greater increase in energy sector (13.6 ± 2.7 %) and wetland (3.6 ± 1.8 %) emissions but also introduces an 11.5 ± 3.8 % decrease in biomass burning emissions. Assuming no prior trend in sources and sinks slightly reduces the posterior growth rate in energy sector and wetland emissions and further increases the amplitude of the negative OH trend. We find that possible tropospheric Cl variations do not to influence δ13CH4 and CH4 trends, although we suggest further work on Cl variability is required to fully diagnose this contribution. While the study provides quantitative insight into possible emissions variations which may explain the observed trends, uncertainty in prior source and sink estimates and a paucity of δ13CH4 observations limit the accuracy of the posterior estimates.

Reply to “Comments on ‘A dramatic decrease in the growth rate of atmospheric methane in the northern hemisphere during 1992'”

1994 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 2447-2448 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. Dlugokencky ◽  
K. A. Masarie ◽  
P. M. Lang ◽  
P. P. Tans ◽  
L. P. Steele ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Dramatic Decrease

scholarly journals An analysis of atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations from 1984 to 2008 with a single box atmospheric chemistry model

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 30259-30282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Tan ◽  
Q. Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Methane Flux ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Oxidizing Power ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. We present a single box atmospheric chemistry model involving atmospheric methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO) and radical hydroxyl (OH) to analyze atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 1984 to 2008. When OH is allowed to vary, the modeled CH4 is 20 ppb higher than observations from the NOAA/ESRL and AGAGE networks for the end of 2008. However, when the OH concentration is held constant at 106 molecule cm−3, the simulated CH4 shows a trend approximately equal to observations. Both simulations show a clear slowdown in the CH4 growth rate during recent decades, from about 13 ppb yr−1 in 1984 to less than 5 ppb yr−1 in 2003. Furthermore, if the constant OH assumption is credible, we think that this slowdown is mainly due to a pause in the growth of wetland methane emissions. In simulations run for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres separately, we find that the Northern Hemisphere is more sensitive to wetland emissions, whereas the southern tends to be more perturbed by CH4 transportation, dramatic OH change, and biomass burning. When measured CO values from NOAA/ESRL are used to drive the model, changes in the CH4 growth rate become more consistent with observations, but the long-term increase in CH4 is underestimated. This shows that CO is a good indicator of short-term variations in oxidizing power in the atmosphere. The simulation results also indicate the significant drop in OH concentrations in 1998 (about 5% lower than the previous year) was probably due to an abrupt increase in wetland methane emissions during an intense EI Niño event. Using a fixed-lag Kalman smoother, we estimate the mean wetland methane flux is about 128 Tg yr−1 through the period 1984–2008. This study demonstrates the effectiveness in examining the role of OH and CO in affecting CH4.

scholarly journals COVID-19 lockdown NO<sub>x</sub> emission reductions can explain most of the coincident increase in global atmospheric methane

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Stevenson ◽  
Richard Derwent ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
William Collins
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Chemical System ◽  
Nox Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Great Utility ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Global Growth

Abstract. Compared to 2019, the global growth rate of atmospheric methane rose by about 50 % in 2020, reaching 15 ppb/yr. Models of global atmospheric chemistry show that reductions in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions reduce levels of the hydroxyl radical, and lengthen the methane lifetime. Using estimates of NOx emission reductions associated with COVID-19 lockdowns around the world in 2020, together with model-derived regional and sectoral sensitivities of methane to NOx emissions, we find that NOx emissions reductions can fully explain the observed surge in the global methane growth rate. Whilst changes in NOx emissions are probably not the only important factor that has influenced methane since the beginning of 2020, it is clear that they are a key factor that will need to be included within any attribution study, and that they may well be the dominant driver of these recent methane changes. The major global scale changes in composition of the Earth’s atmosphere measured during lockdown provide unprecedented constraints on the sensitivity of the atmospheric chemical system to changes in emissions, and are of great utility for evaluating policy-relevant models.

scholarly journals Accelerating methane growth rate from 2010 to 2017: leading contributions from the tropics and East Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Yin ◽  
Frederic Chevallier ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Philippe Bousquet ◽  
Marielle Saunois ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Carbon Monoxide ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Sources And Sinks ◽  
Ch4 Emissions ◽  
Significant Acceleration ◽  
Oxidation Chain ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. After stagnating in the early 2000s, the atmospheric methane growth rate has been positive since 2007 with a significant acceleration starting in 2014. While causes for previous growth rate variations are still not well determined, this recent increase can be studied with dense surface and satellite observations. Here, we use an ensemble of six multi-tracer atmospheric inversions that have the capacity to assimilate the major tracers in the methane oxidation chain – namely methane, formaldehyde, and carbon monoxide – to simultaneously optimize both the methane sources and sinks at each model grid. We show that the recent surge of the atmospheric growth rate between 2010–2013 and 2014–2017 is most likely explained by an increase of global CH4 emissions by 17.5 ± 1.5 Tg yr−1 (mean ± 1σ), while variations in CH4 sinks remained small. The inferred emission increase is consistently supported by both surface and satellite observations, with leading contributions from the tropics wetlands (~ 35 %) and anthropogenic emissions in China (~ 20 %). Such a high consecutive atmospheric growth rate has not been observed since the 1980s and corresponds to unprecedented global total CH4 emissions.

The impact of meteorology on the interannual growth rate of atmospheric methane

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (20) ◽  
pp. 8-1-8-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. J. Warwick ◽  
S. Bekki ◽  
K. S. Law ◽  
E. G. Nisbet ◽  
J. A. Pyle
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Role of OH variability in the stalling of the global atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> growth rate from 1999 to 2006

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 7943-7956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe McNorton ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Manuel Gloor ◽  
Chris Wilson ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Stagnation Period ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. The growth in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations over the past 2 decades has shown large variability on a timescale of several years. Prior to 1999 the globally averaged CH4 concentration was increasing at a rate of 6.0 ppb yr−1, but during a stagnation period from 1999 to 2006 this growth rate slowed to 0.6 ppb yr−1. From 2007 to 2009 the growth rate again increased to 4.9 ppb yr−1. These changes in growth rate are usually ascribed to variations in CH4 emissions. We have used a 3-D global chemical transport model, driven by meteorological reanalyses and variations in global mean hydroxyl (OH) concentrations derived from CH3CCl3 observations from two independent networks, to investigate these CH4 growth variations. The model shows that between 1999 and 2006 changes in the CH4 atmospheric loss contributed significantly to the suppression in global CH4 concentrations relative to the pre-1999 trend. The largest factor in this is relatively small variations in global mean OH on a timescale of a few years, with minor contributions of atmospheric transport of CH4 to its sink region and of atmospheric temperature. Although changes in emissions may be important during the stagnation period, these results imply a smaller variation is required to explain the observed CH4 trends. The contribution of OH variations to the renewed CH4 growth after 2007 cannot be determined with data currently available.

scholarly journals Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 094013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Poulter ◽  
Philippe Bousquet ◽  
Josep G Canadell ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Anna Peregon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Methane
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