Quantitative Evaluation of the Trade-Off of Strengthened Instruments and Sample Size in Observational Studies

2018 ◽  
Vol 113 (523) ◽  
pp. 1122-1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashkan Ertefaie ◽  
Dylan S. Small ◽  
Paul R. Rosenbaum
Biometrika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Dukes ◽  
Stijn Vansteelandt

Summary Eliminating the effect of confounding in observational studies typically involves fitting a model for an outcome adjusted for covariates. When, as often, these covariates are high-dimensional, this necessitates the use of sparse estimators, such as the lasso, or other regularization approaches. Naïve use of such estimators yields confidence intervals for the conditional treatment effect parameter that are not uniformly valid. Moreover, as the number of covariates grows with the sample size, correctly specifying a model for the outcome is nontrivial. In this article we deal with both of these concerns simultaneously, obtaining confidence intervals for conditional treatment effects that are uniformly valid, regardless of whether the outcome model is correct. This is done by incorporating an additional model for the treatment selection mechanism. When both models are correctly specified, we can weaken the standard conditions on model sparsity. Our procedure extends to multivariate treatment effect parameters and complex longitudinal settings.


Nephron ◽  
1983 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 192-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Oberholzer ◽  
J. Torhorst ◽  
E. Perret ◽  
M.J. Mihatsch

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (21) ◽  
pp. 15937-15949
Author(s):  
Giorgio Gnecco ◽  
Federico Nutarelli ◽  
Daniela Selvi

Abstract This paper is focused on the unbalanced fixed effects panel data model. This is a linear regression model able to represent unobserved heterogeneity in the data, by allowing each two distinct observational units to have possibly different numbers of associated observations. We specifically address the case in which the model includes the additional possibility of controlling the conditional variance of the output given the input and the selection probabilities of the different units per unit time. This is achieved by varying the cost associated with the supervision of each training example. Assuming an upper bound on the expected total supervision cost and fixing the expected number of observed units for each instant, we analyze and optimize the trade-off between sample size, precision of supervision (the reciprocal of the conditional variance of the output) and selection probabilities. This is obtained by formulating and solving a suitable optimization problem. The formulation of such a problem is based on a large-sample upper bound on the generalization error associated with the estimates of the parameters of the unbalanced fixed effects panel data model, conditioned on the training input dataset. We prove that, under appropriate assumptions, in some cases “many but bad” examples provide a smaller large-sample upper bound on the conditional generalization error than “few but good” ones, whereas in other cases the opposite occurs. We conclude discussing possible applications of the presented results, and extensions of the proposed optimization framework to other panel data models.


2006 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime G. Cuevas ◽  
Doris Soto ◽  
Iván Arismendi ◽  
Mario Pino ◽  
Antonio Lara ◽  
...  

Blood ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (21) ◽  
pp. 4894-4894 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali H. Algiraigri ◽  
Nicola A. Wright ◽  
Aliya Kassam

