EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE IN GROWTH ACCOUNTING AND LABOUR MARKET DECOMPOSITIONS

Impact of demographic structure on labor market and macroeconomic aggregates might be pronounced in some countries. Despite this fact, only a handful of approaches dealing with quantifications such effects have been derived so far. The aim of this paper is therefore to fill this methodological gap and to introduce methodological approaches for capturing changes in demographic structure, with many applications in growth accounting and labor market decompositions. Firstly, a novel additive decomposition will be presented, as an alternative to traditional models using fixed population weights. This will be followed by the presentation of a multiplicative decomposition, which can be applied to all kinds of growth accounting exercises based on multiplicative identities.

Predictive Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic in India Based on SIR-F Model

Impact of COVID-19 has been devastating worldwide, it has disrupted lives of people, economy has fallen and millions of people have lost their jobs. Second peak of COVID-19 is making it even worse for many developing countries. In India, the second peak is reaching nearly 4 times the cases that were reported during the first peak, thus making it a challenge for the government to plan for the future without affecting the economy further. According to WHO, millions of enterprises are at existential threat, nearly half of the global workforce is at risk of losing their jobs and the entire food chain has been disrupted. In order to provide some assistance to the situation, this study aims to use the SIR-F Model, which is a variation of the SIR model. W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick in 1927, proposed the model in which they classified a fixed population into three compartments: S(t), susceptible; I(t), Infected; R(t), Recovered. We have used the SIR-F model which differentiates between Recovered (meaning people infected and later recovered and thus now immune) and Fatality. We have simulated two scenarios including one in which we study the impact of medicine on future cases and also inspected various parameters which shed light on reasons behind increasing and decreasing the number of covid cases in India. In the future, this work can be extended further to develop a completely new model to consider those cases in which people have recovered but are still at a risk of reinfection.

Identifying urban areas: A new approach and comparison of national urban metrics with gridded population data

The measurement of urbanization and other key urban indicators depends on how urban areas are defined. The Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) has been recently adopted to support international statistical comparability, but its rigid criteria for classify areas as urban/non-urban based upon fixed population size and density criteria is controversial. Here we present an alternative approach to urban classification, using a flexible range of population density \& count thresholds. We then compare how these thresholds affect estimation of urbanization and urban settlement counts across three of the most popular gridded population datasets (GPD). Instead of introducing further uncertainties by matching GPD to built-up area datasets, we classify urban areas in a purely spatial demographic way. By calculating national urban shares and urban area counts, we highlight the often overlooked uncertainties when using GPD. We find that the choice of GPD is generally the dominant factor in altering both of these urban indicators but the choice of urban criteria is also important. Overall, this alternative urban classification method offers a more flexible approach to human settlements classification that can be applied globally for comparative research.

Effects of Demographic Structure in Labour Market Decompositions

Impact of demographic structure on labor market and macroeconomic aggregates might be pronounced in some countries. Despite this fact, only a handful of approaches dealing with quantifications such effects have been derived so far. The aim of this paper is therefore to fill this methodological gap and to introduce methodological approaches for capturing changes in demographic structure, with many applications in growth accounting and labor market decompositions. Firstly, a novel additive decomposition will be presented, as an alternative to traditional models using fixed population weights. This will be followed by the presentation of a multiplicative decomposition, which can be applied to all kinds of growth accounting exercises based on multiplicative identities.JEL classificationJ11; C02

Employee satisfaction with the built environment of a software development company

Purpose The raised competitiveness among technology companies, especially for being able to work with markets physically distant from their final consumer, makes it important to know the employee’s perception about the built environment since the physical workspaces influence productivity. This paper aims to analyze the attributes and dimensions of the built environment of a development software company that most impact the employee’s satisfaction through their perception. It allows the company to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the built environment, enhancing the employee’s satisfaction, productivity and, consequently, the company revenues. Design/methodology/approach This research applied a survey by the drop off method and analyzed data through confirmatory factor analysis and multiple linear regression. Therefore, these methods explain how the attributes behave in each theoretical dimension and evaluate the relation between the dependent and independent dimensions. Findings The theoretical result of this research concerns the employee’s satisfaction with the built environment of a software development company. Overall, employee satisfaction is related to the dimensions of functionality, appearance and personal relationships, not being significant aspects of configuration. On the other hand, the employee’s overall satisfaction with the built environment is related to the functional dimension. Research limitations/implications This research limitation is related to the size of the sample, which is a pre-determined and fixed population: all the company’s employees. Originality/value Perceived quality applied to a work environment of a software development company.

