Study on the Real Estate Bubble Early Warning from the Perspective of System Dynamics

ICCREM 2018 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunbo Li ◽  
Wenting Chen
2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 204-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan Williams ◽  
Zorica Nedovic-Budic

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahim Ullah ◽  
Samad M. E. Sepasgozar

The real estate sector is receiving mix responses throughout the world, with some countries like USA receiving lesser and European and Asia Pacific markets receiving more transactions in recent years. Among the concerning factors, post-purchase regrets by the real estate owners or renters are on the rise, which have never been assessed to date through scholarly research. These regrets can further increase in the time of lockdowns and bans on inspections due to Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and social distancing rules enforced by various countries such as Australia. The current study aims at investigating the key post-purchase regret factors of real estate and property owners and renters over the last decade using published literature and online threads. Based on pertinent literature, 118 systematically identified and text-mined articles, and four online threads with 135 responses, the current study develops system dynamics models to assess and predict the increase in consumers’ regrets over the last decade. Further, a user-generated thread with 23 responses involving seven real estate managers and five agents with more than 20 years of experience, 10 buyers with at least three successful rentals or purchases, and a photographer with more than 10 years of experience, is initiated on five online discussion platforms whereby the respondents are involved in a detailed discussion to highlight the regret reasons specific to real estate purchases based on online information. General architecture for text mining (GATE) software has been utilised to mine the text from both types of threads: Published and user generated. Overall, the articles and threads published over the last decade are studied under two periods: P1 (2010–2014) and P2 (2015–2019) to highlight the post-purchase or rent-related regret reasons. The results show that regret levels of the real estate consumers based on published post-purchase data are at an alarmingly high level of 88%, which compared to 2015, has increased by 18%. Among the major cited reasons, complicated buy–sell process, lack or accuracy of information, housing costs, house size, mortgages, agents, inspections, and emotional decision making are key reasons of regret. Overall, a total of 10% and 8% increases have occurred in the regrets related to the buy–sell process and lack of inspections, respectively. On the other hand, regrets related to agents and housing costs have decreased drastically by 40% mainly due to the good return on investments in the growing markets. However, based on the current trend of over reliance on online information and more powers to the agents controlling online information coupled with lack of physical inspections, the situation can change anytime. Similarly, lack of information, housing size, and mortgage-related regrets have also decreased by 7%, 5%, and 2%, respectively, since 2019. The results are expected to encourage policy level changes for addressing the regrets and uplifting the real estate industry and moving towards a smart and sustainable real estate sector. These results and pertinent discussions may help the real estate decision makers to uplift the current state, move towards a smart real estate, and avoid futuristic regrets, especially in the COVID-hit environment where most of the industries are struggling to survive. Careful attention is required to the top regret factors identified in the study by the real estate managers, investors, and agents to pave the way for a more managed real estate and property sector whereby the consumers are more satisfied with the value they receive for their money. This win–win situation will enhance the property business and remove the stigmas of intentional and deliberate withholding of information by managers and agents from the property and real estate sectors that can help boost the business through more purchases and satisfaction of its customers.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-182
Author(s):  
Fernando Miguel García Martín ◽  
Marcos Ros Sempere ◽  
María José Silvente Martínez

The 'prodigious decade' of Spanish urbanism caused a large expansion of urban lands, but also a much greater amount of planned but undeveloped land. The planning for this 'expectant city' is a challenge for the future of our cities. In this work, the streets proposed in these plans are analysed by evaluating their dimensional characteristics (surface and width) and their habitability (pedestrian-cyclist space and previsions of tree lines). The research is focused on the city of Murcia, paradigmatic case of the expansive urbanism typical of the real estate bubble. We have studied 2,096 streets from 92 partial plans approved during the period 2002-2013. The results show how the analysed variables change according to the use and density of the sectors and can be useful to evaluate the improvement of the habitability of these streets before their execution.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre ◽  
Francisco J. Lozano ◽  
Javier E. Contreras-Reyes

In this paper, we approached the concept of real estate bubble, analyzing the risk its bursting could generate for the Chilean financial market. Specifically, we analyzed the relationship between real housing prices, the economic activity index, and mortgage interest rates denominated in inflation-linked units from 1994 to 2020. The analysis was based on a second order Markov switching model with the predetermined variables mentioned later, whose parameters were obtained through the expectation–maximization algorithm. Then, we built a probability index as early warning indicator for potential imbalances in the real estate price that could put financial market stability at risk. The indicator is important to evaluate economic policy calibrations in time. A main finding was that the real housing price had a non-linear relationship with economic activity and the mortgage interest rate. Therefore, the evolution of the real estate price has been consistent with fundamental macroeconomic variables, even under a high growth regime, with increases above 12% per year. About 92% of housing price variability derived from changing macrofinancial conditions, suggesting a low margin of speculative behavior.


Author(s):  
Julián Mora Aliseda ◽  
Jacinto Garrido Velarde ◽  
Consuelo Mora

The crisis that shook the global financial institutions in 2007/08 revealed the weaknesses and irrationalities of a system that led millions of people, without compatible returns, to the category of “owners” of their home. During the previous decade, the absurd growth of supply in parallel with the progressive increase in real estate value, made housing “the hen of the golden eggs” of the regional and national economy: banks earn with a credit and families with the valuation of homes. This chapter examines the economic context in the crack of the real estate bubble and analyzes as a practical case the incidents of this crisis at international level in the border region of Extremadura.


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