Risikoabschätzung einer akuten Exazerbation bei COPD-Patienten im Rahmen einer pneumologischen Anschluss-Rehabilitation anhand der Prävalenz und Schwergradausprägung von Komorbiditäten

Pneumologie ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Luu ◽  
S. Tulka ◽  
S. Knippschild ◽  
W. Windisch ◽  
M. Spielmanns
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Charlson Comorbidity Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sensitivität Und Spezifität ◽  
Comorbidity Index ◽  
Receiver Operating

Zusammenfassung Einleitung Akute COPD-Exazerbationen (AECOPD) im Rahmen einer pneumologischen Rehabilitation (PR) sind häufige und gefährliche Komplikationen. Neben Einschränkungen der Lebensqualität führen sie zu einem Unterbrechung der PR und gefährden den PR-Erfolg. Eine Abhängigkeit zwischen dem Krankheitsstatus und einem erhöhten Risiko für eine AECOPD ist beschrieben. Dabei stellt sich die Frage, ob der Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) oder die Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS) dafür geeignet sind, besonders exazerbationsgefährdete COPD-Patienten in der PR im Vorfeld zu detektieren. Patienten und Methoden In einer retrospektiven Untersuchung wurden die Daten von COPD-Patienten, welche im Jahr 2018 eine PR erhielten, analysiert. Primärer Endpunkt der Untersuchung war die Punktzahl im CCI. Alle Daten wurden dem Klinikinformationssystem Phönix entnommen und COPD-Exazerbationen erfasst. Die laut Fallzahlplanung benötigten 44 Patienten wurden zufällig (mittels Zufallsliste für jede Gruppe) aus diesem Datenpool rekrutiert: 22 Patienten mit und 22 ohne Exazerbation während der PR. CCI und CIRS wurden für die eingeschlossenen Fälle für beide Gruppen bestimmt. Die Auswertung des primären Endpunktes (CCI) erfolgte durch den Gruppenvergleich der arithmetischen Mittel und der Signifikanzprüfung (Welch-Tests). Weitere statistische Lage- und Streuungsmaße wurden ergänzt (Median, Quartile, Standardabweichung).Zusätzlich wurde mittels Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-Analyse sowohl für den CCI als auch für den CIRS ein optimaler Cutpoint zur Diskriminierung in AECOPD- und Nicht-AECOPD-Patienten gesucht. Ergebnisse 244 COPD-Patienten erhielten eine stationäre PR von durchschnittlich 21 Tagen, wovon 59 (24 %) während der PR eine behandlungspflichtige AECOPD erlitten. Die ausgewählten 22 Patienten mit einer AECOPD hatten einen mittleren CCI von 6,77 (SD: 1,97) und die 22 Patienten ohne AECOPD von 4,32 (SD: 1,17). Die Differenz von –2,45 war zu einem Signifikanzniveau von 5 % statistisch signifikant (p < 0,001; 95 %-KI: [–3,45 ; –1,46]). Die ROC-Analyse zeigte einen optimalen Cutpoint für den CCI bei 6 mit einer Sensitivität zur Feststellung einer AECOPD von 81,8 % und einer Spezifität von 86.,4 % mit einem Wert der AUC (area under the curve) von 0,87. Der optimale Cutpoint für den CIRS war 19 mit einer Sensitivität von 50 %, einer Spezifität von 77,2 % und einer AUC von 0,65. Schlussfolgerung COPD-Patienten mit einer akuten Exazerbation während der pneumologischen Rehabilitation haben einen höheren CCI. Mithilfe des CCI lässt sich mit einer hohen Sensitivität und Spezifität das Risiko einer AECOPD von COPD-Patienten im Rahmen eines stationären PR-Programms einschätzen.