Abstract Background β-thalassemia major (β-TM) is one of the most common inherited diseases worldwide, characterized by a reduced ability to produce hemoglobin resulting in life-long transfusion-dependent anemia. Chronic transfusions carry significant risks such as infection, and result in iron overload that can cause significant multisystem organ damage. Hydroxyurea, an oral chemotherapeutic drug, is anticipated to decrease the need for transfusions, either completely or partially by raising hemoglobin levels and thus decreasing the short and long term complications of chronic transfusions. Objectives To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of hydroxyurea in β-thalassemia major (β-TM) patients of any age. Search strategy We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), ongoing trials registers, and major preceding conferences. Hand searches were also conducted using reference lists from primary studies. All searches were updated to June 5, 2014. Selection criteria Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies (sample size ≥ 5) assessing the clinical efficacy of hydroxyurea alone for three months or longer, for the treatment of patients with β-TM were included. Data collection and analysis Two authors acted as reviewers and independently assessed study quality and extracted data from the included studies. Authors of included studies were contacted if further information was required. β-TM includes the classical β-TM as well as severe hemoglobin E/β thalassemia, both of which are characterized by lifelong transfusion needs. The effect size was estimated as a proportion (those showing response to treatment over the total number treated) and reported as overall response rate (ORR) or complete response rate (CRR). ORR was defined as ≥ 50% reduction in transfusion need and CRR was defined as complete cessation of regular transfusion. All data was analyzed using Stata, Version 13.0. Results A total of 10 observational studies involving 620 patients were included. Hydroxyurea was associated with a statistically significant decrease in transfusion need with CRR of 36% (95% CI, 23-50%) and ORR of 66% (95% CI, 52-79%). All of the studies had several limitations, such as small sample size, lack of comparison group, under-reporting of data and methods, and being observational studies. Adverse events (AEs) were transient and improved with temporary cessation of the drug and/or adjustment of the dose. No long-term AEs, including cancer or end organ damage were reported. Authors’ conclusion Hydroxyurea appears to be effective in the management of β-TM by decreasing the need for chronic blood transfusions completely or partially in a significant number of patients. It appears to be well tolerated and associated with mild and transient AEs. Patients with β-TM may benefit from a trial of hydroxyurea, though large RCTs assessing efficacy should be done to confirm the findings of this meta-analysis. Disclosures Off Label Use: Hydroxyurea for β-Thalassemia.


Author(s):  
Andreea Costea ◽  
Amy Zhu ◽  
Nadia Polikarpova ◽  
Ilya Sergey

AbstractIn program synthesis there is a well-known trade-off between concise and strong specifications: if a specification is too verbose, it might be harder to write than the program; if it is too weak, the synthesised program might not match the user’s intent. In this work we explore the use of annotations for restricting memory access permissions in program synthesis, and show that they can make specifications much stronger while remaining surprisingly concise. Specifically, we enhance Synthetic Separation Logic (SSL), a framework for synthesis of heap-manipulating programs, with the logical mechanism of read-only borrows.We observe that this minimalistic and conservative SSL extension benefits the synthesis in several ways, making it more (a) expressive (stronger correctness guarantees are achieved with a modest annotation overhead), (b) effective (it produces more concise and easier-to-read programs), (c) efficient (faster synthesis), and (d) robust (synthesis efficiency is less affected by the choice of the search heuristic). We explain the intuition and provide formal treatment for read-only borrows. We substantiate the claims (a)–(d) by describing our quantitative evaluation of the borrowing-aware synthesis implementation on a series of standard benchmark specifications for various heap-manipulating programs.


2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. A432
Author(s):  
T.A. Cox ◽  
E. Gemmen ◽  
M. Nixon ◽  
J. Doyle ◽  
A.J. Burgess ◽  
...  

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 657-666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter F Thall ◽  
Richard C Herrick ◽  
Hoang Q Nguyen ◽  
John J Venier ◽  
J Clift Norris

Background: The efficacy–toxicity trade-off based design is a practical Bayesian phase I–II dose-finding methodology. Because the design’s performance is very sensitive to prior hyperparameters and the shape of the target trade-off contour, specifying these two design elements properly is essential. Purpose: The goals are to provide a method that uses elicited mean outcome probabilities to derive a prior that is neither overly informative nor overly disperse, and practical guidelines for specifying the target trade-off contour. Methods: A general algorithm is presented that determines prior hyperparameters using least squares penalized by effective sample size. Guidelines for specifying the trade-off contour are provided. These methods are illustrated by a clinical trial in advanced prostate cancer. A new version of the efficacy–toxicity program is provided for implementation. Results: Together, the algorithm and guidelines provide substantive improvements in the design’s operating characteristics. Limitations: The method requires a substantial number of elicited values and design parameters, and computer simulations are required to obtain an acceptable design. Conclusion: The two key improvements greatly enhance the efficacy–toxicity design’s practical usefulness and are straightforward to implement using the updated computer program. The algorithm for determining prior hyperparameters to ensure a specified level of informativeness is general, and may be applied to models other than that underlying the efficacy–toxicity method.


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