Spatial and temporal variations in resilience to tropical cyclones along the United States coastline as determined by the multi-hazard hurricane impact level model

Convective storms affect countries worldwide, with billions in losses and dozens of fatalities every year. They are now the key insured loss driver in the United States, even after considering the losses sustained by tropical cyclones in 2017. Since 2008, total insured losses from convective storms have exceeded $10 billion per year. Additionally, these losses continue to increase year over year. Key loss drivers include increased population, buildings, vehicles, and property values. However, other loss drivers relate to construction materials and practices, as well as building code adoption and enforcement. The increasing loss trends pose a number of challenges for the insurance industry and broader society. These challenges are discussed, and some recommendations are presented.

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Effects of temporal variations in seismicity on seismic hazard

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/bssa0710010321 ◽

1981 ◽

Vol 71 (1) ◽

pp. 321-334

Author(s):

Robin K. McGuire ◽

Theodore P. Barnhard

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Seismic Activity ◽

Time Window ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

The United States ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Seismogenic Zone ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Ground Shaking

abstract The accuracy of stationary mathematical models of seismicity for calculating probabilities of damaging shaking is examined using the history of earthquakes in China from 1350 A.D. to 1949 A.D. During this time, rates of seismic activity varied periodically by a factor of 10. Probabilities of damaging shaking are calculated in 62 cities in North China using 50 yr of earthquake data to estimate seismicity parameters; the probabilities are compared to statistics of damaging shaking in the same cities for 50 yr following the data window. These comparisons indicate that the seismic hazard analysis is accurate if: (1) the maximum possible earthquake size in each seismogenic zone is determined from the entire seismic history rather than from a short-time window; and (2) the future seismic activity can be estimated accurately. The first condition emphasizes the importance of realistically estimating the maximum possible size of earthquakes on faults. The second indicates the need to understand possible trends in seismic activity where these exist, or to develop an earthquake prediction capability with which to estimate future activity. Without the capability of estimating future seismicity, stationary models provide less accurate but generally conservative indications of seismic ground-shaking hazard. In the United States, the available earthquake history is brief but gives no indication of changing rates of activity. The rate of seismic strain release in the Central and Eastern United States has been constant over the last 180 yr, and the geological record of earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault indicates no temporal trend for large shocks over the last 15 centuries. Both observations imply that seismic activity is either stationary or of such a long period that it may be treated as stationary for seismic hazard analyses in the United States.

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Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: New Data and Interpretation

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-12-00074.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 95 (3) ◽

pp. 341-346 ◽

Cited By ~ 124

Author(s):

Edward N. Rappaport

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

The United States

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Temporal variations and spatial disparities in public sentiment towards COVID-19 and preventive practices in the United States (Preprint)

JMIR Infodemiology ◽

10.2196/31671 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alexander Kahanek ◽

Xinchen Yu ◽

Lingzi Hong ◽

Ana Cleveland ◽

Jodi Philbrick

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

The United States ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Spatial Disparities ◽

Preventive Practices ◽

Public Sentiment

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Assessing the influence of an extended hurricane season on inland flooding potential in the Southeast United States

10.5194/nhess-2016-320 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Monica H. Stone ◽

Sagy Cohen

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Climate Warming ◽

Global Climate ◽

River Basins ◽

The United States ◽

Southeast United States ◽

Global Climate Warming ◽

Hurricane Season ◽

Near Future

Abstract. Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20 % more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the Southeast United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. An analysis of the timing of tropical cyclones that impact these river basins found that most occur during the low discharge season, and thus rarely produce riverine flooding conditions. However, an extension of the current hurricane season of June–November, due to global climate warming, could encroach upon the high discharge seasons in these basins, increasing the susceptibility for riverine hurricane-induced flooding. This analysis shows that an extension of the hurricane season to May–December (just 2 months longer) increased the number of days that would be at risk to flooding were the average tropical cyclone to occur by 37–258 %, depending on the timing of the hurricane season in relation to the high discharge seasons on these rivers. Future research should aim to extend this analysis to all river basins in the United States that are impacted by tropical cyclones in order to provide a bigger picture of which areas are likely to experience the worst increases in flooding risk due to a probable extension of the hurricane season with expected global climate change in the near future.

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Temporal and spatial variations in freeze warnings in the conterminous United States: 2005–2018

Theoretical and Applied Climatology ◽

10.1007/s00704-019-03056-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 139 (3-4) ◽

pp. 1379-1384

Author(s):

Brandon Lawhorn ◽

Robert C. Balling

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

The United States ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Atmospheric Composition ◽

Southeastern Us ◽

The Us ◽

Temporal And Spatial ◽

Frost Free Period ◽

Spatial And Temporal Trends

AbstractIt is well-documented that the United States (US), along with other mid-latitude land locations, has experienced warming in recent decades in response to changes in atmospheric composition. Among other changes, Easterling (2002) reported that the frost-free period is now longer across much of the US with the first frost in fall occurring later and the last freeze in spring occurring earlier. In this investigation, we explore spatial and temporal variations in all freeze warnings issued by the US National Weather Service. Freeze warning counts are highest in the southeastern US peaking overall in the spring and fall months. Freeze warnings tend to occur more toward summer moving northward and westward into more northerly states. Consistent with the warming in recent decades, we find statistically significant northward movements in freeze warning centroids in some months (December, February) across the study period (2005–2018). Detection of spatial and temporal trends in freeze warnings may be of interest to any number of scientists with applied climatological interests.

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Regional and Temporal Variations in Comorbidity Among US Dialysis Patients: A Longitudinal Study of Medicare Claims Data

INQUIRY The Journal of Health Care Organization Provision and Financing ◽

10.1177/0046958018771163 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 55 ◽

pp. 004695801877116

Author(s):

Yi Mu ◽

Andrew I. Chin ◽

Abhijit V. Kshirsagar ◽

Yi Zhang ◽

Heejung Bang

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Health Care Policy ◽

Claims Data ◽

The United States ◽

Temporal Variations ◽

Medicare Claims ◽

Comorbidity Index ◽

Stage Renal Disease ◽

Medicare Claims Data

Medicare claims data are commonly used to query comorbidities for case-mix adjustment in research of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States. These adjustments may affect reimbursement and quality rating through comparative profiling and ranking of dialysis facilities. We studied regional and temporal variations in comorbidity from claims data in the United States Renal Data System. Patients with a previous 1-year Medicare history who initiated dialysis therapy between 2006 and 2009 were examined with a follow-up period until 2012. By linking pre- and post-ESRD Medicare claims with the Dartmouth Atlas, we carried out a longitudinal data analysis with multivariable adjustment to investigate regional and temporal variations in the Liu comorbidity index. We identified 23 336 incident hemodialysis patients who were covered by Medicare the year prior to dialysis initiation and had survived with complete 3 years of follow-up data. With the United States divided into 4 geographic regions, the Western region was found to have the lowest Liu index over all 3 follow-up years, compared with the respective years in the other regions (Midwest, Northeast, and South). In comparison with the first year, the Liu index dropped significantly during the second and third years of follow-up across all 4 regions. Significant regional and temporal variations observed in the comorbidity index cannot be explained by differences in reimbursement (average per state) or predialysis comorbidity. Based on our exploratory study, future studies should focus on identifying the factors and reasons for these variations which have the potential to affect health care policy and research.

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