Frege’s puzzle and the ex ante Pareto principle

The ex ante Pareto principle has an intuitive pull, and it has been a principle of central importance since Harsanyi’s defence of utilitarianism (to be found in e.g. Harsanyi, Rational behaviour and bargaining equilibrium in games and social situations. CUP, Cambridge, 1977). The principle has been used to criticize and refine a range of positions in welfare economics, including egalitarianism and prioritarianism. But this principle faces a serious problem. I have argued elsewhere (Mahtani, J Philos 114(6):303-323 2017) that the concept of ex ante Pareto superiority is not well defined, because its application in a choice situation concerning a fixed population can depend on how the members of that population are designated. I show in this paper that in almost all cases of policy choice, there will be numerous sets of rival designators for the same fixed population. I explore two ways that we might complete the definition of ex ante Pareto superiority. I call these the ‘supervaluationist’ reading and the ‘subvaluationist’ reading. I reject the subvaluationist reading as uncharitable, and argue that the supervaluationist reading is the most promising interpretation of the ex ante Pareto principle. I end by exploring some of the implications of this principle for prioritarianism and egalitarianism.

Analysis of the species composition of microorganisms in dogs with otomycosis

Otitis in dogs is a common inflammatory disease that is often complicated by secondary bacterial or yeast infections. In patients with chronic otitis externa, the disease is often caused by various combinations of factors. The object of the study was 237 sick dogs with clinical signs of otitis externa, of various age, sex and breed and a fixed population. Samples of the separated external auditory canal of sick dogs were used as material for mycological and bacteriological research. Material was sown on the surface of elective media. Microorganisms were isolated both in monoculture and bacterial-fungal associations. No microorganisms were detected in 14.7% of the samples. Yeast-like fungi - in 19.4% of the samples, bacteria - in 21.5%/ In the etiology of otitis associations of Malassezia and bacteria were established in 44.3% of the samples. As for species composition of fungi of the genus Malassezia, M. pachydermatis accounted for 72.4% and M. furfur - in 27.6% of samples. When analyzing the generic and species diversity of microorganisms, the most frequently recorded were coccal forms (87,0%), less frequently - enterobacteria, non-fermenting bacteria, streptococci, enterococci and corynebacteria. The results obtained can be used to develop effective tools of treatment for dogs with otitis externa.

Research Frontiers

This chapter discusses how the SWF framework can be generalized to accommodate variable-population cases and differentiated individual responsibility. The framework, as presented in earlier chapters, assumes a fixed-population setup (the very same individuals exist in all outcomes). Conversely, a variable-population setup allows for individuals who exist in some outcomes but not others. Extending the SWF framework to this case means grappling with the philosophical literature on population ethics—specifically, grappling with the ethical significance of non-identity and deciding how to make ethical comparisons between outcomes with different total population sizes. Earlier chapters also focus solely on the pattern of well-being in outcomes—ignoring that two individuals who are at the same well-being level may be differentially responsible for their condition and thus have unequal ethical claims to a well-being improvement. The economic literature on equality of opportunity (EOp) provides a structure for generalizing the SWF framework to reflect differentiated responsibility.

External Validity in a Stochastic World: Evidence from Low-Income Countries

We examine empirically the generalizability of internally valid micro-estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. Using panel data, we show that the returns to investments in agriculture in India and Ghana, small and medium non-farm enterprises in Sri Lanka, and schooling in Indonesia fluctuate significantly across time periods. We show how the returns to these investments interact with specific, measurable, and economically relevant aggregate shocks, focusing on rainfall and price fluctuations. We also obtain lower-bound estimates of confidence intervals of the returns based on estimates of the parameters of the distributions of rainfall shocks in our two agricultural samples. We find that even these lower-bound confidence intervals are substantially wider than those based solely on sampling error that are commonly provided in studies, most of which are based on single-year samples. We also find that cross-sectional variation in rainfall cannot be confidently used to replicate within-population rainfall variability. Based on our findings, we discuss methods for incorporating information on external shocks into evaluations of the returns to policy.