A generic, empirical-based model for predicting rate of fire spread in shrublands

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendy R. Anderson ◽  
Miguel G. Cruz ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Lachlan McCaw ◽  
Jose Antonio Vega ◽  
...  

A shrubland fire behaviour dataset was assembled using data from experimental studies in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and South Africa. The dataset covers a wide range of heathlands and shrubland species associations and vegetation structures. Three models for rate of spread are developed using 2-m wind speed, a wind reduction factor, elevated dead fuel moisture content and either vegetation height (with or without live fuel moisture content) or bulk density. The models are tested against independent data from prescribed fires and wildfires and found to predict fire spread rate within acceptable limits (mean absolute errors varying between 3.5 and 9.1 m min–1). A simple model to predict dead fuel moisture content is evaluated, and an ignition line length correction is proposed. Although the model can be expected to provide robust predictions of rate of spread in a broad range of shrublands, the effects of slope steepness and variation in fuel quantity and composition are yet to be quantified. The model does not predict threshold conditions for continuous fire spread, and future work should focus on identifying fuel and weather factors that control transitions in fire behaviour.

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Hermínio S. Botelho ◽  
Francisco C. Rego ◽  
Carlos Loureiro

An experimental burning program took place in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Portugal to increase the understanding of surface fire behaviour under mild weather. The spread rate and flame geometry of the forward and backward sections of a line-ignited fire front were measured in 94 plots 10–15 m wide. Measured head fire rate of spread, flame length and Byram’s fire intensity varied respectively in the intervals of 0.3–13.9 m min–1, 0.1–4.2 m and 30–3527 kW m–1. Fire behaviour was modelled through an empirical approach. Rate of forward fire spread was described as a function of surface wind speed, terrain slope, moisture content of fine dead surface fuel, and fuel height, while back fire spread rate was correlated with fuel moisture content and cover of understorey vegetation. Flame dimensions were related to Byram’s fire intensity but relationships with rate of spread and fine dead surface fuel load and moisture are preferred, particularly for the head fire. The equations are expected to be more reliable when wind speed and slope are less than 8 km h–1 and 15°, and when fuel moisture content is higher than 12%. The results offer a quantitative basis for prescribed fire management.


2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. eSC08 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos G. Rossa ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes

Aim of study: To reconcile the effects of live fuel moisture content (FMC) on fire rate of spread (ROS) derived from laboratory and field fires.Methods: The analysis builds on evidence from previous fire-spread experimental studies and on a comparison between two functions for the FMC damping effect: one derived from field burns, based on dead FMC, and another derived from laboratory trials, based on a weighted FMC (dead and live fuels).Main results: In a typical Mediterranean shrubland, laboratory and field-derived FMC damping functions are linearly related, which is explained by the correlation between monthly average live and dead FMC variation throughout the year. This clarifies why the effect of live FMC on real-world fires ROS has remained elusive.Research highlights: By providing evidence that the most significant effect of FMC on ROS is independent of vegetation phenology (dead or live condition), and explaining why in specific situations dead FMC is sufficient to provide satisfactory ROS predictions, our results can assist future modelling efforts.


2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 883-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos G. Rossa ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes

A laboratory experimental program addressing fire spread in fuel beds composed of dead foliage litter and vertically placed quasi-live branches, representative of many natural fuel complexes, was carried out for either still-air or wind conditions. Fuel-bed characteristics, fire spread rate, flame geometry, and fuel consumption were assessed and empirical models for estimating several parameters were developed. Weighted fuel moisture content (18%–163%) provided good estimates of fire-behaviour characteristics and accounted for most of the variation in still-air and wind-driven spread rate (0.1–1.3 m·min−1). When predicting still-air fire spread rate, fuel height was the most relevant fuel-bed structural parameter and fuel type had significant influence, whereas for wind-driven spread, the effect of foliar fuel-bed density was dominant and fuel type became irrelevant. Flame length (0.4–2.2 m) increased from still-air to wind-assisted (8 km·h−1) fire spread, but its height remained constant. The fraction of total fuel load and mean woody fuel diameter consumed by fire were reasonably predicted from weighted fuel moisture content alone, but predictions for the latter variable improved substantially by adding foliar fuel load.


