Utility and variability: A description of preference in the uncertain outcome choice situation.

1969 ◽  
Vol 79 (2, Pt.1) ◽  
pp. 249-253
Author(s):  
Joseph Halpern ◽  
Madison Dengler
Keyword(s):  
Choice Situation ◽  
Uncertain Outcome

scholarly journals Frege’s puzzle and the ex ante Pareto principle

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Mahtani
Keyword(s):  
Policy Choice ◽  
Choice Situation ◽  
Pareto Principle ◽  
Social Situations ◽  
Central Importance ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Rational Behaviour ◽  
Fixed Population

Abstract The ex ante Pareto principle has an intuitive pull, and it has been a principle of central importance since Harsanyi’s defence of utilitarianism (to be found in e.g. Harsanyi, Rational behaviour and bargaining equilibrium in games and social situations. CUP, Cambridge, 1977). The principle has been used to criticize and refine a range of positions in welfare economics, including egalitarianism and prioritarianism. But this principle faces a serious problem. I have argued elsewhere (Mahtani, J Philos 114(6):303-323 2017) that the concept of ex ante Pareto superiority is not well defined, because its application in a choice situation concerning a fixed population can depend on how the members of that population are designated. I show in this paper that in almost all cases of policy choice, there will be numerous sets of rival designators for the same fixed population. I explore two ways that we might complete the definition of ex ante Pareto superiority. I call these the ‘supervaluationist’ reading and the ‘subvaluationist’ reading. I reject the subvaluationist reading as uncharitable, and argue that the supervaluationist reading is the most promising interpretation of the ex ante Pareto principle. I end by exploring some of the implications of this principle for prioritarianism and egalitarianism.

scholarly journals Researchers’ perceptions of malaria eradication: findings from a mixed-methods analysis of a large online survey

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Brew ◽  
Menno Pradhan ◽  
Jacqueline Broerse ◽  
Quique Bassat
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Free Form ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Specific Investments ◽  
Uncertain Outcome ◽  
Malaria Eradication ◽  
Global Eradication

Abstract Background The value of malaria eradication, the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of malaria infection caused by human malaria parasites, would be enormous. However, the expected value of an investment in an intended, but uncertain, outcome hinges on the probability of, and time until, its fulfilment. Though the long-term benefits of global malaria eradication promise to be large, the upfront costs and uncertainty regarding feasibility and timeframe make it difficult for policymakers and researchers to forecast the return on investment. Methods A large online survey of 844 peer-reviewed malaria researchers of different scientific backgrounds administered in order to estimate the probability and time frame of eradication. Adjustments were made for potential selection bias, and thematic analysis of free text comments was carried out. Results The average perceived likelihood of global eradication among malaria researchers approximates the number of years into the future: approximately 10% of researchers believe that eradication will occur in the next 10 years, 30% believe it will occur in the next 30 years, and half believe eradication will require 50 years or more. Researchers who gave free form comments highlighted systemic challenges and the need for innovation as chief among obstacles to achieving global malaria eradication. Conclusions The findings highlight the difficulty and complexity of malaria eradication, and can be used in prospective cost–benefit analyses to inform stakeholders regarding the likely return on eradication-specific investments.

Perception of Risk as Related to Choice in a Two-Dimensional Risk Situation

1978 ◽  
Vol 43 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1059-1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
John W. Dickson
Keyword(s):  
Risky Choice ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Choice Situation ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Objective Risk ◽  
Subjective Risk ◽  
Risk Situation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Two Alternatives

A risky choice was created by manipulating two dimensions of risk for 21 managers attending a conference. The first dimension varied risk by altering the difference in expected value between two alternatives of widely differing variance. The second dimension varied the expectancy of achieving a particular outcome. Whereas choice was significantly related to both dimensions of risk, it was not significantly related to estimates of the subjective risk inherent in the choice situation. It appears that subjective risk does not mediate between objective risk and choice.

scholarly journals Behavioral and EEG reactions in primary school-aged children to emotionally colored verbal stimuli with the condition of their own or forced choice

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 72-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.A. Aiusheeva ◽  
A.E. Saprygin ◽  
A.N. Savostyanov ◽  
V.V. Stеpanova
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
Positive Emotions ◽  
Alpha Rhythm ◽  
Spectral Power ◽  
Forced Choice ◽  
Choice Situation ◽  
Verbal Stimuli ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Theta Range

The aim of the study is to compare behavioral and EEG reactions of primary school-aged children during the recognition of syntactic errors in emotionally (positively or negatively) colored sentences that appeal to the choice of the child differently. 20 children (mean age 9,0±0,3 years, 12 boys, 8 girls) were examined. We found out that the children with a high quality of solving a linguistic task concentrate all their attention on finding an error in the sentences, and children with a low quality of solving a task demonstrate increased emotionality, possibly connected with their unsuccessfulness. The strongest EEG reactions in the ranges of alpha- and theta- rhythms were recorded in children with slow speed and bad quality of the solution of the task. The recognition of sentences with negative emotions took longer than sentences with positive emotions. The increase of emotions (synchronization in theta range) during the recognition of negative sentences was provoked by the expectation of failure and “identification” with it. The children found the mistake better in the sentences with their own choice than in the sentences that describes the forced-choice situation. Desynchronization (i.e. decrease in the spectral power) and synchronization (i.e. increase in spectral power) was detected on the EEG in the alpha-rhythm range. Desynchronization was associated with the recognition of sentences describing the children’s own choice; synchronization was recorded when recognizing sentences describing the forced-choice situation.

Russia: facing west or east

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jude Woodward
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
East Asia ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
The West ◽  
Uncertain Outcome ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The Us ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Post War

This chapter reviews US-China-Russia relations in the post-war period, and considers how recent developments affect prospects for the US ‘pivot’. It explains why those driving US foreign policy towards China see the confrontation with Russia in Ukraine as a dangerous and diversionary adventure, leading to Sino-Russian convergence, distracting US attention from East Asia and undermining confidence among the US’s Asian allies of its commitment to the region. It is argued that if the US is to maintain primacy in the 21st century, it must subordinate other foreign policy goals to the paramount objective of containing China’s rise. The US’s failure to do this, instead pitting itself against both Putin in the West and China in the East, means it has driven Russia and China together, quite possibly sacrificing its vital need to contain China for a lesser goal of uncertain outcome in Ukraine.

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