scholarly journals The Dynamics of Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Trade Balance in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
pp. 273
Author(s):  
Nayaka Artha Wicesa ◽  
Yon Widiyono ◽  
David Kaluge
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade

Balance of trade has become an essential indicator for economic activities, particularly in countries adopting the open economy. During the last two decades, Indonesia has had trade surplus. The open economy has created dynamics in macroeconomic variables. The purpose of this research is to identify any dynamics between exchange rate, inflation, and balance of trade in Indonesia. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag, this study finds the dynamics between the said variables. In the short run, there are causalities between exchange rate and balance of trade, exchange rate and inflation, and balance of trade and inflation. In addition, J-Curve also occurred in Indonesia, where depreciation in exchange rate gradually improves the country’s balance of trade in the second and fourth quarters. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation, Balance of Trade, Autoregressive Distributed Lag JEL Classification: F1, F4, C1  

scholarly journals DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF REMITTANCES ON EXTERNAL RESERVES IN NIGERIA: THE ROLE OF INFLATION AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-141
Author(s):  
E. A. OLUBIYI ◽  
A. RAHEEM ◽  
A. A. ADEMOKOYA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run

This study provides additional information about the drivers of external reserves in Nigeria.  The result using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation approach for the period 1980-2015 shows that remittances, among other macroeconomic variables, increased external reserves in the short run but weakens it in the long run. Remittances depletes external reserves through its effect on inflation rate and the nonsterilized intervention of the Central Bank.  Furthermore, regime shift to relatively floating exchange rate causes remittances to increase reserves.  From the foregoing, it is important for the authorities to continue operating relatively flexible exchange rate, and curtail excessive spending of remittances.   Keywords: , , , , . JEL Classification: F31, F24, C22, F31  

scholarly journals Exchange rate and trade balance: J-curve effect

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavle Petrovic ◽  
Mirjana Gligoric
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Current Account Adjustments

This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen's and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.

scholarly journals Investment Portfolio, Democratic Accountability, Poverty and Income Inequality Nexus in Pakistan: A Way to Social Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6411
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahid Hassan ◽  
Haider Mahmood ◽  
Muhammad Ibrahim Saeed ◽  
Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb ◽  
Noman Arshed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Social Sustainability ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run

Institutions help to streamline the economic activity-related procedures, where government intervention might be involved. Institutions also play a significant role in social sustainability. The findings using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to cointegration for the period from 1984–2019 reveal that investment portfolio and democratic accountability reduce poverty in Pakistan both in the long and short run. Moreover, democratic accountability helps to reduce income inequality, but the investment portfolio’s role is not significant. The literacy rate helps to reduce income inequality, and inflation increases poverty and income inequality. The remittances increase income inequality, and urbanization increases poverty. To eradicate poverty and income inequality, the governments should be accountable for their actions to the general public while they remain in power. If they do not deliver as per their manifestoes, they will not be reelected in the next election. Moreover, there is a dire need to redefine the role of an investment portfolio to reduce the risk of investment. So, investments would increase economic activities and could reduce poverty and income inequality. This study contributes to the literature by inquiring about the role of the investment portfolio and democratic accountability in social sustainability by reducing poverty and income inequality. This study only considers Pakistan’s economy due to limitations of poverty data availability in other countries. The scope could further be broadened by accessing data for a wider Asia region to test the role of the investment portfolio and democratic accountability to reduce poverty and income inequality.

scholarly journals Dollarization in Sierra Leone: Evidence and Some Policy Options

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Abu Bakarr TARAWALIE ◽  
Amadu JALLOH
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Main Determinants

This study aims to empirically investigate the determinants of dollarization in Sierra. It uses quarterly data from 1992Q1 to 2017Q4 and autoregressive distributed lag Bound Testing technique. Both the long and short run results revealed that inflation, exchange rate depreciation, financial deepening and war dummy were the main determinants of dollarization in Sierra Leone during the study period. The error correction term depicts that 53 percent of any disequilibrium in dollarization will be corrected within a year. A key policy recommendation is that policy makers should implement prudent policies that will ensure broader macroeconomic stability (including price stability and exchange rate stability) as a recipe for de-dollarization in Sierra Leone.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NILAI IMPOR KEDELAI INDONESIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aziz Muslim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Soybean Oil ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Government Role ◽  
Short Run

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berbentuk time series, diolah dan dianalisis dengan metode estimasi dan kointegrasi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor kedelai Indonesia dalam jangka pendek adalah impor kedelai sebelumnya, harga kedelai USA, harga minyak kedelai Argentina, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Dalam jangka panjang faktor yang berpengaruh adalah harga minyak kedelai Argentina, PDB Indonesia, dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Kajian ini merekomendasikan bahwa mekanisme pengamanan stok kedelai maupun minyak kedelai bermanfaat untuk menjaga ketersediaan pangan dalam negeri. Peran aktif pemerintah dalam mengamankan stok kedelai nasional serta pengumpulan data-data tentang impor kedelai merupakan tuntutan yang mendesak. Untuk menjaga kestabilan harga dan pasokan kedelai dalam negeri perlu ada upaya untuk mendiversifikasi negara asal impor. The aim of this study is to determine the factors that affect Indonesia’s imports of soybean. The study utilized time series secondary data and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis. The results reveal that in the short run Indonesia’s import of soybean are influenced by Indonesia's soybean imports in the previous year, price of USA’s soybean, Argentina’s soybean oil price, and the Rupiah exchange rate. In the long run Indonesia’s imports of soybean are influenced by Argentina’s soybean oil, Indonesia GDP, and the Rupiah exchange rate. This study recommends that mechanism to maintain soybean stocks demanded is useful for food security.Therefore Government role is important in providing the accurate data on soybean stock, and diversification of the country of origin is crucial to maintain price stability and supply continuity in the country

Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL

2021 ◽  
pp. 245513332110507
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Uche ◽  
Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The dynamic relationship between exchange rate movements (appreciation and depreciation) and macroeconomic fundamentals had preoccupied the minds of researchers across the globe. Consequently, extensive research works have been conducted to unravel the puzzle; however, the findings remain inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these researches may not be unconnected with the choice of model, the omission of key variables and erroneous assumption of symmetric interrelationships of the variables. To mitigate such error and fill the observed research gaps, this study leveraged on the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag to trace the possible asymmetric pass-through of the exchange rate to output growth in Nigeria. The study made use of monthly time series for the period 2000M1–2018M12 for empirical estimations. The empirical findings reveal an asymmetric pass-through from exchange rate to productivity. Exchange rate depreciation led to output retardation in the short run, but neither appreciation nor depreciation of the exchange affected output in the long run. The findings highlight that exchange rate depreciation of the local currency does not improve the country’s productivity. This reveals a disconnection and misalignment between exchange and productivity in Nigeria. The findings call for proper alignment of the Naira exchange rate with the U.S. dollar for improved productivity in the economy.

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURVA J PADA NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN ENAM NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Anggraeni Tri Hapsari ◽  
Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Whether a J curve phenomenon exists or not on the balance of trade has been an interest for empirical investigation in international economics. The phenomenon is typically associated with the response of the balance of trade to the exchange rate dynamics. Since a country has different trade features with different trading partners, the trade balances adjustment to the exchange rate dynamics should be seen as a head to head phenomenon. This paper investigates the effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and its six major trading partners, namely Japan, China, Singapore, United States, South Korea and India on a quarterly basis over the period 1995.1 to 2013.4. The short run and the long run effect of the REER on the balance of trade is expected to be captured using error correction model (ECM) and vector error correction model (VECM). Subsequently, impulse response function is used to trace out the behavior of the bilateral trade balance in response to the REER shock whereas forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decay the effect of innovation variables in the system. The result indicates that in the long run a J curve phenomenon appears on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and Japan, China, Singapore as well as South Korea. In the short run, a J curve phenomenon is seen on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and China as well as Singapore. This confirms that a J curve is a head to head phenomenon that has correlation with the trade features. Thus, the correction mechanism to the trade balance in response to the exchange rate shock (i.e. exchange rate market intervention) should count trade features as a consideration

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Exigent Determinants of Trade Balance in Finland: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-360
Author(s):  
Allah Ditta ◽  
Hafiz Asim ◽  
Hafeez Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

A number of research papers analyzed the factors that may have impacts on the balance of trade for the effective macroeconomic policies but the results of these studies have created ambiguity which implies that further research is needed as the worsening trade balance can limit the economic growth of any country. Hence the current paper is an effort to study the short-run and long-run relationships among trade balance, real effective exchange rate, GDP per capita, urbanization, unemployment and inflation rate for the Finnish economy. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing methodology to co-integration along with error correction mechanism is applied by using time series data from 1990 to 2019 for checking the existence of long-run equilibrium between explained variable and its various determinants. Empirical findings of ARDL show that the long-run relationship among the factors of the estimated model holds. The results indicate that real effective exchange rate, urbanization and inflation are having a significant but negative impact on Finland’s trade balance for both the short-run and long-run while the impacts of GDP per capita and unemployment are significant and positive on the Finish balance of trade. In addition to above, the structural stability of mean and variance of the error term for the estimated ARDL model is verified with the help of CUSUM and CUSUM square graphs. Therefore, a reliable policy measure to improve the balance of trade by encouraging the domestic production and curtailing the imports is suggested in Finland.

Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iffat Zehra ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Imran Umer Chhapra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

scholarly journals Short Term Portfolio Investment and BI Rate: Do They Determine the Stabilization of Rupiah Exchange Rate in Indonesia?

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Chenny Seftarita ◽  
Fitriyani Fitriyani ◽  
Cut Zakia Rizki ◽  
Diana Sapha ◽  
Abd. Jamal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Portfolio Investments

This study aims to investigate the influence of short-term portfolio investments and BI interest rate on fluctuation of rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia. The data used is quarterly data from 2010 to 2016 collected from Indonesia Central Bank. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, the result showed that rupiah exchange rate was strongly influenced by shocks in the private debt securities, joint stock price index, and BI Rate, both in the long run and short run. Moreover, it is found that there was a short-run and long-run balance relationship between Short Term Portfolio Investments and BI rate against the rupiah exchange rate. Thus, it is recommended that in order to stabilize the exchange rate, it is necessary to maintain the stability of short-term portfolio investments.  

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