scholarly journals Investor memory of past performance is positively biased and predicts overconfidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (36) ◽  
pp. e2026680118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Walters ◽  
Philip M. Fernbach
Keyword(s):  
Recent Past ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Memory Biases ◽  
Trading Frequency ◽  
Incentive Compatible

We document a memory-based mechanism associated with investor overconfidence. In Studies 1 and 2, investors were asked to recall their most important trades in the recent past and then reported investing confidence and trading frequency. After the study, they looked up and reported the actual returns of these trades. In both studies, investors were biased to recall returns as higher than achieved, and larger memory biases were associated with greater overconfidence and trading frequency. The design of Study 2 allowed us to separately investigate the effects of two types of memory biases: distortion and selective forgetting. Both types of bias were present and were independently associated with overconfidence and trading frequency. Study 3 was an incentive-compatible experiment in which overconfidence and trading frequency were reduced when participants looked up previous consequential trades compared to when they reported them from memory.

Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

PsycCRITIQUES ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean Keith Simonton
Keyword(s):  
Past Performance

Remembering Peaks and Ends: Memory Biases in Experience-Based Risky Decisions

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elliot A. Ludvig ◽  
Christopher R. Madan ◽  
Marcia L. Spetch
Keyword(s):  
Memory Biases ◽  
Risky Decisions

PENGARUH FREKUENSI PERDAGANGAN PADA SEKTOR PROPERTY DAN REAL ESTATE TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Adri Wihananto
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Trading ◽  
Trading Frequency ◽  
Important Thing ◽  
Know How ◽  
Stock Value ◽  
Measuring Frequency ◽  
Case Based

Trading frequency can be said as the implementation from trader of commerce. This case based on positive or negative trader reaction given by trader information.  Stock trading in BEI always fluctuate with price of volume value and frequency particularly. Frequency itself shows the company  involved or not. In trading frequency, if the indicator frequency it self shown the higher point, it means better. In spite of the most important thing is how the fluctuation or value conversion itself. On the frequencies we also could see which stocks is interested by the investor. When trading frequency high, it  may be create sense of interest from investors.The aim of this research, in order to know how far the effect of trading frequency (X) with stock value (Y) using cover stock value. The information used is begin 2008 with sample from twelve property and real estate companies. According to the research can be conclude from twelve companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2008, 75 % of trading frequency samples doesn’t have signification degree between trading frequency and stock value. This case can be explained count on smaller than t tableEvaluation of this research is the trading measuring frequency at property sector and real estate not influence to stock priceKeywords : Trading Frequency, Stock Price 

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Decision Rule Selection

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Laver ◽  
Ernest Sergenti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Rule ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Party System ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Survival Of The Fittest

This chapter extends the survival-of-the-fittest evolutionary environment to consider the possibility that new political parties, when they first come into existence, do not pick decision rules at random but instead choose rules that have a track record of past success. This is done by adding replicator-mutator dynamics to the model, according to which the probability that each rule is selected by a new party is an evolving but noisy function of that rule's past performance. Estimating characteristic outputs when this type of positive feedback enters the dynamic model creates new methodological challenges. The simulation results show that it is very rare for one decision rule to drive out all others over the long run. While the diversity of decision rules used by party leaders is drastically reduced with such positive feedback in the party system, and while some particular decision rule is typically prominent over a certain period of time, party systems in which party leaders use different decision rules are sustained over substantial periods.

An Important Relationship between Tourism and Hospitality: A Questionnaire Based Survey on Local People, Kolkata, India

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 189
Author(s):  
Shriya Das Mahapatra ◽  
R. K. Patra
Keyword(s):  
Hospitality Management ◽  
Local People ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Urban City ◽  
Important Relationship ◽  
Close Relationship ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
Tourism And Hospitality Industry ◽  
Tourism And Hospitality ◽  
Industry Relationship

It has already been known that recent past tourism depends consistently on hospitality. The present study was aiming to identify the tourism and hospitality industry relationship on the basis of annual income, duration and stay types, tenure of tour, an analysis based survey among local people of Kolkata, India. The survey was done through a questionnaire, which was assessed through random sampling of 200 residents of urban city. The results indicated that lower the income groups but highest duration of stay but tenure of tour may be more than twice per year. In conclusion, people of Kolkata fond of tour because of suitable hospitality management in the tourist spots. Therefore, tourism and hospitality has a close relationship to enhance growth for revenue generation, employment generation, etc.

Core-Plus: Analyzing Past Performance

2001 ◽  
Vol 2001 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-29
Author(s):  
Jae Park
Keyword(s):  
Past Performance

City-region governance in transitional contexts: the case of the BRICS

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-49
Author(s):  
Philip Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Extended Period ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
City Region ◽  
Scholarly Literature ◽  
Path Dependencies ◽  
City Regions ◽  
The World ◽  
The City

Abstract The bulk of the scholarly literature on city-regions and their governance is drawn from contexts where economic and political systems have been stable over an extended period. However, many parts of the world, including all countries in the BRICS, have experienced far-reaching national transformations in the recent past in economic and/or political systems. The national transitions are complex, with a mix of continuity and rupture, while their translation into the scale of the city-region is often indirect. But, these transitions have been significant for the city-region, providing a period of opportunity and institutional fluidity. Studies of the BRICS show that outcomes of transitions are varied but that there are junctures of productive comparison including the ways in which the nature of the transitions create new path dependencies, and way in which interests across territorial scales soon consolidate, producing new rigidities in city-region governance.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document