Bispectral Index in predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with ischemic stroke: A methodological study

2020 ◽  
pp. 102490792090867
Author(s):  
Sultan Tuna Akgol Gur ◽  
Ilker Akbas ◽  
Muhammed Zubeyir Kose ◽  
Abdullah Osman Kocak ◽  
Alper Eren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Glasgow Coma Scale ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Bispectral Index ◽  
Charlson Comorbidity Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Coma Scale ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Comorbidity Index ◽  
Receiver Operating

Background: Ischemic stroke is a leading cause of death and functional disability worldwide. Several clinical scores or stroke scales, biological test or markers, clinical signs, and radiological imaging have been performed to predict both worse neurologic outcome and mortality for ischemic stroke. Objectives: The aim of our study was to investigate the association between early Bispectral Index scores and in-hospital mortality in patients with ischemic stroke. Methods: This is a comparative prospective methodological study, in which we evaluated the predictive accuracies of Bispectral Index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and Charlson Comorbidity Index for in-hospital mortality of patients with ischemic stroke. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used for comparing the accuracy of the scoring systems, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated, and Youden J index was used for estimating associated cut-off values. Results: Among the 80 ischemic stroke patients, in-hospital mortality rate was 38.8% (n = 31). The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.984, 0.960, and 0.863 for Bispectral Index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and Charlson Comorbidity Index, respectively. The difference between areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for Bispectral Index and Glasgow Coma Scale was statistically similar. Besides, the difference between areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for Bispectral Index and Charlson Comorbidity Index, and the difference between areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for Glasgow Coma Scale and Charlson Comorbidity Index were statistically significant. The associated cut-off values were ⩽74, ⩽12, and >4 for Bispectral Index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and Charlson Comorbidity Index, respectively. For these cut-off points, sensitivity and specificity of Bispectral Index were 93.6% and 95.9%, sensitivity and specificity of Glasgow Coma Scale were 100.0% and 83.7%, and sensitivity and specificity of Charlson Comorbidity Index were 83.9% and 69.4%, respectively. However, accuracy of Bispectral Index was 95.0%, accuracy of Glasgow Coma Scale was 90.0%, and accuracy of Charlson Comorbidity Index was 75.0. Conclusion: Knowledge of the risk factors for mortality in patients with ischemic stroke can help to identify which patients have a higher risk of fatal outcome. The Bispectral Index score improved discrimination and classified patients with higher mortality better than both Glasgow Coma Scale and Charlson Comorbidity Index.

scholarly journals Cut-off points between pain intensities of the postoperative pain using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sooyoung Cho ◽  
Youn Jin Kim ◽  
Minjin Lee ◽  
Jae Hee Woo ◽  
Hyun Jung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Postoperative Pain ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Severe Pain ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Intraclass Correlation ◽  
Pain Medication ◽  
Patient Specific ◽  
Moderate Pain ◽  
Receiver Operating

Abstract Background Pain assessment and management are important in postoperative circumstances as overdosing of opioids can induce respiratory depression and critical consequences. We aimed this study to check the reliability of commonly used pain scales in a postoperative setting among Korean adults. We also intended to determine cut-off points of pain scores between mild and moderate pain and between moderate and severe pain by which can help to decide to use pain medication. Methods A total of 180 adult patients undergoing elective non-cardiac surgery were included. Postoperative pain intensity was rated with a visual analog scale (VAS), numeric rating scale (NRS), faces pain scale revised (FPS-R), and verbal rating scale (VRS). The VRS rated pain according to four grades: none, mild, moderate, and severe. Pain assessments were performed twice: when the patients were alert enough to communicate after arrival at the postoperative care unit (PACU) and 30 min after arrival at the PACU. The levels of agreement among the scores were evaluated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The cut-off points were determined by receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The ICCs among the VAS, NRS, and FPS-R were consistently high (0.839–0.945). The pain categories were as follow: mild ≦ 5.3 / moderate 5.4 ~ 7.1 /severe ≧ 7.2 in VAS, mild ≦ 5 / moderate 6 ~ 7 / severe ≧ 8 in NRS, mild ≦ 4 / moderate 6 / severe 8 and 10 in FPS-R. The cut-off points for analgesics request were VAS ≧ 5.5, NRS ≧ 6, FPS-R ≧ 6, and VRS ≧ 2 (moderate or severe pain). Conclusions During the immediate postoperative period, VAS, NRS, and FPS-R were well correlated. The boundary between mild and moderate pain was around five on 10-point scales, and it corresponded to the cut-off point of analgesic request. Healthcare providers should consider VRS and other patient-specific signs to avoid undertreatment of pain or overdosing of pain medication.

scholarly journals Identification of an optimal prolactin threshold to determine prolactinoma size using receiver operating characteristic analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca M. Leca ◽  
Maria Mytilinaiou ◽  
Marina Tsoli ◽  
Andreea Epure ◽  
Simon J. B. Aylwin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Tumour Size ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Serum Prolactin ◽  
Pituitary Neoplasms ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Roc Curve Analysis ◽  
Baseline Serum ◽  
Receiver Operating

