Delphi forecast of the dry bulk shipping industry in the year 2000†

1989 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 305-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Ariel
Keyword(s):  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Year 2000

A translog cost model of the bulk shipping industry

1987 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. Tolofari ◽  
K. J. Button ◽  
D. E. Pitfield
Keyword(s):  
Cost Model ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Translog Cost

scholarly journals Waves in Ship Prices and Investment *

2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Greenwood ◽  
Samuel G. Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Model ◽  
High Current ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Excess Volatility ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Investment Boom ◽  
Industry Investment ◽  
Investment Response ◽  
Boom And Bust Cycles

Abstract We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low future returns. We propose and estimate a behavioral model of industry cycles that can account for the evidence. In our model, firms overextrapolate exogenous demand shocks and partially neglect the endogenous investment response of their competitors. As a result, firms overpay for ships and overinvest in booms and are disappointed by the subsequent low returns. Formal estimation of the model suggests that modest expectational errors can result in dramatic excess volatility in prices and investment.

scholarly journals Liner shipping cascading effect on Southern African Development Community port strategies

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumayah Goolam Nabee ◽  
Jackie Walters
Keyword(s):  
Customer Service ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Liner Shipping ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
African Development ◽  
Cascading Effect ◽  
Year 2000

Background: The cascading effect in the liner shipping industry has forced the ply of larger ships to Southern African Development Community (SADC) ports. This requires these ports to revise their strategic development to accommodate the resulting shifts in cargo flows to and from these strategic ports in conjunction with hinterland corridor development.Objectives: The purpose of this research was to understand the changing landscape of strategic SADC ports and develop future strategies with regard to liner shipping services.The main objective was to assess the future development needs of the SADC port system in relation to the cascading effect in liner shipping, linked to the development of hinterland corridors, identifying the limitations and opportunities of each port.Method: Descripto-exploratory research and analysis of secondary data were used. An extensive research of 552 sources (journal articles, research reports, books, newspaper and magazine articles and webpages) dating mostly from the year 2000 onwards were analysed.Results: Durban will remain the preferred container hub port for the foreseeable future if the port can increase its capacity and offer superior customer service in relation to competing ports in the region, such as Maputo, Walvis Bay and Ngqura. Durban is well adapted to accommodate the port and landside requirements resulting from the cascading effect. This is most evident in the depth of the port and port-side handling equipment. The findings confirm that the success of other SADC ports and corridors are subject to regional cooperation and integration without which the dominance of the port of Durban and the Maputo and North–South corridors will continue.Conclusion: The findings of the research indicate that Durban is ideally suited to develop further as a container hub port for the SADC region. This development is subject to a more competitive port landscape in the region as other ports such as Maputo, Walvis Bay and Ngqura improve their liner shipping service offering.

The Dynamics of Dry Bulk Shipping Market Under the Shipping Cycle Perspective: Market Relationships and Volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (11) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yijie Wu ◽  
Jingbo Yin ◽  
Pan Sheng
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Recovery Period ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Freight Rate ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Freight Market

The shipping industry plays an essential role in world trade. For shipping companies, having an accurate view of the markets and grasp of the interactions between the freight market, second-hand ship market, and the newbuild ship markets is essential. The shipping market cycles are divided into four periods (trough, recovery, peak, and recession) based upon shipping cycle theory. The current shipping markets have been stuck in the trough period since the financial crisis in 2008. This paper investigates the recovery period and causality relationship between the freight rate, second-hand price, and new-build ship price, in the dry bulk shipping market and applies the Granger causality test at each stage of the cycle based on quantitative analysis. The results show that the recovery period and causality relationship can be identified only during the trough and peak periods. When comparing the results for the trough period before and after the financial crisis, we find similarities between the two periods, leading us to conclude that the shipping cycle rules still apply.

