AbstractPopulations of larvae of the bertha armyworm, Mamestra configurata Wlk., in four physiographic regions of Manitoba showed similar trends over time: a decline from the outbreak of 1971–1972 to very low densities in 1975–1977, an increase to a peak during the years 1979–1981, and a subsequent decline. During the period of peak larval populations, brief (1 or 2 years) outbreaks [at least some fields with > 20 larvae per square metre) occurred at five locations in two regions, the Swan River Plain and the Valley River Plain, but not in the Western Uplands or the Manitoba Lowlands. In the first two regions, larval densities rose rapidly (from < 1.6 to > 13.8/m2) in 1 year. Although the general trend of population density was similar, there were differences in density among and within regions, and in the timing, severity, and duration of peak populations. Two parasitoids (Banchus flavescens Cress., Athrycia cinerea (Coq.)) and two pathogens (a nuclear polyhedrosis virus (NPV) and fungi of the Entomophthorales) occurred regularly in larval populations. Of these, B. flavescens had the highest constancy among collections and may help to keep bertha armyworm populations at low densities. NPV was rarely found among larvae from low-density populations but appeared in all populations that reached outbreak levels. No single biotic agent could be associated with the population declines because of multiple parasitism and the difficulty in partitioning mortality when only a single sample could be taken. The rapid increase of bertha armyworm larvae from very low to outbreak levels in 1 year will prevent predictions of outbreaks from being based on larval densities in the preceding year.