AbstractProlactinomas represent the most common type of secretory pituitary neoplasms, with a therapeutic management that varies considerably based on tumour size and degree of hyperprolactinemia. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the relationship between serum prolactin (PRL) concentrations and prolactinoma size, and to determine a cut-off PRL value that could differentiate micro- from macro-prolactinomas. A retrospective cohort study of 114 patients diagnosed with prolactinomas between 2007 and 2017 was conducted. All patients underwent gadolinium enhanced pituitary MRI and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed. 51.8% of patients in this study were men, with a mean age at the time of diagnosis of 42.32 ± 15.04 years. 48.2% of the total cohort were found to have microadenomas. Baseline serum PRL concentrations were strongly correlated to tumour dimension (r = 0.750, p = 0.001). When performing the ROC curve analysis, the area under the curve was 0.976, indicating an excellent accuracy of the diagnostic method. For a value of 204 μg/L (4338 mU/L), sensitivity and specificity were calculated at 0.932 and 0.891, respectively. When a cut off value of 204 μg/L (4338 mU/L) was used, specificity was 93.2%, and sensitivity 89.1%, acceptable to reliably differentiate between micro- and macro- adenomas.

Considerations on the region of interest in the ROC space

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022110605
Author(s):  
Luigi Lavazza ◽  
Sandro Morasca
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
False Positive Rate ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
True Positive Rate ◽  
True Positive ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Positive Rate ◽  
Receiver Operating

Receiver Operating Characteristic curves have been widely used to represent the performance of diagnostic tests. The corresponding area under the curve, widely used to evaluate their performance quantitatively, has been criticized in several respects. Several proposals have been introduced to improve area under the curve by taking into account only specific regions of the Receiver Operating Characteristic space, that is, the plane to which Receiver Operating Characteristic curves belong. For instance, a region of interest can be delimited by setting specific thresholds for the true positive rate or the false positive rate. Different ways of setting the borders of the region of interest may result in completely different, even opposing, evaluations. In this paper, we present a method to define a region of interest in a rigorous and objective way, and compute a partial area under the curve that can be used to evaluate the performance of diagnostic tests. The method was originally conceived in the Software Engineering domain to evaluate the performance of methods that estimate the defectiveness of software modules. We compare this method with previous proposals. Our method allows the definition of regions of interest by setting acceptability thresholds on any kind of performance metric, and not just false positive rate and true positive rate: for instance, the region of interest can be determined by imposing that [Formula: see text] (also known as the Matthews Correlation Coefficient) is above a given threshold. We also show how to delimit the region of interest corresponding to acceptable costs, whenever the individual cost of false positives and false negatives is known. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the method by applying it to the Wisconsin Breast Cancer Data. We provide Python and R packages supporting the presented method.

scholarly journals miR-142-3p as a novel biomarker for predicting poor prognosis in renal cell carcinoma patients after surgery

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiqi Peng ◽  
Xiang Pan ◽  
Kaihao Liu ◽  
Chunduo Zhang ◽  
Liwen Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Renal Cell ◽  
Poor Prognosis ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
The Cancer Genome Atlas ◽  
Receiver Operating

Background: miR-142-3p has proved to be involved in tumorigenesis and the development of renal cell carcinoma. The present study aimed to explore the prognostic value of miR-142-3p. Methods: Total RNA was extracted from renal cell carcinoma specimens and the expression level of miR-142-3p was measured. Pearson Chi-square test, Kaplan–Meier analysis, as well as univariate and multivariate regression analysis were performed to determine the correlation between miR-142-3p and the prognosis of renal cell carcinoma patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to evaluate the predictive efficiency of miR-142-3p for the prognosis of renal cell carcinoma patients. Data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were utilized to validate our findings. Results: Our results demonstrated that upregulation of miR-142-3p was correlated with shorter overall survival (P=0.002) and was, in the meantime, an independent prognostic factor for renal cell carcinoma patients (P=0.002). The receiver operating characteristic curve combining miR-142-3p expression with tumor stage showed an area under the curve of 0.633 (95% confidence interval 0.563, 0.702). The result of TCGA data was consistent with our findings. Conclusions: Our results suggest miR-142-3p expression is correlated with poor prognosis of renal cell carcinoma patients and may serve as a prognostic biomarker in the future.

