Construction in an Open Economy: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach and Causality Analysis—Case of North Cyprus

2013 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
pp. 1199-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vedat Yorucu
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
North Cyprus ◽  
Lag Modeling

Internet tradition and tourism development: A causality analysis on BRI listed economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 926-957
Author(s):  
Obaid Ur Rehman ◽  
Xiaoxing Liu ◽  
Abdul Rauf ◽  
Mayada Ben Slama ◽  
Waqas Amin
Keyword(s):  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Technological Infrastructure ◽  
Underdeveloped Countries ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Tourism Revenue

The study aims to explain the economic impact of Internet implication in tourism sector by taking sample of mega project listed countries (which provide big pitch to boost tourism business). Our work find the volatility cause of tourism revenue at country i, by examining the inbound tourist expenditures as a factor of technological infrastructure. We deploy data ranging from 1990 to 2017 and uses error correction model as representative of Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) model after addressing diagnostic tests (for data reliability concern). We found long- and short-run association between tourism expenditure and information and communication technology (ICT) proxies in case of developed economies, while only short-run association in underdeveloped countries. The startling scenario about underdeveloped economies are also confirmed by one-way causation in our analysis. After sensitive analysis at each slot, the study concludes that tourism revenue is streaming low across those boundaries where tourists are suffered by paying more due to technological inaccessibility and its underdeveloped infrastructure. The suffered economies are recommended to upgrade their ICT sector to facilitate inbound tourist.

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Trade Balance in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
pp. 273
Author(s):  
Nayaka Artha Wicesa ◽  
Yon Widiyono ◽  
David Kaluge
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade

Balance of trade has become an essential indicator for economic activities, particularly in countries adopting the open economy. During the last two decades, Indonesia has had trade surplus. The open economy has created dynamics in macroeconomic variables. The purpose of this research is to identify any dynamics between exchange rate, inflation, and balance of trade in Indonesia. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag, this study finds the dynamics between the said variables. In the short run, there are causalities between exchange rate and balance of trade, exchange rate and inflation, and balance of trade and inflation. In addition, J-Curve also occurred in Indonesia, where depreciation in exchange rate gradually improves the country’s balance of trade in the second and fourth quarters. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation, Balance of Trade, Autoregressive Distributed Lag JEL Classification: F1, F4, C1  

scholarly journals Impact of Chinese, Korean and Japanese Innovation Spillover on Labour Productivity in South African Manufacturing

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 16-28
Author(s):  
Brian Tavonga Mazorodze ◽  
Devi Datt Tewari
Keyword(s):  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
International Boundaries

Open economy endogenous growth theories consider physical intermediate imports as a channel through which innovation spreads across international boundaries. We build from this literature and contribute by considering trade in services as the channel through which innovation from China, Korea and Japan influences labour productivity in South Africa’s manufacturing sector between 1995Q1 – 2017Q4. Unlike previous studies, we also compute a composite innovation index using the principal component analysis. Results from the autoregressive distributed lag model are supportive of open economy endogenous growth theories for Japan and Korea. However, for China, the effect is significantly negative adding further concerns over its predatory presence in South Africa.  

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

scholarly journals Investment Portfolio, Democratic Accountability, Poverty and Income Inequality Nexus in Pakistan: A Way to Social Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6411
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahid Hassan ◽  
Haider Mahmood ◽  
Muhammad Ibrahim Saeed ◽  
Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb ◽  
Noman Arshed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Social Sustainability ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run

Institutions help to streamline the economic activity-related procedures, where government intervention might be involved. Institutions also play a significant role in social sustainability. The findings using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to cointegration for the period from 1984–2019 reveal that investment portfolio and democratic accountability reduce poverty in Pakistan both in the long and short run. Moreover, democratic accountability helps to reduce income inequality, but the investment portfolio’s role is not significant. The literacy rate helps to reduce income inequality, and inflation increases poverty and income inequality. The remittances increase income inequality, and urbanization increases poverty. To eradicate poverty and income inequality, the governments should be accountable for their actions to the general public while they remain in power. If they do not deliver as per their manifestoes, they will not be reelected in the next election. Moreover, there is a dire need to redefine the role of an investment portfolio to reduce the risk of investment. So, investments would increase economic activities and could reduce poverty and income inequality. This study contributes to the literature by inquiring about the role of the investment portfolio and democratic accountability in social sustainability by reducing poverty and income inequality. This study only considers Pakistan’s economy due to limitations of poverty data availability in other countries. The scope could further be broadened by accessing data for a wider Asia region to test the role of the investment portfolio and democratic accountability to reduce poverty and income inequality.

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