2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Burrows ◽  
Malcolm Gill ◽  
Jason Sharples

Large wildfires are common in spinifex grasslands of arid Australia. Threat mitigation measures including fire preparedness, prescribed burning and wildfire suppression are greatly enhanced by the ability to predict fire behaviour. The new spinifex fire behaviour model presented here was developed and validated from 186 experimental fires across a wide range of fuel and weather conditions. Because spinifex fuels are discontinuous, modelling is a two-step process; once ignition is achieved, the first step is to determine the likelihood of fire spread, which is dependent on conditions of wind speed, fuel cover and fuel moisture content. If spread thresholds are met, the second step is to predict rate of spread and flame height using the same three independent variables. Thirty-six of the 186 experimental fires not used in modelling were used to validate the model, which proved to be reasonably accurate and an improvement on the previous model.


2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos G. Rossa ◽  
Ricardo Veloso ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes

Observational evidence of an effect of live vegetation moisture content on fire spread rate remains extremely scarce despite the significance of fire activity in fuel complexes dominated by live components. This study assessed the moisture content effect of quasi-live fuels on fire spread rates measured in laboratory experiments. Fuel beds were built by vertically placing vegetation clippings to reproduce the natural upright fuel structure. The fuel drying process during storage resulted in a wide moisture content range (13–180%). An exponential damping function was fitted to rate of spread observations in four fuel types, indicating that rate of spread is halved by an increase in live moisture content from 50 to 180%. This effect, especially at higher moisture contents, was weaker than that predicted by theoretical formulations and from studies in mixtures of dead and live fuel.


2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambarish Dahale ◽  
Selina Ferguson ◽  
Babak Shotorban ◽  
Shankar Mahalingam

Formulation of a physics-based model, capable of predicting fire spread through a single elevated crown-like shrub, is described in detail. Predictions from the model, obtained by numerical solutions to governing equations of fluid dynamics, combustion, heat transfer and thermal degradation of solid fuel, are found to be in fairly good agreement with experimental results. In this study we utilise the physics-based model to explore the importance of two parameters – the spatial variation of solid fuel bulk density and the solid fuel moisture content – on the burning of an isolated shrub in quiescent atmosphere. The results suggest that vertical fire spread rate within an isolated shrub and the time to initiate ignition within the crown are two global parameters significantly affected when the spatial variation of the bulk density or the variation of fuel moisture content is taken into account. The amount of fuel burnt is another parameter affected by varying fuel moisture content, especially in the cases of fire propagating through solid fuel with moisture content exceeding 40%. The specific mechanisms responsible for the reduction in propagation speed in the presence of higher bulk densities and moisture content are identified.


2014 ◽  
pp. 353-359
Author(s):  
Anita Pinto ◽  
Juncal Espinosa-Prieto ◽  
Carlos Rossa ◽  
Stuart Matthews ◽  
Carlos Loureiro ◽  
...  

1995 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Gillon ◽  
V Gomendy ◽  
C Houssard ◽  
J Marechal ◽  
JC Valette

