Empirical modelling of surface fire behaviour in maritime pine stands

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Hermínio S. Botelho ◽  
Francisco C. Rego ◽  
Carlos Loureiro
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

An experimental burning program took place in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Portugal to increase the understanding of surface fire behaviour under mild weather. The spread rate and flame geometry of the forward and backward sections of a line-ignited fire front were measured in 94 plots 10–15 m wide. Measured head fire rate of spread, flame length and Byram’s fire intensity varied respectively in the intervals of 0.3–13.9 m min–1, 0.1–4.2 m and 30–3527 kW m–1. Fire behaviour was modelled through an empirical approach. Rate of forward fire spread was described as a function of surface wind speed, terrain slope, moisture content of fine dead surface fuel, and fuel height, while back fire spread rate was correlated with fuel moisture content and cover of understorey vegetation. Flame dimensions were related to Byram’s fire intensity but relationships with rate of spread and fine dead surface fuel load and moisture are preferred, particularly for the head fire. The equations are expected to be more reliable when wind speed and slope are less than 8 km h–1 and 15°, and when fuel moisture content is higher than 12%. The results offer a quantitative basis for prescribed fire management.

Fuel-related fire-behaviour relationships for mixed live and dead fuels burned in the laboratory

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 883-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos G. Rossa ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Experimental Program ◽  
Structural Parameter ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Type ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

A laboratory experimental program addressing fire spread in fuel beds composed of dead foliage litter and vertically placed quasi-live branches, representative of many natural fuel complexes, was carried out for either still-air or wind conditions. Fuel-bed characteristics, fire spread rate, flame geometry, and fuel consumption were assessed and empirical models for estimating several parameters were developed. Weighted fuel moisture content (18%–163%) provided good estimates of fire-behaviour characteristics and accounted for most of the variation in still-air and wind-driven spread rate (0.1–1.3 m·min−1). When predicting still-air fire spread rate, fuel height was the most relevant fuel-bed structural parameter and fuel type had significant influence, whereas for wind-driven spread, the effect of foliar fuel-bed density was dominant and fuel type became irrelevant. Flame length (0.4–2.2 m) increased from still-air to wind-assisted (8 km·h−1) fire spread, but its height remained constant. The fraction of total fuel load and mean woody fuel diameter consumed by fire were reasonably predicted from weighted fuel moisture content alone, but predictions for the latter variable improved substantially by adding foliar fuel load.

A generic, empirical-based model for predicting rate of fire spread in shrublands

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendy R. Anderson ◽  
Miguel G. Cruz ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Lachlan McCaw ◽  
Jose Antonio Vega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Vegetation Height ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

A shrubland fire behaviour dataset was assembled using data from experimental studies in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and South Africa. The dataset covers a wide range of heathlands and shrubland species associations and vegetation structures. Three models for rate of spread are developed using 2-m wind speed, a wind reduction factor, elevated dead fuel moisture content and either vegetation height (with or without live fuel moisture content) or bulk density. The models are tested against independent data from prescribed fires and wildfires and found to predict fire spread rate within acceptable limits (mean absolute errors varying between 3.5 and 9.1 m min–1). A simple model to predict dead fuel moisture content is evaluated, and an ignition line length correction is proposed. Although the model can be expected to provide robust predictions of rate of spread in a broad range of shrublands, the effects of slope steepness and variation in fuel quantity and composition are yet to be quantified. The model does not predict threshold conditions for continuous fire spread, and future work should focus on identifying fuel and weather factors that control transitions in fire behaviour.

A laboratory-based quantification of the effect of live fuel moisture content on fire spread rate

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos G. Rossa ◽  
Ricardo Veloso ◽  
Paulo M. Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Drying Process ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Live Fuels ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
Content Range

Observational evidence of an effect of live vegetation moisture content on fire spread rate remains extremely scarce despite the significance of fire activity in fuel complexes dominated by live components. This study assessed the moisture content effect of quasi-live fuels on fire spread rates measured in laboratory experiments. Fuel beds were built by vertically placing vegetation clippings to reproduce the natural upright fuel structure. The fuel drying process during storage resulted in a wide moisture content range (13–180%). An exponential damping function was fitted to rate of spread observations in four fuel types, indicating that rate of spread is halved by an increase in live moisture content from 50 to 180%. This effect, especially at higher moisture contents, was weaker than that predicted by theoretical formulations and from studies in mixtures of dead and live fuel.