Diagnostic value of the wideband acoustic absorbance test in middle-ear effusion

2015 ◽  
Vol 129 (11) ◽  
pp. 1078-1084 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Terzi ◽  
A Özgür ◽  
Ö Ç Erdivanli ◽  
Z Ö Coşkun ◽  
M Ogurlu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Otitis Media ◽  
Middle Ear ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Otitis Media With Effusion ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Middle Ear Effusion ◽  
Ear Effusion ◽  
Receiver Operating

AbstractObjectives:This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of wideband acoustic absorbance testing in otitis media with effusion.Methods:This prospective study compared middle-ear wideband acoustic absorbance rates in three paediatric patient groups: a healthy group of 34 volunteers; 48 patients diagnosed with otitis media with effusion; and 28 patients with chronic effusion but no sign of effusion during myringotomy. The diagnostic value of absorbance testing was analysed with the receiver operating characteristic test.Results:The wideband acoustic absorbance rate was significantly lower in the otitis media with effusion group than in both the otitis media and healthy groups at the 0.375–2 kHz averaged mean absorbance (p < 0.017 and p < 0.001, respectively). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed the highest diagnostic value for the 0.375–2 kHz averaged mean (area under the curve 0.984), followed by those at 1 and 1.5 kHz (area under the curve: 0.973 and 0.967, respectively).Conclusion:The wideband acoustic absorbance test is more accurate for detecting middle-ear effusion compared with conventional 226-Hz tympanometry. Its practicality and objectivity suggest that the wideband acoustic absorbance test may be a better alternative for diagnosing otitis media with effusion.

A simple method to estimate the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve with right censored data

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 2264-2278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Li ◽  
Tom Greene ◽  
Bo Hu
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve is often used to study the diagnostic accuracy of a single continuous biomarker, measured at baseline, on the onset of a disease condition when the disease onset may occur at different times during the follow-up and hence may be right censored. Due to right censoring, the true disease onset status prior to the pre-specified time horizon may be unknown for some patients, which causes difficulty in calculating the time-dependent sensitivity and specificity. We propose to estimate the time-dependent sensitivity and specificity by weighting the censored data by the conditional probability of disease onset prior to the time horizon given the biomarker, the observed time to event, and the censoring indicator, with the weights calculated nonparametrically through a kernel regression on time to event. With this nonparametric weighting adjustment, we derive a novel, closed-form formula to calculate the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve. We demonstrate through numerical study and theoretical arguments that the proposed method is insensitive to misspecification of the kernel bandwidth, produces unbiased and efficient estimators of time-dependent sensitivity and specificity, the area under the curve, and other estimands from the receiver operating characteristic curve, and outperforms several other published methods currently implemented in R packages.

scholarly journals Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) movies, universal ROC (UROC) curves, and coefficient of predictive ability (CPA)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tilmann Gneiting ◽  
Eva-Maria Walz
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Roc Analysis ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Binary Classification ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Receiver Operating

AbstractThroughout science and technology, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and associated area under the curve ($$\mathrm{AUC}$$ AUC ) measures constitute powerful tools for assessing the predictive abilities of features, markers and tests in binary classification problems. Despite its immense popularity, ROC analysis has been subject to a fundamental restriction, in that it applies to dichotomous (yes or no) outcomes only. Here we introduce ROC movies and universal ROC (UROC) curves that apply to just any linearly ordered outcome, along with an associated coefficient of predictive ability ($${\mathrm{CPA}}$$ CPA ) measure. $${\mathrm{CPA}}$$ CPA equals the area under the UROC curve, and admits appealing interpretations in terms of probabilities and rank based covariances. For binary outcomes $${\mathrm{CPA}}$$ CPA equals $$\mathrm{AUC}$$ AUC , and for pairwise distinct outcomes $${\mathrm{CPA}}$$ CPA relates linearly to Spearman’s coefficient, in the same way that the C index relates linearly to Kendall’s coefficient. ROC movies, UROC curves, and $${\mathrm{CPA}}$$ CPA nest and generalize the tools of classical ROC analysis, and are bound to supersede them in a wealth of applications. Their usage is illustrated in data examples from biomedicine and meteorology, where rank based measures yield new insights in the WeatherBench comparison of the predictive performance of convolutional neural networks and physical-numerical models for weather prediction.

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