The aim of this study was to assess the effects on combustion characteristics, and their consequences on nutrient losses, of (1) the change in load and packing ratio of the fuel bed, and (2) the change in fuel moisture content. Eighty-one experimental burns were carried out, on a test bench in the laboratory; the fuel was composed of needles and twigs of Pinus pinaster. Two levels of fuel load an dpacking ratio (8t ha-1 needles, packing ratio of 0.040; and 16t ha-1 twigs and needles, packing ratio of 0.066) were compared at constant moisture content (6%); and four levels of moisture content(6%, 12%, 24% and 30% dry weight) were compared at constant fuel load (8t ha-1 needles). At constant moisture content, an increase in the load and packing ratio of the fuel bed led to an increase in the height of flames and in the maximum temperature 25 cm above the fuel bed, in the duration of the rise in temperatures within the fuel, and in the fireline intensity. Conversely, the rate of fire spread decreased. At constant fuel load, an increase in the moisture content of the fuel led to a decrease in the rate of fire spread, in the flame height and the maximum temperature 25 cm above the fuel bed, and in the fireline intensity. In contrast, the maximum temperatures reached within the fuel, when the flaming front was continuous, did not significantly change with varying fuel loads or fuel moisture contents. The percentage fuel consumption was always high, more than 80%, but it significantly decreased with increasing fuel load and packing ratio and with increasing moisture content. Total losses of N, S, and K significantly decreased with increasing fuel load and packing ratio, with increasing moisture content and with decreasing percentage fuel consumption. Losses in P only significantly decreased with increasing fuel load and packing ratio. Losses in Mg and Ca were not significantly affected by fuel load, moisture content. or percentage consumption. An attempt was made to separate volatile from particulate losses, based on the assumption that all the losses of Ca were in particulate form. Whereas losses in particulate form remained relatively constant, losses of nutrients in volatile form seem to have been related to the percentage fuel consumption. Even if these experimental burns were of low intensity (40 to 56 kW m-1), their impact, in terms of lethal temperatures and nutrient losses, was not negligible, particularly for N and P. The increasing fireline intensity with increasing fuel load was not accompanied by an enhancement in the proportion of nutrient losses. In the same way, the strong decrease in fireline intensity with increasing fuel moisture content led only to a slight decrease in some nutrient losses. It was through their effect on the percentage fuel consumption that fuel load or moisture content modified the nutrient losses, particularly volatile losses.


Fire ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Anne-Claude Pepin ◽  
Mike Wotton

Parks Canada, in collaboration with Nova Scotia Lands and Forests and Natural Resources Canada, documented shrub fire behaviour in multiple plots burned over two periods: a spring period in June 2014 and a summer period in July 2017. The study area, located within Cape Breton Highlands National Park, comprised fifteen burn units (20 m by 20 m in size). Each unit was ignited by line ignition and burned under a wide range of conditions. Pre-burn fuel characteristics were measured across the site and used to estimate pre-fire fuel load and post-fire fuel consumption. This fuel complex was similar to many flammable shrub types around the world, results show that this shrub fuel type had high elevated fuel loads (3.17 ± 0.84 kg/m2) composed of exposed live and dead stunted black spruce as well as ericaceous shrubs, mainly Kalmia angustifolia (evergreen) and Rhodora canadensis (deciduous). Data show that the dead moisture content in this fuel complex is systematically lower than expected from the traditional relationship between FFMC and moisture content in the Canadian Fire Weather Index System but was statistically correlated with Equilibrium Moisture Content. A significant inverse relationship between bulk density and fire rate of spread was observed as well as a clear seasonal effect between the spring burns and the summer burns, which is likely attributable to the increase in bulk density in the summer. Unlike most shrub research, wind and dead moisture content did not have a statistically significant association with fire spread rates. However, we believe this to be due to noise in wind data and small dataset. Rate of spread as high as 14 m/min and flame lengths over 4 m were recorded under Initial Spread Index values of 6.4 and relative humidity of 54%. A comparison with a number of well-known shrubland spread rate prediction models was made. An aid to operational fire prediction behaviour is proposed, using a fuel type from the Canadian Fire Prediction System (O-1b) and a modified estimate of fuel moisture of the elevated fuel in the fuel complex.


2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly A. Perryman ◽  
Christopher J. Dugaw ◽  
J. Morgan Varner ◽  
Diane L. Johnson

In spite of considerable effort to predict wildland fire behaviour, the effects of firebrand lift-off, the ignition of resulting spot fires and their effects on fire spread, remain poorly understood. We developed a cellular automata model integrating key mathematical models governing current fire spread models with a recently developed model that estimates firebrand landing patterns. Using our model we simulated a wildfire in an idealised Pinus ponderosa ecosystem. Varying values of wind speed, surface fuel loading, surface fuel moisture content and canopy base height, we investigated two scenarios: (i) the probability of a spot fire igniting beyond fuelbreaks of various widths and (ii) how spot fires directly affect the overall surface fire’s rate of spread. Results were averages across 2500 stochastic simulations. In both scenarios, canopy base height and surface fuel loading had a greater influence than wind speed and surface fuel moisture content. The expected rate of spread with spot fires occurring approached a constant value over time, which ranged between 6 and 931% higher than the predicted surface fire rate of spread. Incorporation of the role of spot fires in wildland fire spread should be an important thrust of future decision-support technologies.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document