A cellular automata model to link surface fires to firebrand lift-off and dispersal

2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly A. Perryman ◽  
Christopher J. Dugaw ◽  
J. Morgan Varner ◽  
Diane L. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Loading ◽  
Cellular Automata Model ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
Spot Fires

In spite of considerable effort to predict wildland fire behaviour, the effects of firebrand lift-off, the ignition of resulting spot fires and their effects on fire spread, remain poorly understood. We developed a cellular automata model integrating key mathematical models governing current fire spread models with a recently developed model that estimates firebrand landing patterns. Using our model we simulated a wildfire in an idealised Pinus ponderosa ecosystem. Varying values of wind speed, surface fuel loading, surface fuel moisture content and canopy base height, we investigated two scenarios: (i) the probability of a spot fire igniting beyond fuelbreaks of various widths and (ii) how spot fires directly affect the overall surface fire’s rate of spread. Results were averages across 2500 stochastic simulations. In both scenarios, canopy base height and surface fuel loading had a greater influence than wind speed and surface fuel moisture content. The expected rate of spread with spot fires occurring approached a constant value over time, which ranged between 6 and 931% higher than the predicted surface fire rate of spread. Incorporation of the role of spot fires in wildland fire spread should be an important thrust of future decision-support technologies.

Using fuel and weather variables to predict the sustainability of surface fire spread in maritime pine stands

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Hermínio Botelho ◽  
Francisco Rego ◽  
Carlos Loureiro
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Maritime Pine ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fuel Type ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Pinus Pinaster Ait ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Thresholds for surface fire spread were examined in maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in northern Portugal. Fire sustainability was assessed after ignition of 2 m fire lines or in larger burns conducted in 10–15 m wide plots. The experiments were carried out from November to June in three fuel types: litter, litter plus shrubs, and litter with a nonwoody understorey. Moisture content of fine dead fuels, on-site weather variables, and descriptors of the fuel complex all had a highly significant influence on the probability of self-sustaining fire spread. A logistic model based solely on fuel moisture content correctly classified the fire sustainability status of 88% of the observations. Nonetheless, the subjectivity of the moisture of extinction concept was apparent, and further accuracy was achieved by the consecutive addition of fire spread direction (forward or backward), fuel type, and ambient temperature. Fully sustained fire spread, in opposition to marginal burns with broken fire fronts, was similarly dependent on fuel moisture but was affected also by fire spread direction and time since rain. The models can benefit fire research and fire management operations but can be made more practical if integrated in a fire danger rating system.

Flame characteristics, temperature - time curves, and rate of spread in fires propagating in a bed of Pinus pinaster needles

2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 67 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. C. Mendes-Lopes ◽  
João M. P. Ventura ◽  
José M. P. Amaral
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Pinus Pinaster ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Propagation Models ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Rate Of Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content ◽  
Flame Angle

An extensive set of experiments was carried out in order to collect data to validate fire propagation models being developed in the context of an European research project. The experiments were performed in a dedicated burning tray (2.0 m × 0.70 m working section), where wind velocity, fuel moisture content and slope were varied to study fire propagation in beds of Pinus pinaster needles. All the runs were videotaped and, from the recordings, information on flame geometry (i.e. flame height, flame length and flame angle) and rate of spread was obtained. Temperature measurements were also carried out by a small tower of six thermocouples at different heights above the fuel bed. Results show that headfire rate of spread increases steeply with wind speed for wind-driven fires but does not depend on wind speed for backing fire spread rates. Rate of spread increases slightly with slope for up-hill propagation, and is not slope dependent for down-hill cases. Rate of spread decreases when fuel moisture content increases. Flame angle and flame height are also dependent on wind velocity, slope, and fuel moisture content. The importance of temperature for fire propagation is discussed, emphasizing the role of radiation heat transfer in the process. Correlations between temperature and other indicators of fire behaviour (namely the rate of spread) are presented. Results are discussed and compared. The results obtained provide a good database for the assessment of fire propagation models.

scholarly journals Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990 - 2007. 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew L. Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Physical Nature ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Computational Power ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

