COVID-19 lockdown NO<sub>x</sub> emission reductions can explain most of the coincident increase in global atmospheric methane
Abstract. Compared to 2019, the global growth rate of atmospheric methane rose by about 50 % in 2020, reaching 15 ppb/yr. Models of global atmospheric chemistry show that reductions in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions reduce levels of the hydroxyl radical, and lengthen the methane lifetime. Using estimates of NOx emission reductions associated with COVID-19 lockdowns around the world in 2020, together with model-derived regional and sectoral sensitivities of methane to NOx emissions, we find that NOx emissions reductions can fully explain the observed surge in the global methane growth rate. Whilst changes in NOx emissions are probably not the only important factor that has influenced methane since the beginning of 2020, it is clear that they are a key factor that will need to be included within any attribution study, and that they may well be the dominant driver of these recent methane changes. The major global scale changes in composition of the Earth’s atmosphere measured during lockdown provide unprecedented constraints on the sensitivity of the atmospheric chemical system to changes in emissions, and are of great utility for evaluating policy-relevant models.