A MODIFIED DUOPOLY GAME MODEL IN BULK COMMODITY TRANSPORTATION MARKETS

2007 ◽  
Vol 09 (02) ◽  
pp. 269-284
Author(s):  
ZHIYONG YANG ◽  
A. N. PERAKIS
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Solution ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Capacity Constraints ◽  
Game Model ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Active Player ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Player Game ◽  
Prediction Capability

In this paper, we try to analyze the interactions among the shippers and the carriers, including the rail and marine shipping industry, in the bulk shipping market. Our paper presents both a two-player game model, and a two-stage, three-player, game model that includes the buyer as an active player. Assuming the players have complete information, we derive an analytical solution to a two-stage, three-player game with capacity constraints. We also present a numerical algorithm to solve a two-stage, three-player game with complete information. A grain transportation scenario in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway is used to illustrate our models. The results suggest that the two-stage, three-player game model has a better prediction capability than the duopoly game model in the bulk shipping competition problem.

scholarly journals The Construction and Implication of Group Scale Efficiency Evaluation Model for Bulk Shipping Corporations

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bor-Hong Lin ◽  
Hsuan-Shih Lee ◽  
Cheng-Chi Chung
Keyword(s):  
High Efficiency ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Operating Efficiency ◽  
Scale Efficiency ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Bulk Shipping ◽  
Decision Making Unit ◽  
Overall Efficiency

The shipping industry pursues high efficiency and low cost of chartering operations for bulk shipping market depression. Each type of ship’s operational efficiency in bulk shipping corporations is more important than the corporation’s overall efficiency. In order to evaluate the efficiency gap between various ship types’ efficiency and overall efficiency, the research first assessed the performance by a decision making unit (DMU), and evaluated voyage charter (V/C) performance by the time charter equivalent (TCE). It also measured the distance between group scale efficiency (GSE) and average group scale efficiency (AGSE) by the data envelopment analysis (DEA). DEA is able to compare the difference between the group efficiency and overall efficiency, the AGSE value, to explore the direction and extent of the overall efficiency improvement. In the research, the V/C service of Panamax, Supramax, and Handymax is considered as the DMU, to calculate the efficiency of different ship types separately. Then, it employs TCE to measure and the DEA method to compare AGSE. The larger the AGSE value, the better the efficiency. Based on the results, in order to improve the overall operating efficiency of bulk shipping corporations, AGSE should be more emphasized than TCE and GSE. The results can provide professional managers of bulk shipping corporations with the basis for a strategic decision of chartering operations.

Key success factors of international market development

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiu-Fen Lin ◽  
Kai-Lin Chang
Keyword(s):  
Success Factors ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
International Market ◽  
International Strategy ◽  
Environmental Scanning ◽  
Shipping Industry ◽  
Organizational Capability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Success Factors ◽  
Bulk Shipping

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop an evaluation model to determine the relative weights of key factors influencing international market development (IMD) success through analysis network process (ANP) during group decision-making. An empirical case of the Taiwan bulk shipping industry is used to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach. Design/methodology/approach The literature review is performed to generate 20 key success factors (KSFs) along with four factor categories in IMD (such as organizational capability, environmental scanning, international strategy and internationalization behavior). Then, ANP is applied to develop an evaluation model that prioritizes the relative importance linking the above four factor categories with 20 evaluated KSFs. Findings With respect to the final weights for factor categories, “international strategy” and “environmental scanning” are the two most important criteria, followed by “organizational capability” and “internationalization behavior”. The results also showed that by reviewing the global weights of the 20 KSFs of IMD, “service as competitive advantage”, “market potential” and “risk taking” have the highest rankings. Practical implications The findings indicate that firm expansion into international markets typically depends on a successful international strategy. Hence, to enhance their global market competitiveness, Taiwan bulk shipping firms should focus their efforts on planning international market entry strategy and prioritizing shipping services with high-potential target markets. Originality/value Theoretically, the study results can provide both theoretical basis and empirical evidence, indicating the relative weights and priorities of KSFs of IMD for the Taiwan bulk shipping industry. From the managerial perspective, the analytical results can help managers focus on main factors and identify the best policy to improve their IMD practice and performance.

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