Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain

Forests provide important ecosystem services but are being affected by climate change, not only changes in temperature and precipitation but potentially also directly through the plant-physiological effects of increases in atmospheric CO2. We applied a tree-species-based dynamic model (LPJ-GUESS) at a high 5-km spatial resolution to project climate and CO2 impacts on tree species and thus forests in Great Britain. Climatic inputs consisted of a novel large climate scenario ensemble derived from a regional climate model (RCM) under an RCP 8.5 emission scenario. The climate change impacts were assessed using leaf area index (LAI) and net primary productivity (NPP) for the 2030s and the 2080s compared to baseline (1975–2004). The potential CO2 effects, which are highly uncertain, were examined using a constant CO2 level scenario for comparison. Also, a climate vulnerability index was developed to assess the potential drought impact on modeled tree species. In spite of substantial future reductions in rainfall, the mean projected LAI and NPP generally showed an increase over Britain, with a larger increment in Scotland, northwest England, and west Wales. The CO2 increase led to higher projected LAI and NPP, especially in northern Britain, but with little effect on overall geographical patterns. However, without accounting for plant-physiological effects of elevated CO2, NPP in Southern and Central Britain and easternmost parts of Wales showed a decrease relative to 2011, implying less ecosystem service provisioning, e.g., in terms of timber yields and carbon storage. The projected change of LAI and NPP varied from 5 to 100% of the mean change, due to the uncertainty arising from natural weather-induced variability, with Southeast England being most sensitive to this. It was also the most susceptible to climate change and drought, with reduced suitability for broad-leaved trees such as beech, small-leaved lime, and hornbeam. These could lead to important changes in woodland composition across Great Britain.

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Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr00911 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 45 ◽

pp. 151-162 ◽

Cited By ~ 75

Author(s):

AV Gallego-Sala ◽

JM Clark ◽

JI House ◽

HG Orr ◽

IC Prentice ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Great Britain ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Bioclimatic Envelope Model ◽

Envelope Model ◽

Bioclimatic Envelope

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Identifying Challenging Barriers to Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case of Leribe District, Lesotho

International Journal Of Scientific Advances ◽

10.51542/ijscia.v2i3.4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Tsepang Clementine Mofolo ◽

Kheleli Mareabetsoe Rethabile

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Security Policy ◽

Arable Land ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Water Shortages ◽

Face To Face ◽

Global Issue ◽

Food Shortages

Climate change has become a global issue that most if not all countries around the world are tackling. Its impacts cut across different sectors, but for less developed countries like Lesotho, agriculture is a sector that is being affected the most. Lesotho depends on rainfed agriculture, mostly for subsistence and in part for commercial purposes as a source of income. Research in Lesotho has focused more on the implications of climate change on environmental processes, and less attention has been directed towards farmers as producers of food in an industry that provides livelihood to over 70% of its population. The first approach this article takes is to identify the intent and decision of farmers to adapt to climate change and the barriers that affect these decisions are explored. In identifying challenging barriers to farmers’ adaptation to climate change adaptation, the study was carried out in Leribe district, one of the 10 districts in Lesotho because it is known as the food basket of the country because of its high potential arable land. 138 farmers were purposively sampled to carry out the research, which was conducted using questionnaires administered through face-to-face interviews. From the study, perceptions of farmers that rainfall intensity, duration and frequency has decreased, and that temperatures have become extremely high were recorded. This, according to farmers, had led to impacts of water shortages, increase in frequency of droughts among other impacts. Farmers have adopted measures to minimize these impacts. The intention of farmers to adapt to climate change amidst the impacts exists amongst farmers. The study therefore aims of the study is to identify the potentially challenging barriers to farmers’ adaptation to climate change in Leribe. The conclusions drawn from the study are that in the sense of climate change impacts, agricultural productivity reduced, and seasonal food shortages prevailed. Lesotho’s capacity to grow its own food has dwindled dramatically. The food security policy must lay out plans to boost food production, and there must be cross-sector partnerships to provide necessary assistance for the lowest and most vulnerable farmers at both district and national levels.

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Assessment of climate change impacts in a semi-arid watershed in Iran using regional climate models

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2014.076 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 161-180 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Hamid R. Solaymani ◽

A. K. Gosain

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Water Yield ◽

Climate Data ◽

Water Shortages ◽

Semi Arid

This paper aims to summarize in detail the results of the climate models under various scenarios by temporal and spatial analysis in the semi-arid Karkheh Basin (KB) in Iran, which is likely to experience water shortages. The PRECIS and REMO models, under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, have been chosen as regional climate models (RCMs). These regional climate models indicate an overall warming in future in KB under various scenarios. The increase in temperature in the dry months (June, July and August) is greater than the increase in the wet months (January, February, March and April). In order to perform climate change impact assessment on water resources, the Arc-SWAT 9.3 model was used in the study area. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model results have been obtained using present and future climate data. There is an overall reduction in the water yield (WYLD) over the whole of the KB. The deficit of WYLD is considerable over the months of April to September throughout KB due to the increase in average temperature and decrease in precipitation under various emission scenarios. Statistical properties in box-and-whisker plots have been used to gain further understanding relevant to uncertainty analysis in climate change impacts. Evaluation of uncertainty has shown the highest uncertain condition under B2.

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Future projections of temperature-related climate change impacts on the railway network of Great Britain

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-013-0810-8 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 120 (1-2) ◽

pp. 71-93 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Erika J. Palin ◽

Hazel E. Thornton ◽

Camilla T. Mathison ◽

Rachel E. McCarthy ◽

Robin T. Clark ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Great Britain ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Railway Network ◽

Future Projections

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A large-sample investigation into uncertain climate change impacts on high flows across Great Britain

10.5194/hess-2021-321 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rosanna Lane ◽

Gemma Coxon ◽

Jim Freer ◽

Jan Seibert ◽

Thorsten Wagener

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Great Britain ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Hydrological Modelling ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Annual Maximum ◽

Parameter Uncertainties ◽

High Flows ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Climate change may significantly increase flood risk across Great Britain (GB), but there are large uncertainties in both future climatic changes and how these propagate into changing river flows. Here, the impact of climate change on the magnitude and frequency of high flows is modelled for 346 larger (> 144 km2) catchments across GB using the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and the DECIPHeR hydrological modelling framework. This study provides the first spatially consistent GB projections including both climate ensembles and hydrological model parameter uncertainties. Generally, results indicated an increase in the magnitude and frequency of high flows (Q10, Q1 and annual maximum) along the west coast of GB in the future (2050–2075), with increases in annual maximum flows of up to 65 % for west Scotland. In contrast, median flows (Q50) were projected to decrease across GB. All flow projections contained large uncertainties, and while the RCMs were the largest source of uncertainty overall, hydrological modelling uncertainties were considerable in east and south-east England. Regional variation in flow projections were found to relate to i) differences in climatic change and ii) catchment conditions during the baseline period as characterised by the runoff coefficient (mean discharge divided by mean precipitation). Importantly, increased heavy-precipitation events (defined by an increase in 99th percentile precipitation) did not always result in increased flood flows for catchments with low runoff coefficients, highlighting the varying factors leading to changes in high flows. These results provide a national overview of climate change impacts on high flows across GB, which will inform climate change adaptation, while also highlighting the need to account for uncertainty sources when modelling climate change impact on high flows.

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