Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change

AbstractEndemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling (SDM) can be used to assess the vulnerability of species under climate change. Here, we evaluated range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species that grow at various elevations (Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana) using species distribution modelling. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), we predicted potential current and future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for each species. The ensemble model of nine algorithms was used to perform this prediction. Our results indicate that while two of species investigated would benefit from range expansion in the future, P. binaludensis will experience range contraction. The range of E. ferdowsiana will remain limited to the Binalood mountains, but the other species will have suitable habitats in mountain ranges across the KK. Using management efforts (such as fencing) with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales in the KK is necessary to conserve these species. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains in the KK would be beneficial to conserve these plants. For E. ferdowsiana, genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered.

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Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change

10.1101/2020.09.19.304766 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mohammad Bagher Erfanian ◽

Mostafa Sagharyan ◽

Farshid Memariani ◽

Hamid Ejtehadi

Keyword(s):

Endemic Species ◽

General Circulation ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Botanical Garden ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

The Other ◽

Potential Range ◽

Endemic Plants ◽

Migration Routes ◽

Kopet Dagh

AbstractKhorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province is an ecoregion that has rarely been studied. A total number of 2576 (356 endemic) vascular plants have been recorded from this area. Most of the endemic species of KK are rare and range-restricted. To assess the vulnerability of plant species under a rapidly changing climate, we can use species distribution modelling (SDM) to predict their potential present and future distribution. We used SDM to evaluate range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species to KK, namely Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana. These plants represent KK endemic species that grow in the different elevation ranges of KK mountains. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP), including RCP 2.6 (most optimistic) and RCP 8.5 (most pessimistic), we predicted the potential present and future (i.e., 2050 and 2070) distribution for each species. The ensemble model of nine different methods was used for this prediction. Our results showed that, except for P. binaludensis that will face range contraction, the other species would benefit from potential range expansion in the future. Euphorbia ferdowsiana will remain limited to a narrow range of KK. However, the other two plants will have suitable habitats in various mountains of KK. To conserve flora of KK, we urge using management efforts with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at the local scales in KK mountains. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains of this region will be beneficial to conserve its endemic plants. For E. ferdowsiana genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Marine species distribution modelling and the effects of genetic isolation under climate change.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.733823160.793549530 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Andrew Baird ◽

Joana Figueiredo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Marine Species ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Genetic Isolation ◽

Distribution Modelling

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Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2017.0446 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 373 (1761) ◽

pp. 20170446 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Scott Jarvie ◽

Jens-Christian Svenning

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

First Century ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Distribution Modelling ◽

Major Barrier ◽

Methodological Choices ◽

Biodiversity And Ecosystem Function

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

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Strictly protected species of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) in Serbia in the face of climate change

Zbornik Matice srpske za prirodne nauke ◽

10.2298/zmspn1835053m ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 53-62 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Marija Milicic ◽

Marina Jankovic ◽

Dubravka Milic ◽

Snezana Radenkovic ◽

Ante Vujic

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Protected Species ◽

Southeastern Part ◽

Distribution Modelling ◽

Mountainous Regions ◽

The Face ◽

Intensive Land Use

Climate change is happening. Due to a spectrum of possible conse?quences, numerous studies examine the effects of global warming on species distribution. This study examines the effects of changing climate on distribution of selected strictly protected species of hoverflies in Serbia, by using species distribution modelling. Ten species were included in the analysis. Three species were predicted to lose a part of their range across time, while for seven species the range expansion was predicted. Both in the present time and in the future, mountainous regions have the highest species richness, such as Golija, Kopaonik, and Prokletije in the western Serbia, and mountains Stara Planina, Besna Kobila, Suva Planina, and Dukat in the southeastern part of the country. However, beside climate change, there are several other factors that might influence the distribution of strictly pro?tected hoverflies in Serbia, such as intensive land use and degradation of habitats. Addition?ally, global warming also affects flowering plants that syrphids are dependent on, which could present another obstacle to their future range expansions. These results can contribute to planning future steps for the conservation of strictly protected hoverfly species.

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Predicting the potential distribution ofVexillata(Nematoda: Ornithostrongylidae) and its hosts (Mammalia: Rodentia) within America

Journal of Helminthology ◽

10.1017/s0022149x12000612 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 87 (4) ◽

pp. 400-408 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

E.A. Martínez-Salazar ◽

T. Escalante ◽

M. Linaje ◽

J. Falcón-Ordaz

Keyword(s):

Environmental Factor ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Host Species ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Distribution Modelling ◽

Distributional Patterns ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Temperature Seasonality ◽

Host Parasite

AbstractSpecies distribution modelling has been a powerful tool to explore the potential distribution of parasites in wildlife, being the basis of studies on biogeography.Vexillataspp. are intestinal nematodes found in several species of mammalian hosts, such as rodents (Geomyoidea) and hares (Leporidae) in the Nearctic and northern Neotropical regions. In the present study, we modelled the potential distribution ofVexillataspp. and their hosts, using exclusively species from the Geomyidae and Heteromyidae families, in order to identify their distributional patterns. Bioclimatic and topographic variables were used to identify and predict suitable habitats forVexillataand its hosts. Using these models, we identified that temperature seasonality is a significant environmental factor that influences the distribution of the parasite genus and its host. In particular, the geographical distribution is estimated to be larger than that predicted for its hosts. This suggests that the nematode has the potential to extend its geographical range and also its spectrum of host species. Increasing sample size and geographical coverage will contribute to recommendations for conservation of this host–parasite system.

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