Evaluating Recent and Future Climatic Suitability for the Cultivation of Norway Spruce in the Czech Republic in Comparison with Observed Tree Cover Loss between 2001 and 2020

The high portion of secondary Norway spruce in Central European forests constitutes a major problem because a significant part of these forests is moving further away from their original bioclimatic envelope. The precise evaluation and prediction of climatic suitability are needed for the implementation of forest adaptation strategies. We evaluated climatic suitability for the cultivation of Norway spruce in the Czech Republic forests, making use of the Random Forest combined learning statistical method. The evaluation presented was based on a comparison with the climatic normal period 1961–1990; change analysis was carried out for the period 1991–2014 and projected for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. We found that suitable conditions for Norway spruce will remain only in 11.3% by area of Czech forests in the period 2041–2060 vs. 46.0% in the period 1961–1990. We also compared tree cover loss data (using Global Forest Watch) from 2001 to 2020 with statistics on salvage logging. In the period, the cover loss affected 19.5% of the area with more than 30% Norway spruce. The relationships between relative tree cover loss and the percentage of salvage logging caused by insects were conclusive and statistically significant.

Hot, unpredictable weather interacts with land use to restrict the distribution of the Yellow-tailed Black-Cockatoo

Conserving nomadic species is challenging due to the difficulty in monitoring their characteristically transient populations, and thereby detecting range-wide declines. An example is the Yellow-tailed Black-Cockatoo (YTBC; Zanda funerea), which disperses widely in search of food and is regularly—but sporadically—observed across eastern Australia. Under climate warming, a general southward shift in species distributions is expected in the southern hemisphere, with the extreme southern margins being truncated by an ocean barrier. Given these constraints, we ask whether sufficient refugia will exist for the YTBC in the future, by: (i) modelling habitat relationships within current geographic range of the YTBC based on weather, climate, vegetation, and land use, and (ii) using this framework, coupled with climate-model projections, to forecast 21st century impacts. Intensive land use and high variability in temperature and rainfall seem to most limit YTBC occurrence. In contrast, areas with a cooler, stable climate, and a network of old-growth forests, such as occurs in parts of south-eastern Australia and Tasmania, are most suitable for the species. As Australia becomes progressively hotter under climate change, the preferred bioclimatic envelope of the YTBC is forecast to contract poleward (as a general pattern) and to fragment within the existing range. However, despite an extensive loss of climatically suitable regions, the YTBC might find stable refugia at the southern margins of its geographic range, although continued loss of old-growth forests undermines their nesting potential. Therefore, beyond habitat conservation, creating nesting opportunities within plantation forests would likely be an effective conservation strategy to preserve habitat quality in climate refugia.

Anopheles spp. distribution and climatological niche modeling to predict malaria potential along bioclimatic envelope gradients in South Coast of West Java landscape

Malaria remains a major public health problem mainly in particular South East Asian countries. As malaria transmission and Anopheles spp. continues to spread, control interventions should emphasize on the ability to define potential areas that can favor Anopheles spp. distribution. Then there is an urgent need to use novel approach capable to predict potential spatial patterns of Anopheles spp. and delineate malaria potential hotspots for better environmental health planning and management. Here, this study modeled Anopheles spp. potential distribution as a function of 15 bioclimatic variables using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) in South Coast of West Java Province spans over 20 km from West to East. Findings of this study show that bioclimatic variables and SDM can be used to predict Anopheles spp. habitat suitability, suggesting the possibility of developing models for malaria early warning based on habitat suitability model. The resulting model shows that the potential distributions of Anopheles spp. encompassed areas from West to Central parts of the coasts, with Central parts were the most potential prevalence areas of Anopheles spp. considering this area has higher precipitation. The less potential prevalence areas of Anopheles spp. were observed in the East parts of the coast. The model also shows that inland areas adjacent to the settlements were more potential in comparison to the areas near coast and in the beach. Land cover conditions dominated by cropland, herbaceous wetland, and inundated land were also influencing the Anopheles spp. potential distribution.

Source-sink dynamics can maintain mismatched range and bioclimatic limits even at large spatial scales

Bioclimatic models assume that at broad spatial scales, climate is the primary determinant of species distribution. Meanwhile, processes such as source-sink dynamics can be ignored because they are thought to manifest at length scales comparable to species mean dispersal distance. We present a reaction-diffusion model to show species can use sink patches near the bioclimatic (or niche) limit as stepping-stones to occupy sinks much further than the mean dispersal distance, thereby extending the distribution far beyond the bioclimatic envelope. This mismatch between geographical and bioclimatic limits is mediated by the shape of the bioclimatic limit and may be significant for low growth sensitivity and fast dispersal life strategy. These findings challenge one of the core assumptions of the bioclimatic models. Therefore, we advocate that biogeographers consider the role of dispersal when using bioclimatic models to generate inferences about the ecological and evolutionary processes that determine the distribution of biota.

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.

Potential climate-induced distributions of <i>Lophodermium</i> needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century

Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997–2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression.