Years of life lost to COVID-19 in 81 countries

Understanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 42 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. As of June 13th 2020, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2 to 6 times the average seasonal influenza; over two thirds of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and one quarter from deaths below 55; and men have lost 47% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.

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Global years of life lost to COVID-19

10.1101/2020.06.19.20136069 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Héctor Pifarré i Arolas ◽

Enrique Acosta ◽

Guillem López Casasnovas ◽

Adeline Lo ◽

Catia Nicodemo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seasonal Influenza ◽

The Elderly ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Life Years ◽

Seasonal Flu ◽

The Dead ◽

Excess Deaths

Understanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 42 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. As of June 13th 2020, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2 to 6 times the average seasonal influenza; over two thirds of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and one quarter from deaths below 55; and men have lost 47% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.One Sentence SummaryAcross 42 countries, the years of life lost due to COVID-19 are up to 6 times that of the average seasonal flu.

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Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years due to Tuberculosis in Korea through to the Year 2040

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17165960 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (16) ◽

pp. 5960

Author(s):

Su Yeon Jang ◽

Moon Jung Kim ◽

Hyeon-Kyoung Cheong ◽

In-Hwan Oh

Keyword(s):

Current Trend ◽

The Elderly ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Korean Society ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Insurance Claims Data ◽

Health Insurance Claims Data

Despite efforts to reduce its incidence, tuberculosis continues to burden the rapidly aging Korean society. This study aimed to investigate the current trend of tuberculosis burden in Korea and its projections to 2040. We used National Health Insurance claims data to calculate the disability-adjusted life years due to tuberculosis in Korea. Disability-adjusted life years were measured by summing the years of life lost and the years lived with disability using an incidence-based approach. We modeled the incidence rates using a time-series model for the projection of disability-adjusted life years accrued from 2020 to 2040. The total disability-adjusted life years due to tuberculosis were 69, 64, 59, and 49 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 population in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. In both sexes, disability-adjusted life years were the highest in those aged ≥80 years. Projected disability-adjusted life years showed a descending trend from 38 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 in 2020, to 14 disability-adjusted life years/100,000 in 2040. Conversely, the projected disability-adjusted life years increased among females aged ≥80 years. Although the tuberculosis burden in Korea is decreasing, a high burden remains among the elderly. Therefore, interventions targeting those vulnerable are required.

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The Impact of Diabetes on Productivity in India

10.2337/figshare.16677592 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Khyati K Banker ◽

Danny Liew ◽

Zanfina Ademi ◽

Alice J Owen ◽

Afsana Afroz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Labour Force ◽

Productivity Loss ◽

Work Productivity ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Retirement Age ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Life Years ◽

Working Age ◽

The Impact ◽

Excess Deaths

OBJECTIVE Diabetes increases the risk of premature mortality and considerably impacts on work productivity. We sought to examine the impact of diabetes in India, in terms of excess premature mortality, years of life lost (YLL), productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost and its associated economic impact. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A lifetable model was constructed to examine the productivity of the Indian working-age population currently aged 20–59 years with diabetes, until death or retirement age (60 years). The same cohort was re-simulated, hypothetically assuming that they did not have diabetes. The total difference between the two cohorts, in terms of excess deaths, YLL and PALYs lost reflected the impact of diabetes. Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, mortality, labour force dropouts and productivity loss attributable to diabetes were derived from published sources. RESULTS In 2017, an estimated 54.4 million (7.6%) people of working-age in India had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until death or retirement age, diabetes was predicted to cause 8.5 million excess deaths (62.7% of all deaths), 42.7 million YLL (7.4% of total estimated years of life lived) and 89.0 million PALYs lost (23.3% of total estimated PALYs), equating to an estimated INR 176.6 trillion (USD 2.6 trillion; PPP 9.8 trillion) in lost GDP<a>. </a> CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates the impact of diabetes on productivity loss and highlights the importance of health strategies aimed at the prevention of diabetes.

