The Fiscal Burden of Wildfires: State Expenditures and Funding Mechanisms for Wildfire Suppression in the Western U.S. and Implications for Federal Policy

The number and size of wildfires in the western United States have increased dramatically in the last 30 years. The rising cost of wildfire suppression has become a significant concern for all levels of government, although most attention has been focused on the federal level. Much less is known about the financial impact of expenditures on states, which retain responsibility for suppression on over 480 million acres of state and private forests. This study collected data on state expenditures for wildfire suppression in the western United States from 2005 to 2015 to examine fiscal burdens and compare funding mechanisms used to cover those costs. Our analysis finds that western states expended $11.9 billion on wildfire suppression over the 11-year period and used own-source funds to cover 88 percent of these costs. States displayed a variety of mechanisms for covering their cost obligations with tradeoffs that may affect non-wildfire policy priorities.

Is This Flight Necessary? The Aviation Use Summary (AUS): A Framework for Strategic, Risk-Informed Aviation Decision Support

Across the globe, aircraft that apply water and suppressants during active wildfires play key roles in wildfire suppression, and these suppression resources can be highly effective. In the United States, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) aircraft account for a substantial portion of firefighting expense and higher fatality rates compared to ground resources. Existing risk management practices that are fundamental to aviation safety (e.g., routinely asking, “Is this flight necessary?”) may not be appropriately scaled from a risk management perspective to ensure that the tactical use of aircraft is in clear alignment with a wildfire’s incident strategy and with broader agency and interagency fire management goals and objectives. To improve strategic risk management of aviation assets in wildfire suppression, we present a framework demonstrating a risk-informed strategic aviation decision support system, the Aviation Use Summary (AUS). This tool utilizes aircraft event tracking data, existing geospatial datasets, and emerging analytics to summarize incident-scale aircraft use and guide decision makers through a strategic risk management process. This information has the potential to enrich the decision space of the decision maker and supports programmatic transparency, enhanced learning, and a broader level of accountability.

An Integrated Decision Support System for Improving Wildfire Suppression Management

Wildfires are expected to increase in number, extent, and severity due to climate change. Hence, it is ever more important to integrate technological developments and scientific knowledge into fire management aiming at protecting lives, infrastructure, and the environment. In this paper, a decision support system (DSS) adapted to the Portuguese context and based on multi-sensor technologies and geographic information system (GIS) functionalities is proposed to leverage operational data, enabling faster and more informed decisions to reduce the impact of wildfires. Here we present a flexible and reconfigurable DSS composed of three components: an ArcGIS online feature service that provides operational data and enables a collaborative environment of users that share operational data in near real-time; a mobile client application to interact with the system, enabling the use of GIS technology and visualization dashboards; and a multi-sensor device that collects field data providing value to external services. The design and validation of this system benefitted from the feedback of wildfire management specialists and a partnership with an end-user in the municipality of Mação that also helped establish the system requirements. The validation results demonstrated that a robust system was achieved with fully interoperable components that fulfill the defined system requirements.

Assessment of Ponderosa Pine Vigor Using Four-Band Aerial Imagery in South Central Oregon: Crown Objects to Landscapes

Ponderosa pine is an integral part of the forested landscape in the western US; it is the dominant tree species on landscapes that provide critical ecosystem services. Moderate drought tolerance allows it to occupy the transition zone between forests, open woodlands, and grasslands. Increases in stand density resulting from wildfire suppression, combined with lengthening, intensifying, and more frequent droughts have resulted in reduced tree vigor and stand health in dry ponderosa pine throughout its range. To address a management need for efficient landscape-level surveys of forest health, we used Random Forests to develop an object-oriented classification of individual tree crowns (ITCs) into vigor classes using existing, agency-acquired four-band aerial imagery. Classes of tree vigor were based on quantitative physiological and morphological attributes established in a previous study. We applied our model across a landscape dominated by ponderosa pine with a variety of forest treatments to assess their impacts on tree vigor and stand health. We found that stands that were both thinned and burned had the lowest proportion of low-vigor ITCs, and that stands treated before the 2014–2016 drought had lower proportions of low-vigor ITCs than stands treated more recently (2016). Upland stands had significantly higher proportions of low-vigor trees than lowland stands. Maps identifying the low-vigor ITCs would assist managers in identifying priority stands for treatment and marking trees for harvest or retention. These maps can be created using already available imagery and GIS software.

Assessment of Ponderosa Pine Vigor Using 4-Band Aerial Imagery in South Central Oregon: Crown Objects to Landscapes

Ponderosa pine is an integral part of the forested landscape in the western US; it is the dominant tree species on landscapes that provide critical ecosystem services. Moderate drought tolerance allows it to occupy the transition zone between forests and open woodlands and grasslands. Increases in stand density resulting from wildfire suppression, combined with lengthening, intensifying and more frequent droughts have resulted in reduced tree vigor and stand health in dry ponderosa pine throughout its range. To address a management need for efficient landscape-level surveys of forest health, we used Random Forests to develop an object-oriented classification of individual tree crowns (ITCs) into vigor classes using existing, agency acquired 4-band aerial imagery. Classes of tree vigor were based on quantitative physiological and morphological attributes established in a previous study. We applied our model across a landscape dominated by ponderosa pine with a variety of forest treatments to assess their impacts on tree vigor and stand health. We found that stands that were both thinned and burned had the lowest proportion of low vigor ITCs, and that stands treated before the 2014-2016 drought had lower proportions of low vigor ITCs than stands treated more recently (2016). Upland stands had significantly higher proportions of low vigor trees than lowland stands. Maps identifying the low vigor ITCs would assist managers in identifying priority stands for treatment and marking trees for harvest or retention. These maps can be created using already available imagery and GIS software.

Community voices as agents of change: 2018 wildfire experiences in the southside

This thesis examines the 2018 wildfire season in Cheslatta Carrier Nation territory through the lived experiences of community members. It details how sustained wildfire suppression contributed to changes to the social, political and the physical landscape. Using a qualitative methodology and ten semi-structured interviews with community members, it describes how historic events, including flooding and forced relocation, shaped the ways community members felt about wildfires and their management. This research found that the 2018 wildfire season impacted Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in physical, economic, and spiritual ways. The loss of timber and livelihoods as well as displacement due to evacuation orders were challenging. While many individuals felt disempowered by the wildfires and their management, wildfire was also a catalyst for political and social change. This thesis explores the ways that wildfires can unite, divide, and transform individuals and communities.

Performance Evaluation of an Operational Rapid Response Fire Spread Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean (Greece)

The current work presents the operational implementation and evaluation of a rapid response fire spread forecasting system, named IRIS, that was developed to provide support to the tactical wildfire suppression activities of the Hellenic Fire Corps. The system was operationally employed during the 2019 fire season in Greece, providing on-demand wildfire spread predictions for 17 incidents. Satellite remote sensing data were employed for quantitatively assessing IRIS’s predictions for eight selected events. Our results suggest an overall satisfactory model performance. More importantly, this study demonstrates that, as coupled fire-atmosphere modeling becomes an increasingly popular approach, the respective models have great potential to support operational agencies and wildfire managers during the incident phase.