In recent years, advances in computational power have led to an increase in attempts to model the behaviour of wildland fires and to simulate their spread across landscape. The present series of articles endeavours to comprehensively survey and précis all types of surface fire spread models developed during the period 1990–2007. The current paper surveys models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature. These models are based on the statistical analysis of experimentally obtained data with or without some physical framework for the basis of the relations. Other papers in the series review models of a physical or quasi-physical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. The main relations of empirical models are those of wind speed and fuel moisture content with rate of forward spread. The focus of the discussion is on the treatment of the wind speed and fuel moisture functions by the models.

scholarly journals A generic fuel moisture content attenuation factor for fire spread rate empirical models

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. e009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos G. Rossa
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Attenuation Factor ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Ignition Energy ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Damping Effect ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Aim of study: To develop a fuel moisture content (FMC) attenuation factor for empirical forest fire spread rate (ROS) models in general fire propagation conditions.Methods: The development builds on the assumption that the main FMC-damping effect is a function of fuel ignition energy needs.Main results: The generic FMC attenuation factor was successfully used to derive ROS models from laboratory tests (n = 282) of fire spread in no-wind and no-slope, slope-, and wind-aided conditions. The ability to incorporate the FMC attenuation factor in existing field-based ROS models for shrubland fires and grassland wildfires (n = 123) was also positively assessed.Research highlights: Establishing a priori the FMC-effect in field fires benefits the proper assessment of the remaining variables influence, which is normally eluded by heterogeneity in fuel bed properties and correlated fuel descriptors.

scholarly journals Live Fuel Moisture Content: The ‘Pea Under the Mattress’ of Fire Spread Rate Modeling?

Fire ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Rossa ◽  
Paulo Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
High Heat ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Live Fuels ◽  
Live Fuel Moisture ◽  
Live Tree ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Currently, there is a dispute on whether live fuel moisture content (FMC) should be accounted for when predicting a real-world fire-spread rate (RoS). The laboratory and field data results are conflicting: laboratory trials show a significant effect of live FMC on RoS, which has not been convincingly detected in the field. It has been suggested that the lack of influence of live FMC on RoS might arise from differences in the ignition of dead and live fuels: flammability trials using live leaves subjected to high heat fluxes (80–140 kW m−2) show that ignition occurs before all of the moisture is vaporized. We analyze evidence from recent studies, and hypothesize that differences in the ignition mechanisms between dead and live fuels do not preclude the use of overall fine FMC for attaining acceptable RoS predictions. We refer to a simple theory that consists of two connected hypotheses to explain why the effect of live FMC on field fires RoS has remained elusive so far: H1, live tree foliage FMC remains fairly constant over the year; and H2, the seasonal variation of live shrubs’ FMC correlates with the average dead FMC. As a result, the effect of live FMC is not easily detected by statistical analysis.

Assessing the probability of sustained flaming in masticated fuel beds

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.J. Schiks ◽  
B.M. Wotton
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Field Testing ◽  
Behavior Modeling ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fuel Moisture Content

Mechanical mastication is increasingly used as a fuel management treatment to reduce fire risk at the wildland–urban interface, although ignition and fire behaviour in these novel fuel beds are poorly understood. We investigated the influence of observed fuel moisture content, wind speed, and firebrand size on the probability of sustained flaming of masticated fuel beds under both laboratory and field settings. Logistic regression techniques were applied to assess the probability of sustained flaming in both datasets. Models for the field were also developed using estimated moisture from three sets of weather-based models: (i) the hourly Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, (ii) the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) moisture estimates for 1 h and 10 h fuels, and (iii) a masticated surface fuel moisture model (MAST). In both laboratory and field testing, the likelihood of a successful ignition increased with decreasing moisture content and increasing wind speed; the effect of firebrand size was only apparent in laboratory testing. The FFMC, NFDRS, and MAST predictions had somewhat reduced discriminative power relative to direct moisture in predicting the probability of sustained flaming based on our field observations. Our results speak to the disparity between the fire behaviour modeling that occurs in the laboratory and the fire behavior modeling that occurs in the field, as the methodology permitted comparison of predictions from sustained flaming models that were developed for one experimental setting and applied to the other.

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