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The Impact of Diabetes on Productivity in India

10.2337/figshare.16677592.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Khyati K Banker ◽

Danny Liew ◽

Zanfina Ademi ◽

Alice J Owen ◽

Afsana Afroz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Labour Force ◽

Productivity Loss ◽

Work Productivity ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Retirement Age ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Life Years ◽

Working Age ◽

The Impact ◽

Excess Deaths

OBJECTIVE Diabetes increases the risk of premature mortality and considerably impacts on work productivity. We sought to examine the impact of diabetes in India, in terms of excess premature mortality, years of life lost (YLL), productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost and its associated economic impact. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A lifetable model was constructed to examine the productivity of the Indian working-age population currently aged 20–59 years with diabetes, until death or retirement age (60 years). The same cohort was re-simulated, hypothetically assuming that they did not have diabetes. The total difference between the two cohorts, in terms of excess deaths, YLL and PALYs lost reflected the impact of diabetes. Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, mortality, labour force dropouts and productivity loss attributable to diabetes were derived from published sources. RESULTS In 2017, an estimated 54.4 million (7.6%) people of working-age in India had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until death or retirement age, diabetes was predicted to cause 8.5 million excess deaths (62.7% of all deaths), 42.7 million YLL (7.4% of total estimated years of life lived) and 89.0 million PALYs lost (23.3% of total estimated PALYs), equating to an estimated INR 176.6 trillion (USD 2.6 trillion; PPP 9.8 trillion) in lost GDP<a>. </a> CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates the impact of diabetes on productivity loss and highlights the importance of health strategies aimed at the prevention of diabetes.

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Estimation of Excess Mortality and Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 in Norway and Sweden between March and November 2020

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18083913 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (8) ◽

pp. 3913

Author(s):

Martin Rypdal ◽

Kristoffer Rypdal ◽

Ola Løvsletten ◽

Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye ◽

Elinor Ytterstad ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Excess Mortality ◽

Age Groups ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Regressive Model ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Expected Mortality ◽

Auto Regressive Model ◽

Excess Deaths

We estimate the weekly excess all-cause mortality in Norway and Sweden, the years of life lost (YLL) attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and the significance of mortality displacement. We computed the expected mortality by taking into account the declining trend and the seasonality in mortality in the two countries over the past 20 years. From the excess mortality in Sweden in 2019/20, we estimated the YLL attributed to COVID-19 using the life expectancy in different age groups. We adjusted this estimate for possible displacement using an auto-regressive model for the year-to-year variations in excess mortality. We found that excess all-cause mortality over the epidemic year, July 2019 to July 2020, was 517 (95%CI = (12, 1074)) in Norway and 4329 [3331, 5325] in Sweden. There were 255 COVID-19 related deaths reported in Norway, and 5741 in Sweden, that year. During the epidemic period of 11 March–11 November, there were 6247 reported COVID-19 deaths and 5517 (4701, 6330) excess deaths in Sweden. We estimated that the number of YLL attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden was 45,850 [13,915, 80,276] without adjusting for mortality displacement and 43,073 (12,160, 85,451) after adjusting for the displacement accounted for by the auto-regressive model. In conclusion, we find good agreement between officially recorded COVID-19 related deaths and all-cause excess deaths in both countries during the first epidemic wave and no significant mortality displacement that can explain those deaths.

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Burden of non-communicable diseases in Cyprus, 1990–2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Archives of Public Health ◽

10.1186/s13690-021-00655-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 79 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Periklis Charalampous ◽

Elena Pallari ◽

Stefanos Tyrovolas ◽

Nicos Middleton ◽

Mary Economou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Burden Of Disease ◽

Acne Vulgaris ◽

Communicable Diseases ◽

Global Burden Of Disease ◽

Cancer Drug ◽

Global Burden ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Non Communicable Diseases ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for over 90% of all deaths in the Cypriot population, in 2018. However, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the impact of NCDs on population health of Cyprus over the period of 1990 to 2017, expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), is currently not available. Knowledge about the drivers of changes in NCD DALYs over time is paramount to identify priorities for the prevention of NCDs in Cyprus and guide evidence-based decision making. The objectives of this paper were to: 1) assess the burden of NCDs in terms of years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and DALYs in Cyprus in 2017, and 2) identify changes in the burden of NCDs in Cyprus over the 28-year period and assess the main drivers of these changes. Methods We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 results on NCDs for Cyprus from 1990 to 2017. We calculated the percentage change of age-standardized DALY rates between 1990 and 2017 and decomposed these time trends to assess the causes of death and disability that were the main drivers of change. Results In Cyprus in 2017, 83% (15,129 DALYs per 100,000; 12,809 to 17,707 95%UI) of total DALYs were due to NCDs. The major contributors to NCD DALYs were cardiovascular diseases (16.5%), neoplasms (16.3%), and musculoskeletal disorders (15.6%). Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardized NCD DALY rates decreased by 23%. For both males and females, the largest decreases in DALY rates were observed in ischemic heart disease and stroke. For Cypriot males, the largest increases in DALY rates were observed for pancreatic cancer, drug use disorders, and acne vulgaris, whereas for Cypriot females these were for acne vulgaris, psoriasis and eating disorders. Conclusion Despite a decrease in the burden of NCDs over the period from 1990 to 2017, NCDs are still a major public health challenge. Implementation of interventions and early detection screening programmes of modifiable NCD risk factors are needed to reduce occurrence and exacerbation of leading causes of NCDs in the Cypriot population.

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The burden of cancer in Belgium, 2004-2017

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.1012 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

A Cornez ◽

G Silversmit ◽

V Gorasso ◽

I Grant ◽

G M A Wyper ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Lung Cancer ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Disease Burden ◽

Expert Elicitation ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Cancer Burden ◽

Life Years ◽

Belgian Population ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Monitoring the health status of a population requires consistent and comparable data on the morbidity and mortality impacts of a disease. The Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is an increasingly used disease burden indicator, combining healthy life years lost due to living with disease (Years Lived with Disability; YLDs) and due to dying prematurely (Years of Life Lost; YLLs). In Belgium, as in many other developed countries, cancer is a major contributor to the overall burden of disease. To date, however, local estimates of the burden of cancer are lacking. Methods We estimated the burden of 48 cancers in Belgium from 2004 to 2017 in terms of DALYs, using national population-based cancer registry data and international disease models. We developed a microsimulation model to translate incidence- into prevalence-based estimates, and used expert elicitation to integrate the long-term impact of surgical treatment. Results In 2017, in Belgium, breast cancer was the cancer with the highest disease burden among women, followed by lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Among men, lung cancer had the highest disease burden, followed by colorectal cancer and prostate cancer. Between 2004 and 2017, the burden of lung cancer increased by more than 50% in women, while in both sexes, significant increases were observed in melanoma and skin cancer burden. The majority of the cancer burden remained linked to premature mortality. Conclusions Cancer maintains a major impact on the health of the Belgian population. Current resources allocated for their prevention and treatment will need to be maintained to further reduce the cancer burden. Lung cancer remains a crucial challenge, among both men and women, calling for strengthened tobacco control policies. Integrating the current study in the Belgian national burden of disease study (BeBOD) will allow monitoring the burden of cancer over time, highlighting new trends and assessing the impact of public health policies. Key messages Burden of disease studies allow assessing and monitoring the impact of diseases and risk factors in a comparable way. Cancer maintains a major impact on the health of the Belgian population; lung cancer in particular remains a crucial challenge.

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32.L. Workshop: Deconstructing the DALY: step by step guide to calculating YLL and YLD

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.1438 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

◽

Keyword(s):

Population Health ◽

Burden Of Disease ◽

Local Population ◽

Real Life ◽

Estimation Methods ◽

Years Of Life Lost ◽

Supporting Evidence ◽

Methodological Choices ◽

Multiple Components ◽

Life Years

Abstract A Burden of Disease (BoD) approach can be used to summarise the debilitating effects of morbidity and premature mortality in a population in a consistent and comparable manner. Summary measures of population health such as the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) have become key metrics for quantifying burden of disease. DALYs quantify the health gap between a life lived in perfect health and current health status, as the number of healthy life years lost due to illness (Years Lived with Disability, YLDs) and premature death (Years of Life Lost, YLLs). DALYs combine the effects of morbidity and mortality in an equitable way, and can therefore be used to identify the leading causes of disease or injury that cause BoD and to quantify the relative importance of specific risk factors. BoD studies are becoming an increasingly popular way to assess national and local population health as a means to influence national and local policy decisions. The increasing prominence of the burden of disease approach, however, comes at a cost. Calculations of DALYs involve multiple components and as such can be difficult for people to interpret. Burden of disease methodology is complex and highly data intensive, which has led to major disparities across researchers and nations in their capacity to perform studies, to interpret the soundness of available estimates, or to evidence and advocate for the use of particular methodological choices. In this skills-building seminar, we will give an overview of the methodology of calculating the DALY. It will outline the single steps to be undertaken, and the necessary assumptions that have to be taken, on the way to the calculation of the DALYs. This workshop will be supported by technical presentations from burden of disease experts about different choices of estimation methods to calculate both the fatal burden (YLL) and the non-fatal burden (YLD). Throughout the presentations, cerebrovascular disease will be used as a case study, giving a complete, real-life example of how DALYs are calculated. Overall, the aim is to demonstrate the importance of the choices researchers make when designing and interpreting BoD studies as a means of supporting evidence-based decision making. The workshop will foresee ample time for interaction with the audience and discussion of the implications of the different methodological choices. Key messages Although burden of disease methodology is complex, with calculations of DALYs involving multiple components, simple roadmaps can be created to enhance methodological knowledge. The choices and assumptions researchers make are important when designing and interpreting burden of disease studies.

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